Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:10PM Friday March 24, 2017 4:57 PM CDT (21:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 3:28PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 340 Pm Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Patchy fog. Rain showers likely late in the evening, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Patchy fog through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..East wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog. Rain. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201703250415;;022144 FZUS53 KMKX 242040 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-250415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 241852 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
152 pm cdt Fri mar 24 2017

Update
The cold front is working its way south this afternoon. Winds are
shifting from south to northeast. High temps reached 60 at msn and
65 and mke before the front went through. It hit 71 at our office
but temps are sliding down now.

Aviation(18z tafs)
Ifr ceilings will settle into southern wi by this evening in the
wake of a cold front that is sagging south this afternoon. Any winds
there are south will shift to the northeast by late afternoon.

Expect easterly winds to be fairly breezy overnight through Saturday
as low pressure tracks across central illinois. Look for periods of
rain and fog to bring visibility down to 1 mile at times.

Prev discussion (issued 1010 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017)
update...

upper 40s for highs in the northern forecast area (marquette to
sheboygan) are on track- that is the current temp and it's safe
to say the warm front will stay to the south of that area.

Southerly winds are increasing across far southern wi now as the
warm front heads north, so highs around 70 seem on track there.

The MAX temps along the i-94 corridor are the least certain for
today. An easterly component to the winds near lake michigan north
of racine will keep temps near the lake a little cooler.

Marine...

small craft advisory still looks good for the start time late this
afternoon north of port washington and this evening for points
south. This is due to increasing northeast winds and building
waves as low pressure tracks to the south of wisconsin through
Saturday.

Prev discussion... (issued 544 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017)
update...

look at winds across the area, the surface front likely runs from
near lone rock to juneau to port washington. It should hover in
this general location through about mid afternoon, then start to
sag south with increasing northeast winds to the north of the
front. Temps will warm quickly after about 9 am this morning.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

the focus for precipitation will likely remain well north of
milwaukee and madison through late afternoon, possibly into the
evening hours, based on some of the new guidance rolling in. A
frontal boundary is stalled along a line stretching from near lone
rock to juneau to port washington. Very warm temps and southerly
winds are expect south of the front, much cooler northeast winds
can be expected to the north. The front will sag south this
afternoon, pushing south of the state line by 6 pm this evening.

Cigs will gradually lower to MVFR then ifr late this afternoon
into the evening as the cold air mass overspreads the region and
more widespread precipitation moves in. Kmsn/kmke should be MVFR
by 22-23z this afternoon.

Prev discussion... (issued 255 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017)
today... Forecast confidence is medium.

Clearly the biggest challenge for today will be on temps. A
classic, very sharp springtime temp contrast will exist across
southern wisconsin as a frontal boundary stalls right along a
milwaukee to madison to spring green line at mid day. To the north,
temps in the upper 40s. To the south, lower 70s. Nailing that
front's exact location is tough, but has big consequences depending
on what side of that front you are on. Convection currently rolling
by to the north will likely help lay out a cooler, reinforcing
outflow boundary. Ridging sliding by to the north of the great
lakes today will help to increase the cold northeast winds over all
but southern wisconsin. The battle will be between the southerly
winds ahead of approaching low pressure and those northeast winds
strengthening across wisconsin. Throw in an earlier northeast wind
along lake michigan and you have that micro climate complexity. The
previous temp forecast is mostly intact, but it is highly dependent
on just where the front finally sets up for early afternoon. Most
rain chances today will be limited to well north of milwaukee and
madison. Precip across wisconsin for much of today will be up closer
to the h8 frontal boundary located across northern wisconsin. That
front will begin to sag south, increasing the chances of rain over
southern wisconsin as we approach evening.

Tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

The cold northeast winds will eventually push that frontal boundary,
and those warmer temps south of the border by early evening. The
big, closed and stacked low pressure system will continue to
approach wisconsin tonight, reaching missouri by Saturday morning.

The h8 boundary sags into southern wisconsin and will bring with it
the deeper frontogenetic forcing. Thus, we should see periods of
showers through the night, a thunderstorm is also possible, but they
will be rather isolated. Nothing severe expected. And, with a
reminder that it's still march, lows by morning will be in the 30s.

Saturday and Sunday - confidence... Medium
large 500 millibar low across the central plains will lift northeast
into lower michigan by Sunday. This will keep our CWA on the
northern periphery of the steadier rains. Models suggest that the
heavier rains arrive later Saturday morning through the afternoon.

With the low tracking across northern illinois a steady wind off the
lake and cloud cover will keep things quite chilly so trended below
superblend guidance on temps, especially closer to the cooler
influence of lake michigan. Due to the proximity of the low on
Sunday, the rain is likely to persist though some consensus that
amounts not as heavy as Saturday but still looks like a pretty high
pop scenario. With surface low getting close the winds could go
rather light for a time Sunday which may set up a fog scenario
especially closer to lake michigan with potential for a light and
very moist onshore flow. MOS guide from both the NAM and GFS showing
this possibility.

