Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 2:50 AM   Moonset 1:04 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 030137 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 937 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms tonight through Friday morning and again Friday afternoon as a cold front tracks across SE Michigan.

- Severe weather is not expected on Friday, although thunderstorms will be capable of downpours, lightning, and isolated wind gusts to 40 mph. Storm motion will be southwest to northeast at 40 mph.

- High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

UPDATE

Convective trends are the subject of the update this evening as activity to the south and west shows some staying power after sunset. The surface warm front is still south of the Michigan border and was the focus for strong thunderstorms during peak afternoon instability. Intensity has since diminished while coverage shows signs of near surface to slightly elevated redevelopment responding to quick veering of flow to SW by the 850 mb level. Upstream radar derived VWP's support model depictions of relatively weak 20-25 kt flow that has proven adequate to improve the moisture and lapse rate profile at least up to the I-75 corridor judging by the 00Z DTX sounding. There is still some uncertainty on intensity and longevity with northward extent until later tonight when current trends add some confidence to expectations for the survival of upstream IL to mid MS valley activity into Lower Mi as nocturnal moisture transport and elevated instability peak toward sunrise. The evening update will make an incremental increase in POPs from south to north this evening becoming borderline numerous across SE Mi late tonight and Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 703 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

AVIATION...

Broken coverage of VFR mid level clouds across much of Lower Mi are part of a well defined warm frontal system with a surface position across northern IL/IN/OH this evening. The surface front is providing moisture and a focus for a cluster of thunderstorms strongly dependent on afternoon instability which is expected to fade with sunset. The evening activity will be monitored for northward extent while a renewed chance for elevated showers and embedded storms improves across the SE Mi terminal corridor later tonight. The surface warm front moves slowly into southern Lower Mi late tonight and Friday morning with little to no ceiling restriction and visibility restriction limited to a few heavier showers or isolated storms. Greater coverage of MVFR ceiling arrives with the trailing cold front set to move through SE Mi Friday afternoon. The front also provides a focus for a more organized pattern of showers with a chance of thunderstorms until exiting eastward by Friday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms in progress in northern IN and western OH are expected to fade with the loss of daytime instability. This trend will be monitored for any stray remnant that could approach DTW mid to late evening. Otherwise, showers increase coverage over a greater portion of southern Lower Mi after midnight through Friday morning with an isolated/elevated storm possible. A renewed time window for thunderstorms then occurs Friday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Scattered coverage occurs among numerous showers along the front, although strong to severe storms are not expected.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms tonight and Friday.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

DISCUSSION...

Another seasonably warm day has ensued across SE MI today, with temperatures for most inland locations peaking in the low 70s.
Elevated portions of the inbound warm front already starting to bring a band of convectively enhanced cloud cover into western lower MI at issuance, with expanding cloud cover expected through the evening. Very dry low levels, denoted by T/Td spreads of 20+ degrees, confirm that present radar echoes are just virga so will hold on to a dry forecast through the evening.

In typical warm advection fashion, precipitation chances increase with the arrival of the low level moisture axis late tonight.
Leading wave of low level moisture advection is tied to a convectively enhanced shortwave that lifts into lower MI after 06z (2am local) tonight, but initial attempts at low level saturation will struggle to overcome the dry resident airmass (12z DTX RAOB observed PWAT of 0.62" this morning). Can already see this struggle ongoing over northern IN/OH (per GOES-16 visible imagery) where a sharp gradient in the cumulus field is observed. Nonetheless, broad isentropic ascent and weak instability aloft (HRRR ensemble mean MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg) should assist the saturation process to allow increasing coverage of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms Friday morning. Best coverage will likely be across the Tri Cities, as the SW-NE orientation of an incoming cold front pushes a narrow corridor of moisture into SW lower Michigan and the northwest portions of the cwa during the morning hours. The cold front will then drift eastward throughout the day, becoming a renewed albeit weakening forcing mechanism for surface-based convection to develop Friday afternoon. Even in the absence of showers/storms, the deep column moisture will support a cloudy day across lower MI.

Did reduce forecast high temperatures on Friday by several degrees, owing to the increased potential for cloud cover and shower activity to interfere with diurnal heating. Still, 850mb temperatures around 10-12 C are indicative of a seasonably warm airmass which will still support daytime highs Friday in the low 70s. These cooler boundary layer conditions, combined with mid level lapse rates below 6 C/km will keep MLCAPE prospects around 500 J/kg. With the front extending well ahead of the more dynamic parent system (over MN/WI), there will be a notable absence of upper jet forcing and mid/upper level flow. So while thunderstorms may develop along the fropa Friday afternoon, environmental conditions will not be favorable for storm organization/longevity, so severe weather is not expected.

The front will have little impact on thermal profiles heading into the weekend, as the boundary will be stretched and eventually wash out as its parent system stalls again, this time over Hudson Bay.
This results in an extended period of above normal temperatures, with highs comfortably in the 70s and lows in the 50s through early next week. Mid-level ridging pattern generally holds steady through early week, with dry weather expected Saturday ahead of another cold front Sunday morning. Strongest signal for a pattern shift holds off until middle of next week when a strong Pacific low tracks across CONUS, bringing the next meaningful window for precipitation.

MARINE...

High pressure over Lake Huron is resulting in light and variable flow this afternoon, but an approaching warm front to the southwest will help flow to become more easterly, but remain below 20 knots, for tonight. A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes on Friday pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday morning across the area on the warm front with continued activity later in the day along the cold front. Shower chances carry through Friday night. High pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday with another cold front coming on Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,