Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Morris, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:47PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 918 Am Est Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Monday evening...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Scattered flurries late this morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Snow, mainly through midday. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mixed precipitation. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201902172215;;077271 FZUS51 KBUF 171418 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 918 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-172215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Morris, NY
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location: 42.73, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 172333
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
633 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moves across the southern mid-atlantic states tonight
and will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall that will persist
into Monday morning. Some lake effect snow showers will then fill
out Monday afternoon. A little freezing drizzle will also be
possible south of lake ontario during the second half of tonight and
Monday morning. Dry and cool conditions follow for Tuesday before
more active weather returns Wednesday.

Near term through Monday
Regional radars display the leading bands of snow now spreading
northward into the southern tier, with embedded segments producing
snowfall rates up to an 1" per hour.

Isentropic ascent in the 285-295k layer gradually increases and
erodes a dry layer progressively this evening. This will produce a
more widespread area of snow that will work its way across the
region tonight. There is better model consensus on the track of the
system from the 12z cycle today as compared to previous cycles, and
with a track as such, some drying out of the dendritic layer seems
more likely generally south of buffalo and rochester across the
majority of the southern tier. This will allow for a few hours of
snowfall before it starts to taper off to an utterly microphysically
inefficient snow and mixes with or ends up as purely freezing
drizzle. The freezing drizzle will be noted by a lack of moisture to
efficiently produce snowflakes within the snow dendritic growth
zone.

As you go farther north into the area, saturation of the
dendritic layer seems more likely, thus precipitation is more
likely to remain as all snow. The rough dividing line still
seems poised to be the thruway, so and the previous forecast
captured this fairly well. All in all, though, a warm advection
snow with the dendritic layer well off the ground and a high
degree of riming seems unlikely to yield a terribly efficient
snow anywhere. Thus, with ratios generally suppressed below
10 12:1 even in the areas that remain all snow, a very high
upside QPF surprise would be necessary to eclipse advisory
criteria. Favored QPF regimes slightly lower than the NAM and
more in line with the GFS sref still yield near to or slightly
less than 4 inches across the thruway corridor, so going
advisories look to be in good shape. Farther south, less snow
will yield to more freezing drizzle, so the advisories there
still look to be prudent. Farther north, better saturation of
the dendritic layer through the lifting period yields all snow,
however with the best lift to the south, QPF still seems likely
to limit snow accumulations below advisory criteria.

The system departs on Monday, with weak northwesterly flow in
its wake. Slight cold advection in the cold as well as
additional instability seem likely to cool the column enough to
saturate the dendritic layer so that freezing drizzle should
transition back to snow showers or flurries everywhere.

Temperatures look to remain below freezing across the board
through the near term period even with a somewhat flat
temperature curve across western new york during the overnight
hours.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Expansive surface high pressure centered over the northern plains
will build across the upper portions of the mississippi valley and
great lakes Monday night. A weakening northwest flow will result in
some flurries and light snow showers, mainly along the south shore
of lake ontario. It will be a noticeably colder night with low
temperatures forecast to range from 10 to 15 under the blanket of
lake induced clouds in the above described area, to the single
digits in the southern tier and close to zero or just below zero for
the north country.

Surface high pressure will gradually slide through the region
Tuesday. Conditions look marginally supportive for perhaps some very
light lake effect snow showers or flurries, generally along the
south shore of lake ontario. However, this lake effect potential
will be tempered by limited moisture, weak boundary layer winds, and
subsidence aloft. Otherwise, skies should become partly sunny
with mainly sunny skies for the north country.

The center of the high will drift off to the east during Tuesday
night with subtle warm air advection developing on weak southwest
flow during the night. This will bring about an end to any lingering
light lake effect by evening, with high clouds increasing from the
west.

