Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 11:55 PM CDT (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Rest of tonight..North wind 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201708241000;;303821 FZUS53 KMKX 240406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1106 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-241000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240441
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1141 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017

Update
Aviation(06z tafs) Mid to high clouds will increase during the
early morning hours on Thu and decrease by late morning and early
afternoon. Patchy ground fog will form early Thu am before the mid
level clouds arrive, but dissipate once the cloud cover thickens.

Broken cumulus of 3-4 kft will occur over the lake counties via
lake effect for a period Thu am. There will be a clearing trend
from NE to SW through the afternoon as dry air moves into the
region. Patchy ground fog may occur late Thu night.

Prev discussion (issued 943 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017)
update...

marine... A cold front will accelerate down lake mi late tonight
and Thu am with winds becoming nely and gusting to 20 kts from
around 3-4 am near sheboygan to milwaukee around 7-8 am and
kenosha around 10-11 am. Scattered lake effect showers will
develop along the front with a small potential for waterspouts
given the warm waters and cold air aloft. Waves up to 3 feet on
thu. Otherwise light winds and low wave heights for Fri and the
weekend.

Prev discussion... (issued 728 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017)
update... A strong shortwave trough currently moving into NW mn
will track to east central wi by 12z. Forecast soundings indicate
steep lapse rates and saturation from the mid levels upward
so introduced low pops over the NRN cwa. At the sfc, a surge of
nnely winds will move down lake mi, possibly causing lake effect
showers given lake to 850 mb temp difference of 15-16c so
introduced low pops over the lake counties. The timing will be
from the early morning hours over the nrn CWA while the potential
for lake effect showers could linger into the early afternoon over
kenosha and racine.

Aviation(00z tafs)... Mid to high clouds will increase during the
early morning hours on Thu and decrease by late morning and early
afternoon. Although, broken cumulus of 3-4 kft will occur over
the lake counties via lake effect for a period Thu am. There will
be a clearing trend from NE to SW through the afternoon as dry air
moves into the region.

Prev discussion... (issued 323 pm cdt Wed aug 23 2017)
short term...

tonight and Thursday - confidence... Medium
overall dry and cool surface high will dominate this period. A
reinforcing cool front arrives later tonight into Thursday
morning. A potent mid level shortwave combined with this front
will try to fight the substantially dry column to kick off a few
showers. Bufkit soundings do show various depths to the mid level
moistening so have some small chances mainly in the western cwa.

Cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough in place for much of
Thursday so after any lingering mid clouds move off should see
some more in the way of CU formation.

Long term...

Thursday night through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
high pressure will hold in place over the great lakes late week
into the weekend. Moisture will be increasing from the west on the
back side of the high during this time. This could allow for a few
showers at times as weak waves rotate through the northwest flow.

It will be a battle between the higher moisture west and the much
drier conditions toward the center of the high in the east.

Confined highest pops mainly to the west as a result, with
eastern areas possibly staying dry through this time period.

Below normal temps are expected during this forecast period.

Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
models are developing a closed upper low in the area late weekend
into early next week. As is typical with these systems, models are
struggling a bit with the movement strength of the upper low as
well as the resultant surface development. It does look like
showers and maybe a few storms are possible as this low moves
through the region, with Sunday and Monday having the higher
chances given the overlap among models. It should turn dry by
mid-week, though the ECMWF is slower to push the system out and
hangs on to shower chances through Wednesday.

Some uncertainty with exact temps given the different
possibilities with the low pressure system next week. Overall
though, temps should be near to a few degrees below normal.

Aviation(21z tafs)...VFR cumulus field should dissipate within
the cooling dry airmass this evening. Small chance of shra very
late tonight into Thursday morning with approaching vigorous
shortwave and southward sliding cold front.

Marine... Arrival of potent mid level shortwave combined with
lower level CAA may still lead to an isolated waterspout or two
overnight into Thursday morning. Passing cold front late tonight
into Thursday morning will shift winds onshore though winds and
resultant waves are expected to remain below small craft criteria.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring
tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Collar
Thursday night through Wednesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi56 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1016.9 hPa (+1.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi36 min WSW 5.1 G 6 66°F
45013 27 mi77 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 69°F1017.1 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 27 mi76 min SW 5.1 G 6 65°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi66 min S 1.9 G 3.9 67°F 71°F2 ft1017 hPa (+0.8)
45174 41 mi26 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 73°F1 ft58°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi76 min W 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1017.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair57°F55°F93%1016.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi64 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds64°F55°F75%1016.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi61 minSW 310.00 miFair58°F55°F93%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W5W5W6W6W6W5W6NW7NW7NW10NW12N11NW115E7SE6E6SE5SE6S4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW8SW6SW7SW8W7
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW6W7W8W8W7W4SE7S8S8S9S10S7SW9SW8SW8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.