Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Watervliet, NY
May 21, 2024 9:38 AM EDT (13:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:24 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 6:41 PM Moonset 4:07 AM |
FXUS61 KALY 211031 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 631 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Today and tomorrow will both be hot with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A cold frontal passage Thursday will bring another round of showers and storms, especially for areas south and east of Albany. Behind the front, temperatures trend cooler, although we may have another round of showers to deal with over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update
As of 6:20 AM EDT...Mainly just minor adjustments with this update to reflect current trends...Temperatures range from low 50s in some of our high terrain areas to mid 50s in some of the valleys where winds stayed light all night. High clouds continue to stream overhead, with some patchy fog and some low stratus across western New England. An area of convection is currently tracking north of Lake Ontario, and some associated gravity waves were actually evident on the KBUF radar earlier this morning as the convection tracked to the north. We will likely see a few showers/storms develop across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley later this morning associated with the outflow from this convection. Some additional showers/storms also possible this afternoon as we mix through the capping inversion, mainly north of I-90. A few stronger wind gusts or marginally severe hail possible across the ADKs and/or upper Hudson Valley.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details below...
Previous
Our region is located beneath an upper ridge, with surface high pressure off to the east over the western Atlantic.
Flow aloft has become more zonal as the ridge folds over on itself, and this has allowed some thin, high cirrus associated with upstream convection to spill into our region. Some low stratus has also developed in southeastern Litchfield County, and this should continue slowly expanding north and west through around daybreak thanks to low-level southerly flow. Since the clouds have remained relatively thin, we have seen favorable radiative cooling conditions outside of the north to south oriented valleys, with some patchy fog development. Some additional patchy fog is possible through around 12z this morning as temperatures continue to cool through the next few hours. Overnight lows will range from low 50s in the high terrain to low 60s for the valleys.
Today will be the warmest day so far for most places, as we will remain under the influence of the upper ridge. Highs could approach 90F in the valleys, but it does not look like we will reach heat advisory criteria. Later this morning through this afternoon, convection from the Great Lakes associated with a convectively enhanced upper shortwave and attendant surface low will track to our north around the periphery of the upper ridge.
The upper impulse and any outflow boundaries from the convection to our north will likely provide enough forcing for ascent for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, mainly for areas along and north of I-90. Deep-layer shear is unimpressive at 25kt or less, so widespread severe weather is not expected.
That being said, SBCAPE values look to reach 1500-2000 J/kg with the warm airmass in place and mid-level lapse rates of around 6C/km. Steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air in place also suggest that a few storms could have some marginally severe hail and/or gusty winds. The best chance of any stronger storms is across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley. SPC has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather, which makes sense given the aforementioned setup.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tonight, any lingering showers or storms should dissipate within a few hours of sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and decreasing instability. Most of the night will be fairly dry with partly cloudy skies. Any areas that see rain during the day today could see patchy fog develop tonight with winds expected to be light once again. We may also see some low stratus again towards the I-84 corridor, similar to Monday night. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than the previous night, mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Wednesday, potent upper and surface low pressure system will be tracking into the western Great Lakes region well to our west.
Most of the day will be dry with partly to mostly clear skies as our region remains under the influence of upper ridging. THis will help temperatures rise well into the 80s to low 90s for many valley areas, so it should be even a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday. Heat indices could get into the low 90s, but should fall a few degrees short of heat advisory criteria.
Late Wednesday afternoon and evening, a pre-frontal trough will approach from the west, potentially leading to development of more showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Tuesday, CAPE values will be quite impressive and there will be steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air that are suggestive of an environment that could support some gusty winds and hail with any storms, but the lack of shear should keep the severe threat on the low side. SPC has placed our western Mohawk Valley and ADK areas in a marginal risk for severe weather again, Wednesday. Storms could make it as far east as the Hudson Valley Wednesday evening or early Wednesday night, but they will be weakening at this point with the loss of daytime heating. There could be a few lingering showers or a non-severe thunderstorm Wednesday night, but overall most places should dry out especially after midnight. Wednesday night will be quite mild, with lows in the 60s for most areas.
Thursday, they system's cold front will finally track through our region. The exact timing of the front in relation to peak daytime heating will determine how widespread showers and storms become. Currently, it looks like the cold front will pass through our western areas Thursday morning, which will limit the coverage and intensity of any thunderstorms. For areas south and east of Albany, the cold frontal passage will likely occur during the afternoon, so there should be more instability to work with. Shear will also be more impressive than the previous few days with 30 to 40 kt winds at 500 mb. Low-level forcing is not overly strong, but height falls aloft and the approaching right entrance region of the upper jet should provide additional lift. Therefore, areas south and east of Albany could see some stronger storms Thursday if the current forecast holds. SPC accordingly has placed portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather.
