Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:17 AM   Moonset 10:04 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1026 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - North winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 300548 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 148 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease a stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario with a few lingering showers possible east of Lake Ontario. After 3 am, we will have to start watching to our northwest where showers and storms associated with the approaching cold front will start to enter western New York.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger convection
Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A mid-level ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm air advection will move into the forecast area through Friday night. There is a low to medium chance for showers with the greatest chance during the afternoon hours on Friday. Model packages show the potential for two cold fronts to move across the region this weekend. Confidence is low on the timing of these cold fronts and therefore there are low to medium chances for showers Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain above normal Friday through the start of the next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A stationary front lies across western NY with a light northeast flow on the north side of the front. The front will move north overnight with clouds and showers developing from the Finger Lakes region northward. To the west, a cold front extends from Lower Michigan to Indiana with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will approach the region overnight, however most of the showers will remain northwest of the region. There is greater confidence in some showers brushing KIAG and KBUF after 09z.
Ceilings will lower from the west with MVFR/IFR conditions across most of the region by daybreak Tuesday.

The cold front will move across the entire region Tuesday with steady, light to moderate showers moving west to east through the day. Flight conditions will remain IFR or lower through Tuesday.
There is low confidence in any thunderstorms developing.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure gradients remains weak.

There will periodic showers or thunderstorms Tuesday before dry weather returns for the mid week period.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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