Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Morris, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:39PM Friday May 24, 2019 1:27 PM EDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 637 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201905241515;;377749 FZUS51 KBUF 241037 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 637 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-241515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Morris, NY
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location: 42.73, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241455
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1055 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
Cool and generally quiet conditions will continue over the area
as high pressure advances eastward through tonight. Conditions
will then deteriorate late tonight through Saturday night due to
a pair of frontal systems which will push through the region.

High pressure will then ridge southward from canada and into the
great lakes providing mainly dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

Near term through Saturday
Cyclonic northwesterly flow continues to dominate the forecast
area late this morning with remnant upslope shower activity
still plaguing especially lewis county. As the afternoon ensues,
low convective temperatures will likely preclude much in the
wave of progressive clearing even with the system to our east
departing, however its departure may be enough to counteract low
convective temperatures in terms of additional cloud expansion.

Thus, the status quo was generally held in skies for the
afternoon with a fairly wide range in temperatures dependent
upon the amount of insolation through the day... With the western
portions of the area away from water decidedly warmer than the
eastern portions.

Going into the evening and overnight hours, the remnants of the
mcs over ia and wi this morning will make a futile attempt to
crest the ridge sprawling through the great lakes. Hi-res model
solutions really eviscerate this MCS as it attempts to do this,
while the larger scale models hang onto some semblance of narrow
lifting on the front side of the circulation associated with the
decaying remnant mesolow. Low end pops were still maintained
across wny and the western southern tier for this during the
evening hours before dry conditions resume.

The mid-level ridge axis passes east of the CWA on Saturday
morning, allowing for flow to rapidly become southerly and then
southwesterly across the area with a warm front advancing
through the cwa. This will bring much more humid conditions into
the CWA as evidenced by pwat values jumping progressively
through the day toward 1.75 inches. With the warm frontal
passage, the deepest moisture and corridor of favored ascent
with a leading short wave looks to be just to the north of the
area with weaker moisture and shear fields farther south. Thus,
the best chances of precipitation from the warm frontal passage
looks to be just to our north, however things look to get a bit
more interesting once we are entrenched in the warm sector by
the afternoon.

With the aforementioned soupy 1.75 inch pwat environment
sprawled across most of new york state by Saturday afternoon,
and MUCAPE values vaulting toward 1000-1200 j kg, especially
over the southern tier, with 0-6 km bulk shear values on the
order of 35 kts, convective development seems a fairly good bet.

Activity seems likely to kick off fairly early with additional
redevelopment as the mesoscale environment plays out in terms
outflow interactions. That said, hi-res guidance is going
absolutely loopy in the warm sector. However, given that the
best shear doesn't start to arrive until very late in the day or
into the evening, and the apex of warm air doesn't get to our
area until this juncture, it would seem the best potential for
anything severe would hold off until then. That said, SPC does
have the area west of i-390 in a slight risk, and it would seem
the time period closer to the evening on Saturday would be the
window for this. Further, it would seem heavy rain would be more
problematic, anyway. Deep moisture, weakened afternoon shear,
and the potential for successive rounds of convective activity
will yield potential for heavy rain accumulations. This could
lead to localized flooding.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
Sunday a weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the
region. We will still be on the humid side to start the day and
a few showers or thunderstorms remain possible through the
afternoon as we'll remain unstable. This precipitation will end
through Sunday early evening as moisture depletes as surface
high pressure over canada funnels drier air southward. Skies
will clear through the night with overnight temperatures
dropping back into the lower 50s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Increased ridging will begin on Monday over the eastern third of the
country. This will provide rainfree conditions for Monday, with
comfortable levels of humidity as surface high pressure to the north
pushes drier air southward.

As the ridge strengthens over the southeast u.S., a similar scenario
to this weeks weather will take shape. The ridge over the southeast
u.S. Will cause waves of low pressure to trek northeast out of
western half of the country where a trough will be in place. Waves
of low pressure will increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday across western and north
central ny.

Ahead of these areas of low pressure warming temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will bring highs across the area to the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A passing cold front late Wednesday early Thursday will
bring slightly below normal temperates to the area with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
A closed low will settle across maine this morning which will
increase moisture and result in cloud cover and lower cigs
through the morning hours. This will result in areas of MVFR
clouds, especially east of lake ontario but also south of lake
ontario where these clouds will be more patchy in nature.

Cloud bases will lift late this morning, and eventually scatter
out this afternoon and evening with widespreadVFR flight
conditions. A warm front will approach from the southwest late
tonight. This will result in an area of low to mid level clouds
and possibly a shower or thunderstorm west of rochester near
daybreak Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Some storms could produce gusty winds.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds have picked up behind a cold front, which will support
small craft advisory conditions this morning, particularly along
the southeastern shores of lake ontario.

Winds will then subside this afternoon as high pressure will
push east from the upper great lakes. Generally light winds and
negligible waves can then be anticipated tonight and Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
A cold front has moved across the area with westerly winds
producing higher waves, especially across the eastern half of
lake ontario. This combined with very high lake levels will
result in flooding along the shorelines of wayne... Northern
cayuga... And oswego counties. Winds and waves will diminish by
this afternoon which will lower the flooding concerns.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries
short term... Thomas
long term... Sw thomas
aviation... Apffel rsh
marine... Apffel rsh
tides coastal flooding... Jjr apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 39 mi46 min 60°F 1018.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 40 mi88 min NW 13 G 14 56°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 55 mi40 min WSW 11 G 15

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY13 mi34 minNNW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F54°F63%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SW9
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W7
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W6W7
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N6N6N5N5N6NW8NW12NW14
G21
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1 day agoS5S6SE7SE7SE10SE11SE8SE9--S6SE9S7S7S5S4S7S8SE8SE6SE7E6CalmCalmSE5
2 days agoN13N11NW12N13N15
G21
N13
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NW5CalmS3S3Calm3SE3SE6SE5S6SE6SE5SE5SE3CalmSE8E11SE12
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.