Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 4:17 AM   Moonset 5:13 PM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Through early evening - North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming northeast early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Monday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Tuesday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 051944 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 244 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- On again/off again showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday. Monitoring the potential for scattered strong storms mid afternoon to early evening Tuesday.



SHORT TERM
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tonight and Monday:

High pressure will move into Michigan tonight so light winds are expected. A shortwave moving across southern Wisconsin may bring some mid level clouds overnight. Seeing less potential for valley fog tonight.

Light southeast winds will prevail on Monday as the high moves over Lake Huron. Mid level ridging will set up in the wake of the shortwave and skies will be mostly clear. A few cumulus may develop in the afternoon with highs around 70. Lake shore areas will be a little cooler with winds off the lake.

Marquardt

LONG TERM
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

An unsettled weather pattern sets up across the region Tuesday and persists in an on again/off again fashion into next weekend.

Tuesday features an occluding low over the Dakotas with an associated occluded front sliding into the region from the southwest. The entire suite of ensembles indicate an expansive band of rain and embedded thunder along/ahead of this boundary, entering southwestern WI by daybreak and spreading over the remainder of southern WI through midday Tuesday.

With rainfall progressively running out ahead of the primary forcing, this band of rainfall looks to be weakening, if not trying to fall apart to some extent. Trends from the GEFS/EPS/GEPS indicate a general quarter inch of rainfall (give or take), with localized higher totals beneath embedded thunder and localized lower amounts where lift decreases quicker. All ensemble systems are rightfully shifting higher confidence of greater than one half inch of rain back into MN and closer to the main areas of forcing.

The question for Tuesday afternoon becomes, can enough heating be mustered to reignite scattered storms during the mid afternoon into early evening hours. The GEFS and NAM support redevelopment while the EPS and GEPS, overall, do not. This is a mesoscale forecast problem that will need to be monitored. If storms do not refire late Tuesday afternoon, there will be a break in rain until later Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a piece of energy from the stacked low over the Dakotas will break off and slide to the east southeast. This initiates weak cyclogenesis in eastern Iowa, that subsequently slides across northern IL/IN/OH by early Thursday. This puts our area on the cooler more stable side of the system, though will ample opportunity for additional showers. Onset timing is late afternoon/early evening Wednesday, persisting in an on again/off again fashion through Thursday. This looks to set up quiet day on Friday.

Next weekend, model spread increases substantially. There is some consensus on a wave moving through northwest flow on Saturday bringing another round of showers and cooler temperatures.
Solutions diverge as the GEFS/GEPS develop a slower, more closed solution, while the EPS keeps a faster moving open wave.

Temperature-wise, expect above average readings Tuesday and Wednesday, with at or below average readings from Thursday into next weekend.

Gagan

Marquardt

AVIATION
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. East winds will be 10 knots or less. Some mid level clouds will move through overnight.
There will be a few clouds with bases around 4000 ft during the day on Monday.

Marquardt

MARINE
Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure of will move into Michigan tonight. Light winds will become easterly tonight. In the nearshore, east to southeast winds will increase to around 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday with waves 3 to 5 feet. The trend in winds has been downward so will hold off on a small craft advisory at this time.

Showers and storms are expected on Tuesday along a front. It will stall across the lake bringing variable winds on Wednesday. East to northeast winds will increase Wednesday night. Small craft conditions may be reached on Thursday.

Marquardt

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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