Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Bay, WI
May 16, 2024 11:27 PM CDT (04:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:25 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:25 PM Moonset 2:32 AM |
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots after midnight. Patchy fog. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 170310 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1010 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Areas of fog are possible overnight, especially east of Madison. Some areas could become dense near the Lake Michigan shoreline.
- Marine dense fog may develop overnight on Lake Michigan, and could linger multiple hours after sunrise Friday.
- Summer-like temperatures and mostly dry Fri-Sun.
- A wet and unsettled period for Mon-Tue.
UPDATE
Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
A few patches of cumulus clouds linger on Satellite, hence areas east of a Monroe to Madison to Fond Du Lac line may see an isolated shower redevelop later this evening (10% chance).
Otherwise, dry weather prevails overnight into Friday.
With shallow moisture from the recent rainfall and gaps in the clouds allowing for some radiational cooling, areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight, with the potential for some areas of dense fog east of Madison. The refrigerating effect of Lake Michigan should allow for thicker / more widespread fog production over the nearshore and open waters, which could drift a few miles inland if the light and variable winds permit.
Fog will begin to erode after sunrise Friday, then temperatures climb to a daytime high of nearly 80 degrees (for far inland areas) under mostly clear skies. With lake surface water temps hovering in the upper 40s, and a nearly calm synoptic wind field, conditions are favorable for a potent Lake Breeze circulation Friday afternoon. Hence, lakeshore counties receive daytime highs in the mid to low 70s, with the shoreline itself remaining in the 60s.
Sheppard
SHORT TERM
Issued 312 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Tonight through Friday night:
The rest of this afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity should percolate into the evening as SBCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg remains over the area. Currently, storms have exhibited transient mini-supercellular characteristics, owing to the marginal effective bulk shear around 30 knots, skinny CAPE, and weak 0-3km SRH ~100 m2/s2. This has promoted some brief gusty winds to 40mph and penny to nickel size hail out of some of the stronger storms. Low topped, widely scattered storms should continue into the early evening before SBCAPE dissipates and activity wanes.
A humid air mass will remain over the area tonight, especially east of Madison, promoting areas of fog. Areas along Lake Michigan have the best potential to see some dense fog, as the humid air over the cold waters of Lake Michigan, coupled with weak winds, will promote efficient fog production.
Tomorrow, relative high pressure and ridging aloft should take root, promoting mostly clear skies, save for some daytime cumulus clouds. Sunshine will allow the fog to mix out shortly after sunrise. Winds will be light and it'll grow toasty out, with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan, and highs in the mid 70s along the lakeshore.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 311 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Saturday through Thursday:
Dry weather is likely to persist through the weekend owing to persistent high pressure. Previous rain chances along a cold front Saturday evening look to have lessened, owing to weaker frontal forcing and more unfavorable timing with respect to the arrival of the front. Temperatures should also remain warm with summer like highs in the 80s as height rises and ridging aloft occur through the weekend.
No particularly major changes to the pattern beyond Sunday. The pattern looks active, as models depict deeper moisture reaching further north into the Upper Midwest amid continuing warmth and a low amplitude western US trough. This should give us multiple chances at showers and storms into the middle of next week.
Tuesday in particular looks like a day of focus for severe weather in our area as CSU-MLP Probabilities and CIPS Analogs depict 15-30% chances for severe weather hazards through Wisconsin.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Dry weather is expected overnight into Friday, with only a 15% chance of isolated rain shower redevelopment over the next hour or two. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds may linger overnight (around 4000 to 7000 ft) for areas east of Madison. Patchy fog is likely to develop in the late overnight hours into early Friday AM, especially east of Madison. Patches of dense fog are possible, and TAFs currently include visby as low as 3/4 SM for airports this applies to. For airports near Lake Michigan, note that the fog may be thicker and more widespread over the water, and may be able to drift several miles inland if the light and variable winds permit.
Fog should lift gradually after sunrise Friday. A lake breeze is likely Friday afternoon, with lakeshore airports expected to observe a wind shift from light and variable to southeast at roughly noon local time.
Sheppard
MARINE
Issued 301 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Low pressure will lift north of Lake Superior and dissipate through Friday. It will drag an occluded front over the lake this evening, bringing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Modestly breezy southerly winds this afternoon will ease and become southwesterly overnight and then light and variable by dawn on Friday. Areas of marine dense fog may develop overnight, then linger into the post dawn hours on Friday before dissipating.
Light and variable winds will then persist through Friday as a broad area of high pressure settles over the lake. Light southerly winds will then return Saturday.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1010 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Areas of fog are possible overnight, especially east of Madison. Some areas could become dense near the Lake Michigan shoreline.
- Marine dense fog may develop overnight on Lake Michigan, and could linger multiple hours after sunrise Friday.
- Summer-like temperatures and mostly dry Fri-Sun.
- A wet and unsettled period for Mon-Tue.
UPDATE
Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
A few patches of cumulus clouds linger on Satellite, hence areas east of a Monroe to Madison to Fond Du Lac line may see an isolated shower redevelop later this evening (10% chance).
