Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orford, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:43PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:03 AM PDT (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 837 Am Pdt Thu May 23 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Today..NW wind 30 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 15 to 20 kt...backing to nw 20 to 25 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. Mixed swell nw 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds and W 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW wind 30 kt...becoming N after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming N 10 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 20 to 25 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW wind 30 kt...becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 20 to 25 kt... Becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 4 to 5 ft and W 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt except N 10 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sat night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 kt... Veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sun..N wind 15 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon and evening, then...easing to 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Mon..NW wind 5 kt...backing to W in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ300 837 Am Pdt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas will continue through Friday night. Conditions will improve Saturday, then north winds are expected to return Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orford, OR
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location: 42.74, -124.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 231537
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
837 am pdt Thu may 23 2019

Discussion Latest model data is trending wetter for the weekend,
particularly late Saturday and perhaps Sunday. It will be
interesting and important to see the morning ensemble members
(arriving around 11am) from the GEFS to see if they're in better
agreement with the weekend low forecast to move south from
washington into the forecast area. In any case, today our focus
will be fine- tuning the forecast and messaging potential impacts
to any weekend outdoor activities. One thing we'll be looking at,
even though we're in late may, are snow levels. Right now the data
and pattern supports snow levels dipping to around 5000 feet
Saturday night and Sunday morning, so for those traveling into the
mountains this weekend, expect a period of cool and wet
conditions, with the possibility for some slippery roadways and
snowfall. Of course due to the late may Sun angle, any snow
impacts to roadways would only occur overnight or in the early
morning hours.

Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details
on the weekend weather.

Aviation For the 23 12z tafs... Along the coast and over the
coastal waters... Widespread ifr CIGS will persist through this
evening with patchy drizzle and fog, except south of CAPE blanco and
5-10 miles offshore whereVFR conditions will prevail.

Inland areas west of the cascades...VFR conditions will prevail
through Thursday evening, except for areas of late night into
morning ifr MVFR cigs, mostly over the umpqua basin.

From the cascades east...VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening, but there will be scattered showers with isolated
afternoon evening thunderstorms over higher terrain.

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Thursday 23 may 2019... Offshore high
pressure coastal thermal trough pattern will continue into Friday
afternoon and evening. Look for strong north winds south of gold
beach and roughly 3 to 5 nm away from shore Thursday. As a result,
seas will likely be hazardous for most of Thursday. The thermal
trough will still persist into Friday, but winds will be about 3 to
5 knots weaker and seas should be lower as a result. Therefore, we
felt like a small craft advisory was more appropriate for all the
waters on Friday.

A cold front will move into the waters Friday night bringing a steep
fresh swell into the region. Wave heights will be around 10 feet at
10 seconds when this front moves through. Another quick moving
system will keep seas high and steep into Saturday. Eventually,
low seas will develop Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds.

-smith

Prev discussion issued 356 am pdt Thu may 23 2019
short term... Morning satellite imagery reveals plenty of low
cloudiness over the coastal waters and adjacent inland areas of
coos and douglas counties where there could be some drizzle early
on, but an area of clear extends southward from port orford to
brookings. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy across the remainder
of the forecast area with isolated showers out in portions of
lake modoc counties. We'll remain in between upper level low
pressure located over the desert SW great basin and a ridge
offshore. This will maintain broad north-northeast flow, but with
a general warming of the air mass aloft. Clouds pull back to near
the coast this afternoon, but it should at least be partly sunny
elsewhere. Some moisture will continue to wrap around the low
resulting in isolated to scattered showers, primarily near the
cascades and also over portions of SE lake and modoc counties this
afternoon and evening. There is some instability over the
cascades, and latest convection allowing models (cams) still show
isolated cells that could produce lightning, so we'll maintain the
going forecast for thunder there. Overall, high temperatures
should be right around normal for this time of year (low to mid
70s west side valleys and mid 60s east side).

Tonight into Friday morning, clouds return to coastal areas and
inland into the umpqua basin. Some of these could spill over into
the rogue illinois valleys. With the deeper marine push, it will
be cooler north of the umpqua divide Friday afternoon. But,
temperatures south and east of there should be similar to where
they end up today. The next disturbance dropping southward from bc
will develop into a closed low by Friday evening near the wa or
border. Instability will increase Friday afternoon evening in
advance of this system with showers and isolated thunderstorms
from southern siskiyou county northeastward across modoc lake
counties. Most everywhere else will remain dry, but isolated
showers may also develop near or just north of roseburg.

Additional energy will dive southward along the bc coast Friday
night, then along the pacnw Saturday and eventually into
california on Sunday. This will bring an increasing likelihood of
showers focused across much of our area Saturday night, then
especially from the cascades siskiyous eastward on Sunday. -spilde
long term... From Wednesday afternoon's discussion... Sunday
through Wednesday... Not much has changed with the overall pattern
through the holiday weekend. General troughing will remain over
the area which means we could be dealing with a chance of showers
and afternoon and early evening thunderstorms Sunday through
memorial day for most inland locations.

There's been fairly good agreement among the models the past couple
of runs. However the latest ECMWF now shows a stronger upper low
moving south along the oregon coast and has enough over water
trajectory to produce a significant amount of moisture for this time
of the year on Sunday. The GFS and canadian have stayed the course
and show a weaker upper low near or over the area which would result
in a fair amount of dry time in the morning, especially west of the
cascades followed by increasing showers in the afternoon with
isolated thunderstorms possible. It remains to be seen if the latest
ecmwf solution is a one hit wonder or will it revert back to a
solution that's more in line with the GFS canadian. For this reason
and high spread among some of the ensemble members, have decided not
to increase pops much on Sunday, but watch for updates on this
should future runs continue to show the wetter solution.

The upper low is expected to set up southeast of our area Monday and
there is concern we could be caught up in some wraparound moisture.

It this turns out to be the case, then we'll have a higher chance
for showers pretty much all day with the highest chance for showers
in the afternoon and evening. The individual ensemble members show a
pretty good spread with the location of the upper low. Confidence is
higher we'll have frequent showers east of the cascades, but lower
for shower coverage west of the cascades, especially Monday morning.

The upper should finally move far enough away where we could end up
with drier and milder conditions next Tuesday. Wednesday also looks
mostly dry and milder, although isolated showers are possible in the
afternoon east of the cascades. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Saturday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Friday for pzz356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 0 mi34 min NW 12 G 17 56°F 53°F1017.8 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 43 mi88 min N 5.1 G 8 53°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR47 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair64°F48°F58%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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--NW15NW15
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5NW53S6Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN6NW5CalmNW5NW5NW6
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CalmSW75W644

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Oregon
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Port Orford
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Thu -- 12:29 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:44 AM PDT     6.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:59 AM PDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM PDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM PDT     3.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.26.16.76.86.45.33.82.20.8-0.2-0.5-0.20.82.13.54.75.45.75.554.33.83.73.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Thu -- 12:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:46 AM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:06 AM PDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM PDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     2.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.35.15.75.95.54.63.420.7-0.2-0.5-0.30.51.72.944.754.84.33.73.233.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.