Monday - confidence... Medium
models are showing another mid level trough axis approaching with a
pocket of vorticity to our south and one to our north with some
suggested phasing trying to take place. The latest GFS shows a more
rain arriving with the southern energy passing to our south. The 12z
euro keeps the higher amounts to our south. Will bring in the
highest pops into our southern CWA during the afternoon and evening
as this mid level wave and surface reflection pass through.

Tuesday and Wednesday - confidence... Medium
mid level flow trends more anticyclonic in the wake of the trough.

Surface ridging also is proggd to suppress precip this period. The
surface high shifts to the east on Wednesday but it appears that a
lingering dry influence will keep any advancing precip at bay with
next system drawing a bit closer.

Wednesday night and Thursday - confidence... Medium
large upper low in the southern plains is proggd to start lifting
out towards the mid miss vly this period. The ECMWF are on the same
page with this idea but the gem keeps it well south our area being
dominated by more in the way of mid level ridging in the northern
stream. Will follow the superblend guidance which latches more onto
the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solution with increasing pops
into Thursday. The latest ECMWF is much more aggressive on rain
expanding into the area with more QPF than the gfs. This will all
hinge on the speed of ejection of the system and how much the
lingering dry southeast feed will erode any advancing precip. So the
slower and less aggressive GFS may be the best compromise approach
to this scenario for now.

Aviation(06z tafs)... There will be a general lull in the precipitation
overnight into most of Friday. Ceilings should rise well intoVFR
category, with visibilities above 6 miles during this period. Could
even see some clearing in the far southern counties at times as
well.

Gusty south to southeast winds should gradually weaken and become
southwest into Friday morning. Northeast winds should then develop
and become gusty Friday night into Saturday night, as low pressure
passes by to the south.

Rain showers will gradually move into the area late Friday afternoon
and over all of the area Friday night, lingering at times into the
weekend. Look for low ceilings and reducing visibilities Friday night
with the rain showers. Some fog may develop at times over the weekend.

Marine... Northeast winds will increase from north to south across lake
michigan today into tonight. A small craft advisory will be needed
around sheboygan by late afternoon and the rest of the nearshore
waters down to the wi/il state line by this evening. Waves will
gradually build and remain elevated through Saturday night.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 3 am cdt Sunday
for lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory until 3 am cdt Sunday for lmz643.

Update... Cronce
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Davis
Saturday through Thursday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi57 min N 18 G 19 40°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi37 min N 17 G 19 38°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi77 min NNE 18 G 21
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi77 min NNE 13 G 20 42°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE13
G16
SE11
G18
SE12
G17
SE9
G15
SE9
G13
S9
G14
S7
G11
S5
G8
S4
G7
SE5
S4
S4
G7
S7
G10
S10
G13
S15
G20
S12
G19
S12
G18
S8
G18
S18
G24
S21
G27
SW18
G30
SW10
G23
SW14
G25
SW12
G23
1 day
ago
NE7
G10
N8
NE7
NE7
NE7
G10
NE6
E7
G11
E8
SE8
G11
SE4
G9
SE8
G12
SE12
G16
SE6
SE9
G13
SE7
G14
SE10
G15
SE11
G15
SE7
G10
S10
G16
SE11
G15
SE11
G16
SE11
G17
SE14
G17
S13
G21
2 days
ago
N12
G16
N11
G14
N8
G11
N9
N15
G19
N17
G24
N21
G28
N22
G30
N20
G26
N19
G27
N16
G25
N17
G25
N17
G24
NE16
G22
NE17
G24
NE15
G21
NE14
G18
NE11
G18
NE13
G17
NE11
G14
NE10
G14
NE10
G14
NE9
G12
NE8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi64 minN 1310.00 miFair42°F36°F79%1014.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi64 minNE 117.00 miFair51°F41°F69%1013.4 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi65 minN 16 G 227.00 miOvercast42°F35°F76%1015.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi62 minNNE 106.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze49°F42°F77%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11
G20
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5SE11S13
G21
S16S12
G20
S9SW12
G19
SW11SW11SW11SW9N5CalmE5SW9SW13
G17
E11NE11N15N13
1 day agoE9E5NE7NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE8S6S10S8S9
G18
S10S14
G19
SE14
G21
S17
G24
S18
G24
SE18
G25
S18
G26
S16
G23
SE11
G23
2 days agoNE13NE11NE13NE13NE15
G23
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G24
NE15
G22
N18
G24
N19
G23
N14
G20
N15NE16
G23
N14NE11N9NE13
G17
NE12
G19
NE10NE10NE7NE8NE9E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.