Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:02AM||Sunset 4:52PM||Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:56 PM EST (02:56 UTC)||Moonrise 12:12PM||Moonset 9:54PM||Illumination 35%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Morris, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbuf 140234|
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
934 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
Cold air will filter into the region overnight behind a system
that's moving northeast into the canadian maritimes. This will
result in bands of lake effect snow downwind of lake erie and
lake ontario on a northwest flow. A stronger band setup is
likely southeast of lake ontario later tonight into Wednesday,
while the rest of western new york sees dry weather. The next
system will begin to impact the region late Thursday and last
Near term through Wednesday
The main event through Wednesday will be the development of a
multi-lake connection snow band that affects areas SE of lake
ontario. The band it patchy this evening, but radar trends show
this band beginning to focus on northern portions of wayne and
cayuga counties and southern oswego county. Although there is a
wide range among high resolution guidance, confidence is high
enough for a strong single lake band or two separate bands
moving across the region by late tonight into Wednesday morning.
A single band would be focused squarely on an area from
northern or NE wayne county east to western oswego. All high res
models pinpoint this area with peak intensity between ~08-14z
Wednesday, which is often a period of intensification due to
shoreline convergence and or land breezes. There is some
disagreement to how stationary the band will be though. If it
wanders, then amounts may be more spread out and a little lower
than forecast. But with peak lake effect season underway, plus a
good triple lake connection signal, will place amounts on the
higher side with 3-6 hours of up to 2" snow rates. Some models
suggest two separate bands moving through the region overnight
while others create a single band. With the former, parts of
monroe county could see some bursts of snow, so have placed the
rochester area into an advisory. If a single band results, then
areas east of rochester will have higher amounts. Href amounts
are a little on the light side compared to the current forecast
due to some differences between the hrw nmmb member and the nam
nest being a little out of sync with the hrw nssl and arw. The
duration of this event should be relatively short which should
keep amounts from getting out of control. Still, expect a narrow
swath of around a foot of snow with the usual variability and
localized higher lower amounts.
Storm totals within the band may approach a narrow peak of 15"
bulls-eyed somewhere from about wolcott to fulton and or
phoenix, with far less 10-20 miles away from the peak. Areas on
the north side of the band, from about mexico to parish should
see only a few inches. Areas to the west toward rochester should
see upwards of about 5" with amounts decreasing to the south
and or southwest toward the thruway.
Outside of this, expect scattered snow showers tonight. There
should be a weaker lake erie multi-band with some upslope flow,
but with notably shorter fetch with only a weak short-fetch
connection to lake huron, amounts should be more spread out and
unimpressive when compared to neighboring lake ontario. Expect
variable accumulation as is often the case with multi-bands,
peaking in the 1 to 3 inch range and mainly overnight.
By Wednesday afternoon, surface high pressure will be moving in
and weakening the lake ontario band. There is some disagreement
as to how the lake band will dissolve or move in response to
the approaching subsident and drying airmass. The band may fall
apart or slowly weaken as it moves east northeast in the
Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Northwest flow over lake ontario will rapidly end on Wednesday
evening as flow turns southeasterly in advance of the next system
pushing toward the area. Warm advection will likewise be starting
off the deck concurrent with the wind shift, which should further
decrease instability, and thus allow for dissipation of snow shower
activity. A dry night and most of the early part of Thursday will
follow as clearing skies are replaced with high clouds on the heels
of increased isentropic ascent aloft in warm advection.
Lift in the 295-305k layer increases rapidly in the afternoon on
Thursday and into Thursday evening. Warm advection will be working
against evaporational cooling while achieving condensation pressure
deficits that fall below 10 mb with strong moisture transport from
the south in the layer. That said, isentropic omegas take a tad
longer to reach the southern tier in a coherent way such that
lighter precipitation rates will probably allow for some warmer air
off the deck to linger through the afternoon and evening hours. The
net result will be a chance of a wintry mix over western new york,
especially the southern tier, as precipitation spreads northward.
Deeper lifting profiles and some dynamical cooling should transition
everyone to snow overnight with a few inches of wet accumulation
likely in most spots given inefficient snow-to-liquid ratio
On Friday, weakening moisture depth as the system that will have
been moving northward toward our area fills and a coastal low takes
over combined with a low-level seclusion of warm air west of
the appalachian chain that bulges northward toward our area will
result in a gradual changeover to rain in most spots as the
boundary layer warms. Further, the reduction in the lifting
profile will also mean a switch from steady rainfall to drizzle
at some point. That said, this will be short-lived, as the
coastal low takes over and flow turns westerly again and
strengthens into the weekend. This should allow for colder
continental air to move back toward the area with some lake
Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great lakes
and northeastern states in the extended portion of the forecast...
resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures.
Speaking more specifically... We can expect daily highs to mostly be in
the 30s... While nightly lows range from the upper teens lower 20s across
the north country to the mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Such readings will
be more typical of mid-winter than the middle of november.
While below average temperatures remain a virtual lock in the long
term... The models have rather markedly diverged away from yesterday's
modest agreement on the path... Timing... And strength of any migratory
surface troughs that might affect our region during this time frame...
and by extension the orientation and strength of the resultant low
level wind field across our region at any given point. As such...
forecast confidence in the timing placement of both synoptically-
driven and lake-driven precipitation has significantly decreased...
and have therefore had to transition to the use of broadbrush chance
pops for the bulk of this period. Given current forecast temperatures...
the bulk of any precipitation will likely fall in the form of
Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Expect mainlyVFR conditions outside of lake effect snows. These
will be southeast of the lakes, which will impact kjhw and kroc
at times tonight with a period of ifr or lower conditions
possible. A brief lake effect snow shower cannot be ruled out
at kbuf or kiag. Conditions will vary considerably with the
heavy lake effect snow likely to fall southeast of lake ontario
and between TAF sites. Otherwise, expect just lake effect clouds
which should remain in theVFR flight category.
Lake effect snows will become less organized late Wednesday
morning, with mainlyVFR conditions during the day at TAF sites.
Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR.
Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr possible in rain and or
Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible
east of both lakes in lake rain and or snow.
An area of low pressure will deepen as it moves into the
canadian maritimes overnight. A northwest wind around this area
of low pressure will increase tonight, bringing both winds and
waves to small craft advisory thresholds. High pressure will
then cross the lakes Wednesday and bring diminishing winds and
waves on the lakes, with scas ending.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Wednesday for nyz004>006.
Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for nyz003.
Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Wednesday for lez040-041.
Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for
Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Wednesday for
Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Wednesday for loz042.
Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Apffel zaff
short term... Fries
long term... Jjr
aviation... Apffel zaff
marine... Apffel zaff
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY||39 mi||45 min||31°F|
|RPRN6 - Rochester, NY||40 mi||57 min||WSW 8 G 9.9||30°F|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||55 mi||39 min||WNW 17 G 23||32°F||45°F||1023.7 hPa||18°F|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY||13 mi||63 min||N 0||7.00 mi||Light Snow||31°F||26°F||82%||1023.6 hPa|
Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||S|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||W||W||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||Calm||Calm||N||NW||Calm||S||S||Calm||Calm|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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