Otherwise, dry weather prevails overnight into Friday.
With shallow moisture from the recent rainfall and gaps in the clouds allowing for some radiational cooling, areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight, with the potential for some areas of dense fog east of Madison. The refrigerating effect of Lake Michigan should allow for thicker / more widespread fog production over the nearshore and open waters, which could drift a few miles inland if the light and variable winds permit.
Fog will begin to erode after sunrise Friday, then temperatures climb to a daytime high of nearly 80 degrees (for far inland areas) under mostly clear skies. With lake surface water temps hovering in the upper 40s, and a nearly calm synoptic wind field, conditions are favorable for a potent Lake Breeze circulation Friday afternoon. Hence, lakeshore counties receive daytime highs in the mid to low 70s, with the shoreline itself remaining in the 60s.
Sheppard
SHORT TERM
Issued 312 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Tonight through Friday night:
The rest of this afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity should percolate into the evening as SBCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg remains over the area. Currently, storms have exhibited transient mini-supercellular characteristics, owing to the marginal effective bulk shear around 30 knots, skinny CAPE, and weak 0-3km SRH ~100 m2/s2. This has promoted some brief gusty winds to 40mph and penny to nickel size hail out of some of the stronger storms. Low topped, widely scattered storms should continue into the early evening before SBCAPE dissipates and activity wanes.
A humid air mass will remain over the area tonight, especially east of Madison, promoting areas of fog. Areas along Lake Michigan have the best potential to see some dense fog, as the humid air over the cold waters of Lake Michigan, coupled with weak winds, will promote efficient fog production.
Tomorrow, relative high pressure and ridging aloft should take root, promoting mostly clear skies, save for some daytime cumulus clouds. Sunshine will allow the fog to mix out shortly after sunrise. Winds will be light and it'll grow toasty out, with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan, and highs in the mid 70s along the lakeshore.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 311 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Saturday through Thursday:
Dry weather is likely to persist through the weekend owing to persistent high pressure. Previous rain chances along a cold front Saturday evening look to have lessened, owing to weaker frontal forcing and more unfavorable timing with respect to the arrival of the front. Temperatures should also remain warm with summer like highs in the 80s as height rises and ridging aloft occur through the weekend.
No particularly major changes to the pattern beyond Sunday. The pattern looks active, as models depict deeper moisture reaching further north into the Upper Midwest amid continuing warmth and a low amplitude western US trough. This should give us multiple chances at showers and storms into the middle of next week.
Tuesday in particular looks like a day of focus for severe weather in our area as CSU-MLP Probabilities and CIPS Analogs depict 15-30% chances for severe weather hazards through Wisconsin.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Dry weather is expected overnight into Friday, with only a 15% chance of isolated rain shower redevelopment over the next hour or two. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds may linger overnight (around 4000 to 7000 ft) for areas east of Madison. Patchy fog is likely to develop in the late overnight hours into early Friday AM, especially east of Madison. Patches of dense fog are possible, and TAFs currently include visby as low as 3/4 SM for airports this applies to. For airports near Lake Michigan, note that the fog may be thicker and more widespread over the water, and may be able to drift several miles inland if the light and variable winds permit.
Fog should lift gradually after sunrise Friday. A lake breeze is likely Friday afternoon, with lakeshore airports expected to observe a wind shift from light and variable to southeast at roughly noon local time.
Sheppard
MARINE
Issued 301 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Low pressure will lift north of Lake Superior and dissipate through Friday. It will drag an occluded front over the lake this evening, bringing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Modestly breezy southerly winds this afternoon will ease and become southwesterly overnight and then light and variable by dawn on Friday. Areas of marine dense fog may develop overnight, then linger into the post dawn hours on Friday before dissipating.
Light and variable winds will then persist through Friday as a broad area of high pressure settles over the lake. Light southerly winds will then return Saturday.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45199 | 2 mi | 58 min | SSW 9.7 | 50°F | 47°F | 2 ft | 29.73 | |
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 13 mi | 28 min | SSW 6G | 67°F | 29.75 | |||
| 45187 | 18 mi | 38 min | 5.8G | 60°F | 53°F | 1 ft | ||
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 22 mi | 38 min | SW 4.1G | 65°F | ||||
| 45186 | 26 mi | 38 min | 5.8G | 57°F | 55°F | 1 ft | ||
| 45013 | 27 mi | 58 min | SSW 7.8G | 60°F | 50°F | 1 ft | 29.72 | |
| 45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI | 34 mi | 38 min | S 9.7G | 53°F | 2 ft | 29.77 | 52°F | |
| PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI | 47 mi | 48 min | NE 2.9G | 54°F | 29.75 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRAC BATTEN INTL,WI | 8 sm | 34 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.75 | |
| KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 17 sm | 34 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 61°F | 83% | 29.74 | |
| KMKE GENERAL MITCHELL INTL,WI | 20 sm | 35 min | SSE 04 | 8 sm | A Few Clouds | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 29.72 | |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 24 sm | 36 min | SW 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.74 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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