Latest guidance continues to point to Wednesday for the arrival of
our next widespread precipitation event. A developing surface low
will eject from the plains into the great lakes, spreading snow into
western new york by late morning or early afternoon, then
overspreading the remainder of the area through early Wednesday
night. Precipitation type is going to become the main concern
starting Wednesday afternoon and heading into Wednesday night
as warmer air aloft arrives on a strengthening southwesterly low
level jet. There looks to be a several hour period where sleet
or freezing rain may become the predominant precipitation as a
transitions to rain occurs, particularly west of the finger
lakes. It stands to reason that some accumulating snow will be
possible before the transition, or further north where the
transition will occur later. Accumulations of snow or ice at
this point do not look significant, but travel could certainly
be impacted during this time frame, so will place this
potential in the hazardous weather outlook product.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
On Thursday weak low pressure will track from southern ontario
province into northern new england. The bulk of the precipitation
will be done by Thursday, with some lingering mixed precipitation
which will exit to the east late in the day. The cold front
associated with this system will be weak, with latest model
consensus only dropping 850mb temperatures to -9c which is not cold
enough to support lake effect snow behind the system on Thursday
night. This will be followed by high pressure which will build
across the region Friday and Friday night. Some clouds may linger
due to moisture trapped beneath an inversion, but it will be dry
with highs in the mid to upper 30s on Friday.

On Saturday a trough will dig into northern texas, with surface low
pressure associated likely to track across the great lakes region on
Sunday. The 12z GFS and some ensemble members flatten out this
shortwave which would have a weak surface low pass to the south of
the area. However, the 12z ECMWF ggem guidance track intensifying
low pressure across the central great lakes, which is preferred
given the better model and run to run agreement on this solution.

Favorable jet dynamics may result in some light rain or snow on
Saturday before a strengthening southerly flow advects warm and
moist air and changes precipitation over to all rain south of
lake ontario. Depending on the track of the system, snow or
mixed precipitation may last a bit longer across the north
country. This track would also be favorable for strong winds
Saturday night and Sunday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
For the 00z tafsVFR flight conditions will deteriorate to ifr over
the next 2 to 4 hours south of lake ontario, and just past midnight
east of lake ontario. A period of snow tonight will begin to taper
off after 12z tomorrow. Drier air eroding the deeper moisture may
allow for some mixing of freezing drizzle tonight, and this will be
especially true across the so. Tier, including the kjhw terminal.

Some patches of freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out across kbuf,
kiag and kroc tonight.

As a surface low tracks across the southern mid-atlantic winds will
become northerly tomorrow with snow tapering off through the midday
hours. Flight conditions will improve toVFR from north to south
tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Mainly dry with continued MVFR-level stratus during the
day... Then improvement toVFR Tuesday night.

Wednesday... Deterioration to MVFR ifr with light mixed precipitation
becoming likely. Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow and rain
showers.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
A broad area of low pressure will push northeastward across
the ohio valley this afternoon and evening... Before sliding
eastward across the southern tier overnight... And then out to
sea Monday morning. As it does so... Brisk northeasterly winds
will develop across lake ontario through the overnight before
finally turning more northerly and weakening on Monday. With
this in mind... Small craft advisories have been hoisted for all
nearshore zones along the south shore of lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est Monday for nyz003>005-
013-014.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Monday for nyz001-002-
010>012-019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Monday for loz043.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Monday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Monday for loz044.

Synopsis... Jjr thomas
near term... Fries thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Apffel
aviation... Thomas
marine... Fries jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 39 mi41 min 26°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 40 mi23 min E 18 G 23 25°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 55 mi35 min ENE 11 G 15 22°F 32°F1012.4 hPa10°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY13 mi29 minN 01.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F85%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmSE5SE4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE4E3NE33E8E8SE5NE7CalmSE7SE12SE6Calm
1 day agoW8W8W5NW9NW846SW8--W3NW8NW8NW12NW12NW12N13W9NW12NW10NW9NW11N8N7NW4
2 days agoSE7SE6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.