Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday November 23, 2017 8:56 AM CST (14:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Am Cst Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Friday night...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then veering northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201711231700;;841315 FZUS53 KMKX 231305 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 705 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-231700-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 231311 cca
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
528 am cst Thu nov 23 2017

Update The forecast is on track for today as the clouds
continue to decrease from west to east across SRN wi.

Aviation(12z tafs) Vfr conditions today and tonight.

Mid level clouds will gradually clear from west to east across
srn wi this morning. Otherwise, sct high clouds will occur at
times. Llws will be possible for Fri morning.

Prev discussion (issued 326 am cst Thu nov 23 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

The flurries have mostly ended across SRN wi, with clearing
moving into WRN wi. The clearing will be gradual though, as
clouds will redevelop at times via warm advection. Otherwise,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail today, with
light swly winds and weak warm advection continuing. 925 mb temps
suggest high temps in the lower to middle 40s today. For tnt, swly
flow and warm advection will increase, as strong low pressure
moves east across SRN wi. Thus, temps will gradually warm from
late evening into Fri morning.

Friday through Saturday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models continue to show robust warm air advection into Friday, on
gusty south to southwest winds. This should bring mild
temperatures into the area. Went with highs into the middle 50s in
most of the area, with upper 50s in the far west. May be a few
degrees too cold, especially if clouds hold off until later in the
day.

The limiting factor will be lack of a deep mixing layer, though
the inversion will be lifting during the afternoon. Will have to
watch the gusts Friday afternoon, as they may get well over 30
knots, especially if the inversion can rise more.

Models bring the cold front eastward through the area later Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening. There is decent low level
frontogenesis during this period. A 500 mb shortwave trough with
good differential cyclonic vorticity advection also slides east
through the area Friday evening. Forecast soundings are having a
tough time saturating through a deep layer later Friday into
Friday evening. Best chances for any rain will be in the far north
and northeast portions of the area. Continued low end pops for
these areas.

Cold air advection later Friday night into early Saturday brings
cooler air back into the area. High pressure is expected to pass
from the central plains into the middle mississippi river valley
Saturday into Saturday night. The influence of this high should
bring quiet weather to the area. More seasonable temperatures are
expected for Saturday into Saturday night.

Long term...

Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are in decent agreement with bringing another round of
robust warm air advection to the region Sunday into Monday. This
should bring the warmer temperatures back into the area,
especially for Monday. Highs should reach into the lower to middle
50s at least, and perhaps warmer with the good low level mixing.

The broad but rather flat 500 mb ridge axis gradually shifts east
of the region later Monday. The models then begin to differ with
timing and placement of features with the next system moving
through the region Monday night into Tuesday night. The GFS is
quickest with the cold frontal passage Monday night, with the
canadian and ECMWF holding of until Tuesday.

This system seems to have a lack of moisture with the cold front,
as there is little to no QPF with it. There are differences with
the 500 mb shortwave trough timing and placement Tuesday into
Tuesday night. For now, will lean on consensus model blended pops
and temperatures during this period.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

vfr conditions today and tonight. Mid level clouds will gradually
clear from west to east across SRN wi this morning. Otherwise,
sct high clouds will occur at times.

Marine...

a small craft advisory has been issued for 3 am Friday until 6 am
sat. Breezy swly winds on Friday will become wnwly Friday night,
after the passage of a cold front. Wind gusts to 30 knots are
expected.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 3 am Friday to 6 am cst Saturday for
lmz643>646.

Update... Gehring
today tonight and aviation marine... Gehring
Friday through Wednesday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi57 min SW 8.9 G 14 34°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.6)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi37 min SW 9.9 G 14 35°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi77 min SSW 9.9 G 12 34°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi67 min WSW 18 G 19 39°F 47°F4 ft1017 hPa (-0.9)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi77 min SW 4.1 G 6 36°F 1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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W6
G10
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G11
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G6
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G7
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1 day
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S12
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G25
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G15
SW10
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi64 minSW 710.00 miFair33°F19°F58%1017.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi64 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F19°F58%1017 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi65 minSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds34°F21°F59%1016.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi62 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds32°F21°F64%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW64SW6SW7W8W8SW11SW5SW3SW4S6S8SW7SW8SW7SW5SW6SW7SW9SW7SW8S6SW6SW7
1 day agoW12
G21
W11
G19
NW15
G24
NW15
G26
NW16
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N15
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N12
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NW8NW8NW6NW7NW8NW9NW8NW7NW5NW5W5W5W5W6W6
2 days agoSW13
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SW11W9
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.