Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Argentine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:33PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ423 Expires:201903150145;;390439 Fzus73 Kdtx 150100 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lhz442-443-463-464-150145- /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0001.000000t0000z-190315t0145z/ 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 945 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 900 pm edt, strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 nm east of harbor beach to near lexington to 18 nm northwest of wyandotte, moving northeast at 40 knots. Hazard...wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Lexington and lakeport around 905 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 945 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include richmondville. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4292 8246 4262 8252 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4215 8313 4214 8322 4233 8312 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4322 8256 4365 8263 4384 8228 4385 8218 4359 8212 time...mot...loc 0100z 234deg 38kt 4375 8231 4323 8251 4239 8350 hail...<.75in wind...>34kts
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.73, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 181108
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
708 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Aviation
Occasional showers will be prevalent today as mild moist airmass
continues to funnel through the forecast area ahead of approaching
cold front best chance of thunderstorms will be on nose of low level
jet this morning as elevated pocket of instability lifts north thru
the area (si of -2 -3c). Cold front settles through the area this
evening with rain then overspreading area, especially kfnt southeast
as wave of low pressure lifts north into the ohio valley by Friday
morning. Ceilings of MVFR to occasional ifr, most persistent from
evening on through the end of the forecast period.

For dtw... Showers with a few thunderstorms will move into terminal
13z-14z with off on showers throughout the day. Steady rain then
sets up during course of the evening and persists overnight. Cigs
should become consistently MVFR and ifr at times tonight. Ssw flow
will also gust to 25 knots or so midday before pressure gradient
relaxes with frontal boundary later today.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in CIGS at or below 5000 feet.

* medium for thunderstorms impacting terminal early in the forecast,
roughly 13z-15z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
discussion...

near term today through tonight
as of 335 am edt... Surface warm front continues to slowly lift
northward through lower michigan early this morning in response to
surface low pressure tracking northeast across the straits. The
passage of the warm front will entrench all of southeast michigan in
the warm sector around or shortly after daybreak, with near steady
to slowly rising temperatures (through the 50s to lower 60s) and
dewpoints (through the 40s to lower 50s) anticipated the remainder
of the early morning hours. Earlier line of showers and
thunderstorms that moved across southern portions of the region the
prior evening has exited to the east, and outside of a few scattered
showers associated with the parent low over northern lower, dry
weather and increasing clouds will prevail through daybreak.

Remnant convection lifting northeast from the lower missouri valley
will reach areas south of the i-96 696 corridor 8am-10am as it
continues weakening with time. Could be a few rumbles of thunder
with this activity with slightly negative showalter indices present.

After a potential lull in convective coverage mid late morning,
gradually increasing coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms
will then prevail over the course of the afternoon into the evening,
with activity initially focused west and shifting east with time.

Northern stream energy diving southeast from the northern plains
will act to dig and deepen a longwave trough over the east-central
conus as the day progresses, which will act to help slow the
eastward progression of the system cold front especially this
afternoon into this evening. Anomalously high moisture content ahead
of the cold front, exhibited by near-record pwat values for the date
exceeding 1.25 inches, will ride the heels of a strong 50-60 knot
llj with the nose pointed directly over southeast michigan by this
evening. Isentropic ascent along the 305-310 k surfaces will also
lead to added lift heading into this evening.

Severe threat continues to be very minimal, despite favorable
kinematics. Increasing cloud cover will act to limit high
temperature potential, with solid 60s for most areas outside around
70 readings for areas east of us 23 and south of m-59. Surface
dewpoints rising well into the 50s though will yield at least a few
hundred j kg of surface-based instability, but poor midlevel lapse
rates around 6 c km at best will be a sign of gradually waning
elevated instability. So, with the high moisture environment in
place, locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threat associated
with thunderstorms. Heaviest totals will occur east of the us 23 i-
75 corridor, as colder air rushing in behind the slowly passing cold
front weakens instability significantly and resultant higher rain
rates.

Despite the abundant cloud cover today, the warm sector does look to
get well-mixed by the afternoon hours, as southwest flow strengthens
in an increasing isallobaric regime. Strongest gusts will occur
closer to the ohio border, where gusts of 25-35 mph will be
possible. Will need to watch mixing depths closely though, as a
deeper boundary layer will be able to tap higher winds aloft and may
result in a pop of wind closer to 40 mph late morning early
afternoon detroit metro south.

The cold front slows to a near halt just east of the forecast area
overnight as a secondary wave of low pressure ripples up the
boundary. This wave will likely be convectively-enhanced by
convection closer to the gulf coast, resulting in a deeper than
usual frontal wave. The result will be increased deformation forcing
over a large portion of the region especially after midnight.

Potential for training convection still looks possible across far
southeastern areas, including the detroit metro where additional
heavy rain will be possible towards daybreak Friday. Amounts by
Friday morning could very well easily exceed an inch for these
areas, and possibly closer to 2 inches should thunderstorms occur.

For more on QPF amounts and heavy rainfall flooding potential, both
in the near and short term, see the hydrology section below. Cold
air advection behind the front will allow low temperatures to
plummet into the 40s. These colder temperatures will all but erase
convective instability, with heavy rainfall forcing overnight being
driven by more winter-like deformation dynamics and mesoscale fgen.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
increasingly meridionally-amplified longwave trough will close off
in the vicinity of the tennessee valley Friday, as the
aforementioned wave of low pressure slowly lifts northeast towards
eastern lake erie by Friday evening. Deformation forcing amidst a
diffluent mid upper-level height field over the region will result
in continued scattered to numerous rain showers. Tight pressure
gradient across the region will result in a breezy day, with
northerly winds on the backside of the low gusting 30-35 mph. The
cooling influence of the rain and northerly flow will only result in
high temperatures reaching the mid 40s to lower 50s, coldest in the
thumb downwind of lake huron.