Thursday will be cooler for areas north and west of Albany with highs in the 70s to low 80s, but temperatures out ahead of the front will likely climb into the mid to upper 80s along the I-84 corridor.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end Thursday evening as the cold front crosses the region and stalls over the mid-Atlantic states. This will result in decreasing clouds Thursday night and mostly sunny and less humid weather on Friday with weak high pressure overhead. Highs on Friday will reach the mid-70s to mid- 80s.
The remainder of the forecast period will consist of a series of upper-level shortwaves crossing the region, which will result in additional chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. Run-to- run consistency of these shortwaves is poor resulting in lower confidence in timing. Latest trends suggest the better shower chances are on Saturday and either Monday or Tuesday of next week (pending the arrival of the next shortwave) with Sunday trending drier (in-between shortwaves). Will cap the extended with chance pops until confidence in timing of each shortwave increases. Highs on most days will be in the 70s with some mid to upper 60s at times across the higher elevations.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12z/Wed...Any lingering fog will lift early this morning with VFR conditions otherwise with developing fair weather cumulus at around 5 kft and some high cirrus. An upper level disturbance passing by to the north could develop some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours from KALB/KPSF north to KGFL. Have included VCSH for these sites. Any shower or storm that does occur could reduce vsbys into the IFR/MVFR range. Will monitor trends and amend as necessary. Any activity should stay north of KPOU.
Shower activity may linger into this evening near KGFL but end elsewhere with some patchy mid and high clouds around for tonight. Where rain does fall and enough clearing occurs, fog could develop overnight. For now, will only include MVFR vsbys at KGFL tonight where confidence is highest on possible showers today.
Wind will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt today. Wind will decrease to 5 kt or less tonight (except 5-10 kt at KALB).
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperature for May 21:
Albany: 92 in 1941 Glens Falls: 93 in 1921 Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996
Record High Temperature for May 22:
Albany: 97 in 1911 Glens Falls: 98 in 1911 Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 631 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Today and tomorrow will both be hot with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A cold frontal passage Thursday will bring another round of showers and storms, especially for areas south and east of Albany. Behind the front, temperatures trend cooler, although we may have another round of showers to deal with over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update
As of 6:20 AM EDT...Mainly just minor adjustments with this update to reflect current trends...Temperatures range from low 50s in some of our high terrain areas to mid 50s in some of the valleys where winds stayed light all night. High clouds continue to stream overhead, with some patchy fog and some low stratus across western New England. An area of convection is currently tracking north of Lake Ontario, and some associated gravity waves were actually evident on the KBUF radar earlier this morning as the convection tracked to the north. We will likely see a few showers/storms develop across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley later this morning associated with the outflow from this convection. Some additional showers/storms also possible this afternoon as we mix through the capping inversion, mainly north of I-90. A few stronger wind gusts or marginally severe hail possible across the ADKs and/or upper Hudson Valley.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details below...
Previous
Our region is located beneath an upper ridge, with surface high pressure off to the east over the western Atlantic.
Flow aloft has become more zonal as the ridge folds over on itself, and this has allowed some thin, high cirrus associated with upstream convection to spill into our region. Some low stratus has also developed in southeastern Litchfield County, and this should continue slowly expanding north and west through around daybreak thanks to low-level southerly flow. Since the clouds have remained relatively thin, we have seen favorable radiative cooling conditions outside of the north to south oriented valleys, with some patchy fog development. Some additional patchy fog is possible through around 12z this morning as temperatures continue to cool through the next few hours. Overnight lows will range from low 50s in the high terrain to low 60s for the valleys.
Today will be the warmest day so far for most places, as we will remain under the influence of the upper ridge. Highs could approach 90F in the valleys, but it does not look like we will reach heat advisory criteria. Later this morning through this afternoon, convection from the Great Lakes associated with a convectively enhanced upper shortwave and attendant surface low will track to our north around the periphery of the upper ridge.
The upper impulse and any outflow boundaries from the convection to our north will likely provide enough forcing for ascent for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, mainly for areas along and north of I-90. Deep-layer shear is unimpressive at 25kt or less, so widespread severe weather is not expected.
