Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Argentine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:21PM Monday June 26, 2017 6:17 PM EDT (22:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 10:29PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-170623t0115z/ 844 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 915 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... At 844 pm edt...a strong Thunderstorm was located near the ambassador bridge...moving northeast at 30 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Grosse pointe around 855 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 910 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...st clair flats old channel light and mt clemens harbor of refuge around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4255 8259 4256 8263 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4232 8312 4238 8295 4245 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8263 4261 8254 4262 8260 4261 8258 4260 8255 4261 8253 time...mot...loc 0044z 241deg 29kt 4238 8306 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201706230115;;663543 FZUS73 KDTX 230044 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 844 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 LCZ423-460-230115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI
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location: 42.73, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261918
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
318 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Discussion
Another afternoon with scattered showers around.

Upper level low cold pool (-25 c at 500 mb) sliding through
southeast michigan this evening. Best jet forcing south of the
southern michigan border, but still 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 knots
approaching the southern michigan border, along with steep mid level
lapse rates. Fortunately, instability expected to be limited.

Surface dew pts started out in the lower 50s early this morning, but
have mixed down into the 40s, limiting sbcapes to 500 j kg or less.

Thus, updrafts likely not strong enough to handle the stronger wind
shear and dry air in the mid levels. However, isolated thunderstorms
remain possible, especially across lake st clair and western lake
erie, as warmer waters provide a moisture boost, and MAX negative
showalter values seen tracking through that area early this evening.

The main mid level circulation cold pool will be tracking off into
the eastern great lake overnight, but there is one more weaker
shortwave trough 700 mb thermal trough tracking through during
Tuesday, which should touch of isolated showers, as strong upper
level jet (110+ knots at 250 mb) slides through lake michigan with
modest moisture pooling over southeast michigan as seen in 850-700
mb theta-e fields. With surface based li's just near zero with capes
less than 250 j kg, will forego mention of a thunderstorm.

Strong low level southwest flow developing during Wednesday, with
dry warm front lifting into northern lower michigan. 850 mb temps
climbing to 12 c should support highs reaching around 80 degrees.

Excellent surge of moisture to occur Wednesday evening night, with
pw values approaching 1.75 inches by Thursday morning. Showalter
index in the -2 to - 4 c range, with mid level lapse rates around 7
c km should be plenty of thunderstorms, and with 50+ knots at 850
mb, severe storms could be a concern, but good chance the stable low
levels surfaced based inversion likely will hold, and maybe hail
would be a slight bigger threat, but right now 850 mb computed cape
looks to be below 1000 j kg, per 12z euro.

Extended forecast Thursday, june 29th through Tuesday,july 4th:
current models show active wet weather pattern resuming mid-week and
continuing through most of the holiday weekend, as several waves of
back-to-back low pressure gear up to move through southeast
michigan. Chances of showers thunderstorms look to increase
significantly for Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure tries to build over the region Saturday
afternoon and Sunday; however, upper level troughing could allow at
least some scattered showers to develop. Keeping at least weak pops
in the forecast into Monday. At present, the fourth looks to be dry.

Temperatures are expected to remain near the seasonal norm through
the period with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows
in the 60s.

Marine
Wind will diminish through this evening becoming light to moderate
through Wednesday. Moderate southerly wind will transition to fresh
southeasterly Wednesday night into Thursday in advance of the next
low pressure system, the stable southerly fetch limiting gustiness.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1244 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
aviation...

vfr through the period with widely scattered very light showers this
afternoon. Convergent corridor noted on visible imagery is expected
to lift through the ptk fnt areas early in the forecast period while
larger scale forcing remains more prominent toward mbs, thus the
longer lasting tempo group. Isolated shower not out of the question
in the detroit area but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast attm. MVFR stratus over the up and NE wi is mixing out with
diurnal heating. Expecting some redevelopment overnight, which is
hinted at by the guidance but not necessarily fully captured. Moved
forward with a few hours of high MVFR at all locations. Clear skies
and a modest northwest flow by Tuesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs AOB 5kft tonight

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Discussion... Sf de
marine... ... .Jvc
aviation... ..Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 58 mi78 min WSW 13 G 19 70°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 75 mi48 min NW 12 G 15 70°F 1015.4 hPa41°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI8 mi24 minW 13 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F35°F31%1015.2 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI20 mi25 minW 1410.00 miFair68°F42°F39%1014.4 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi23 minW 12 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F41°F41%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW16
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W6W4SW4SW4SW4CalmSW3SW3SW3W5SW6W8W11
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2 days agoNW8W9W9W5W7W4W6W5W5W4W5W5W7W5W6W7W9SW8W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.