At least scattered coverage of showers will continue through Friday
night and into Saturday as the closed low lifts north slightly
retrogrades westward with additional pieces of shortwave energy
rotating around the northern periphery providing periods of enhanced
dynamic lift across the region.

Increasing midlevel heights butting into the closed low from the
west will then finally act to push it far enough eastward by late
Saturday to result in decreasing coverage of precipitation. Another
cool day in store for Saturday with highs in the 50s, warmest across
the tri-cities where the farthest displacement away from the low
should lead to least coverage of showers and possible breaks in
cloud cover. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be in the upper
30s to near 40.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
shortwave ridging building in behind the departing closed low will
ensure a pleasant and dry easter Sunday. Conditions then once again
become increasingly unsettled for early next week as a cold front
sags south across the region. Long range guidance is struggling with
the intensity of waves riding along the passing frontal boundary,
but will continue to keep chance pops late Monday into Tuesday.

Additional energy ejecting out of the southern plains may then bring
another round of precipitation to the region beyond the extended
period.

Temperatures will moderate easter Sunday and Monday back into the
60s, with slightly cooler air behind the cold front passage
resulting in slightly below normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday.

Marine...

southerly winds will continue this morning as a warm front is drawn
north by low pressure passing through the northern great lakes. This
mild flow will limit wind gusts to 20 knots or so in most locations.

However, mixing looks to be strong enough, at least for a time, over
far southern areas for wind gusts to reach 25 knots or a bit more
over the western lake erie nearshore. Winds will then weaken from
this afternoon into this evening as they veer to the southwest. A
small craft advisory will be issued for the michigan waters of lake
erie and lake st. Clair to account for this period of gusty winds
today.

A cold front will push through the region tonight into Friday
morning and shift winds to the north. This will increase instability
over the lakes and bring gusty onshore winds and high wave action
within a strong pressure gradient in the wake of this front. These
conditions will persist through Saturday as trailing low pressure
maintains this tight pressure gradient and north to northeast flow
region. Small craft advisories will be issued for the lake huron
nearshore.

Hydrology...

expect rain and periodic thunderstorms today as an increasingly mild
and moist airmass is pulled north into the region in advance of an
approaching cold front. A well organized convective cluster, now
over missouri and illinois, will spread in the area this morning
with more to follow this afternoon as the cold front eases east
through the region and provides increased low level forcing later
today. General rainfall amounts into the afternoon will range in the
one quarter to one half in range with locally higher amounts from
thunderstorm activity.

By this evening and overnight, the heaviest rainfall will begin to
focus over southeastern portions of the area as the cold front
shifts east of the area and low pressure lifts northeast into ohio
valley and leads to strong elevated warm air advection back up the
frontal surface. While a few thunderstorms may occur, this activity
will organize into a more general area or rain, some of which will
be heavy at times which will bleed into Friday morning before this
wave of low pressure shifts to the northeast. Rainfall totals during
this period will vary greatly to less than a quarter of an inch in
the saginaw valley to perhaps an inch or more over far southeastern
areas from parts of metro detroit to the ohio border.

While the flood potential remains limited in terms of widespread
flooding on area streams and rivers, there will be a risk of
significant ponding of water and flooding of low lying and poorly
drained areas. This will be especially true over the portions of
metro detroit that end up receiving the most persistent periods of
heavy rainfall tonight since runoff will be enhanced within the
urban areas.

Rainfall can expected Friday night into Saturday as a trailing upper
low pressure system re-invigorates the elevated southeasterly feed
of moisture back over the area. Upwards of an additional one half an
inch of rain will be quite possible.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 4 am Friday to 4 pm edt Saturday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 58 mi45 min SSW 12 G 25 64°F 1003 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 75 mi87 min S 17 G 19 54°F 999 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
E13
G17
E12
G16
E10
G14
E12
G17
E10
E9
E10
G13
E9
G12
NE5
G8
NE11
N1
--
SE8
S12
G18
S11
G15
S11
G18
SW10
G15
S6
G10
SW10
G14
SW8
G13
SW6
G12
SW15
G22
S15
G27
SW16
G27
1 day
ago
SW11
G15
SW6
G9
S8
G14
SW9
G14
SW6
G10
SW9
G12
N4
NE2
E10
G13
NE12
G17
E11
E13
NE11
G14
NE11
NE8
G13
E12
NE8
G13
NE8
G13
E12
E13
G18
E13
G18
E15
E13
G16
E15
2 days
ago
NW15
G21
W13
G21
W15
G23
NW15
G22
W10
G16
W10
G15
W11
G16
W9
G12
W6
W4
W5
W4
S3
W5
SW3
G7
S4
S5
S5
G8
S6
S8
G11
S9
G13
S10
G15
S7
G11
SW5
G9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI8 mi32 minSSW 15 G 2410.00 miLight Rain62°F54°F78%1002.4 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI20 mi34 minSSW 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast65°F55°F70%1000.7 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi31 minSW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast68°F56°F68%1000.3 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrE9E12
G15
E11
G17
E14
G19
SE11SE12
G15
SE13
G18
SE12SE19
G24
SE14SE11SE15S12
G19
S10S10
G15
S11
G15
S9S9S10S9S10
G14
S9
G15
S12S15
G19
1 day agoSE5CalmSE4SW5CalmN5N6NE6NE4NE7NE4NE5NE4NE5CalmE7NE6E5E5NE4E7E8E9E9
2 days agoNW12
G19
NW10
G16
W12W15
G18
W10
G18
W13W10W6W5W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5E4E7SE6SE8SE7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.