That being said, SBCAPE values look to reach 1500-2000 J/kg with the warm airmass in place and mid-level lapse rates of around 6C/km. Steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air in place also suggest that a few storms could have some marginally severe hail and/or gusty winds. The best chance of any stronger storms is across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley. SPC has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather, which makes sense given the aforementioned setup.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tonight, any lingering showers or storms should dissipate within a few hours of sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and decreasing instability. Most of the night will be fairly dry with partly cloudy skies. Any areas that see rain during the day today could see patchy fog develop tonight with winds expected to be light once again. We may also see some low stratus again towards the I-84 corridor, similar to Monday night. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than the previous night, mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Wednesday, potent upper and surface low pressure system will be tracking into the western Great Lakes region well to our west.
Most of the day will be dry with partly to mostly clear skies as our region remains under the influence of upper ridging. THis will help temperatures rise well into the 80s to low 90s for many valley areas, so it should be even a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday. Heat indices could get into the low 90s, but should fall a few degrees short of heat advisory criteria.
Late Wednesday afternoon and evening, a pre-frontal trough will approach from the west, potentially leading to development of more showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Tuesday, CAPE values will be quite impressive and there will be steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air that are suggestive of an environment that could support some gusty winds and hail with any storms, but the lack of shear should keep the severe threat on the low side. SPC has placed our western Mohawk Valley and ADK areas in a marginal risk for severe weather again, Wednesday. Storms could make it as far east as the Hudson Valley Wednesday evening or early Wednesday night, but they will be weakening at this point with the loss of daytime heating. There could be a few lingering showers or a non-severe thunderstorm Wednesday night, but overall most places should dry out especially after midnight. Wednesday night will be quite mild, with lows in the 60s for most areas.
Thursday, they system's cold front will finally track through our region. The exact timing of the front in relation to peak daytime heating will determine how widespread showers and storms become. Currently, it looks like the cold front will pass through our western areas Thursday morning, which will limit the coverage and intensity of any thunderstorms. For areas south and east of Albany, the cold frontal passage will likely occur during the afternoon, so there should be more instability to work with. Shear will also be more impressive than the previous few days with 30 to 40 kt winds at 500 mb. Low-level forcing is not overly strong, but height falls aloft and the approaching right entrance region of the upper jet should provide additional lift. Therefore, areas south and east of Albany could see some stronger storms Thursday if the current forecast holds. SPC accordingly has placed portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather.
Thursday will be cooler for areas north and west of Albany with highs in the 70s to low 80s, but temperatures out ahead of the front will likely climb into the mid to upper 80s along the I-84 corridor.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end Thursday evening as the cold front crosses the region and stalls over the mid-Atlantic states. This will result in decreasing clouds Thursday night and mostly sunny and less humid weather on Friday with weak high pressure overhead. Highs on Friday will reach the mid-70s to mid- 80s.
The remainder of the forecast period will consist of a series of upper-level shortwaves crossing the region, which will result in additional chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. Run-to- run consistency of these shortwaves is poor resulting in lower confidence in timing. Latest trends suggest the better shower chances are on Saturday and either Monday or Tuesday of next week (pending the arrival of the next shortwave) with Sunday trending drier (in-between shortwaves). Will cap the extended with chance pops until confidence in timing of each shortwave increases. Highs on most days will be in the 70s with some mid to upper 60s at times across the higher elevations.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12z/Wed...Any lingering fog will lift early this morning with VFR conditions otherwise with developing fair weather cumulus at around 5 kft and some high cirrus. An upper level disturbance passing by to the north could develop some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours from KALB/KPSF north to KGFL. Have included VCSH for these sites. Any shower or storm that does occur could reduce vsbys into the IFR/MVFR range. Will monitor trends and amend as necessary. Any activity should stay north of KPOU.
Shower activity may linger into this evening near KGFL but end elsewhere with some patchy mid and high clouds around for tonight. Where rain does fall and enough clearing occurs, fog could develop overnight. For now, will only include MVFR vsbys at KGFL tonight where confidence is highest on possible showers today.
Wind will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt today. Wind will decrease to 5 kt or less tonight (except 5-10 kt at KALB).
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperature for May 21:
Albany: 92 in 1941 Glens Falls: 93 in 1921 Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996
Record High Temperature for May 22:
Albany: 97 in 1911 Glens Falls: 98 in 1911 Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KALB ALBANY INTL,NY | 5 sm | 47 min | SSE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 59°F | 78% | 29.98 | |
| KSCH SCHENECTADY COUNTY,NY | 15 sm | 50 min | S 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 29.98 |
Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 4.7 |
| 4 am |
| 5.2 |
| 5 am |
| 5.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 2.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT 5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.9 |
| 3 am |
| 4.8 |
| 4 am |
| 5.3 |
| 5 am |
| 5.2 |
| 6 am |
| 4.5 |
| 7 am |
| 3.6 |
| 8 am |
| 2.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Albany, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE