Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orford, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:12PM Saturday September 23, 2017 11:04 AM PDT (18:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:35AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 813 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..N wind 10 kt...becoming nw 25 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 kt...becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 to 20 kt...veering to N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell W 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and W 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 5 kt...veering to N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun night..N wind 25 kt...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. SWell W 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell nw 3 ft.
Mon night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. SWell W 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 kt...rising to 25 kt in the evening, then... Easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 7 ft. SWell nw 5 to 6 ft.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw in the evening, then... Becoming variable less than 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ300 813 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Short period northwest swell will gradually subside today while a thermal trough maintains gusty north winds and steep seas south of cape blanco. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening through the middle of next week, and small craft advisory conditions will spread north Sunday to cover a broader area south of cape blanco. North winds may increase even further late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, spreading to include some areas north of cape blanco. North winds will diminish Wednesday into Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orford, OR
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location: 42.74, -124.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 231555
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
855 am pdt Sat sep 23 2017

Discussion A weak impulse moving south into the coastal waters
and the umpqua basin is showing up as a radar return but so far no
measurable rain has been reported. Short term models keep light
showers in the coastal waters and mostly cloudy sky in the rogue
valley through the early evening hours before the impulse moves
out of the area. Grids were upgraded to account for greater sky
cover today. The latest model continues to show the warming trend
through next week with high temperatures rising to seasonal norms
by Monday, then 5 to 10 degrees higher around Wednesday.

Aviation 23 12z TAF cycle... Patchy fog and low ceilings are
affecting coastal areas north of CAPE blanco this morning, with some
ifr conditions likely in portions of the umpqua basin. These lower
conditions should lift toVFR by mid morning, and a return of low
clouds and fog to the coast is likely this evening.

Elsewhere, generallyVFR conditions are expected through the next 24
hours. Sk

Marine Updated 800 am pdt Saturday, 23 september 2017... Short
period northwest swell will gradually subside today while a thermal
trough maintains gusty north winds and steep seas south of cape
blanco. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening through
the middle of next week, and small craft advisory conditions will
spread north Sunday to cover a broader area south of CAPE blanco.

North winds may increase even further late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening with strong north winds and a mix of steep to very
steep seas possible across a wider area, to include some areas north
of CAPE blanco. There is some potential for gales south of cape
blanco during this time period. North winds will diminish Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Sk cc

Fire weather Updated 300 am pdt Saturday, 23 september 2017... .

A warming and drying trend is expected through the middle of the
week. Temperatures are expected to peak, and humidity values are
expected to be at their lowest, around Thursday as the thermal
trough moves inland. Breezy and dry is a fair characterization of
the fire weather environment towards the coast south of CAPE blanco
and in western siskiyou county. Additionally, those favored north to
south oriented valleys like the umpqua and illinois, will see breezy
conditions during the afternoons. One thing we've noted when
perusing the data is that the high haines index never really gets
above 3 or 4, even when the thermal trough moves inland. This is
indicative of the changing of the seasons, and the lack of a very
dry air mass or the instability needed to create critical fire
weather conditions.

Looking further out, the mostly dry and warmer than normal
conditions should generally persist through week 2. This is
supported by the operational models, CPC outlooks, and cfsv2 model.

Sk

Prev discussion issued 645 am pdt Sat sep 23 2017
updated aviation discussion.

Discussion... A frost advisory and freeze warning are in effect
for the klamath basin early this morning... With a majority of the
east side valleys which have already had a killing freeze also
near or below freezing.

The main change to the forecast was to include a slight chance of
light rain this afternoon along the douglas county and coos
county coast as a shortwave trough moves south over the coastal
waters. A similar scenario is also expected for Monday afternoon
and evening, but have introduced just a 5 to 10% probability of
light rain for coos and douglas counties. This may be raised
pending support from another model run. Both of these disturbances
will bring an increase of mid and high level clouds for much of
the area... This afternoon and again Monday into early Tuesday.

Model agreement has been good and increased further with the 00z
gfs and ECMWF quite similar through Thursday.

A broad ridge currently over the eastern pacific ocean will be
the main driver of our weather through Thursday. High temperatures
will have a gradual, steady warming trend with a persistent
pattern of light to moderate night-time northeast winds at 5 to 15
mph. These winds will be strongest over the ridges of western
siskiyou, josephine, and curry counties. This will include
downslope warming at brookings with highs in the 70s through the
weekend, peaking around 80 on Tuesday and then nearly as warm on
Wednesday. Elsewhere, highs will trend to near normal by Sunday
with mid 70s to lower 80s in west side valleys and mid 60s on the
east side... Then above normal through the week with a peak in the
mid to upper 80s in west side valleys and near 80 on the east
side.

There is still a modest though impactful model difference
regarding the late week forecast. The ridge is expected to move
east to the rockies with a trough moving into the pacific
northwest. The GFS has trended slightly weaker and keeps rain
well north of our area. But, this should at least bring several
degrees of cooling and an onshore westerly flow next weekend.

Aviation... 23 12z TAF cycle... Patchy fog and low ceilings are
affecting coastal areas north of CAPE blanco this morning, with some
ifr conditions likely in portions of the umpqua basin. These lower
conditions should lift toVFR by mid morning, and a return of low
clouds and fog to the coast is likely this evening.

Elsewhere, generallyVFR conditions are expected through the next 24
hours. Sk
marine... Updated 300 am pdt Saturday, 23 september 2017... Short
period northwest swell will gradually subside today while a thermal
trough maintains gusty north winds and steep seas south of cape
blanco. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening through
the middle of next week, and small craft advisory conditions will
spread north Sunday to cover a broader area south of CAPE blanco.

North winds may increase even further late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening with strong north winds and a mix of steep to very
steep seas possible across a wider area, to include some areas north
of CAPE blanco. There is some potential for gales south of cape
blanco during this time period. North winds will diminish Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Sk cc
fire weather... Updated 300 am pdt Saturday, 23 september 2017... .

A warming and drying trend is expected through the middle of the
week. Temperatures are expected to peak, and humidity values are
expected to be at their lowest, around Thursday as the thermal
trough moves inland. Breezy and dry is a fair characterization of
the fire weather environment towards the coast south of CAPE blanco
and in western siskiyou county. Additionally, those favored north to
south oriented valleys like the umpqua and illinois, will see breezy
conditions during the afternoons. One thing we've noted when
perusing the data is that the high haines index never really gets
above 3 or 4, even when the thermal trough moves inland. This is
indicative of the changing of the seasons, and the lack of a very
dry air mass or the instability needed to create critical fire
weather conditions.

Looking further out, the mostly dry and warmer than normal
conditions should generally persist through week 2. This is
supported by the operational models, CPC outlooks, and cfsv2 model.

Sk

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Frost advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for orz029.

Freeze warning until 9 am pdt this morning for orz029.

Ca... Frost advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for caz084.

Freeze warning until 9 am pdt this morning for caz084.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Tuesday for pzz356-376.

Fjb fjb nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 0 mi46 min NW 7 G 9.9 62°F 53°F1018.5 hPa
46015 - Port Orford - 16 NM West of Port Orford, OR 19 mi34 min N 9.7 G 14 57°F 57°F1019.6 hPa56°F
46128 38 mi64 min 1020.3 hPa (+0.7)
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 43 mi88 min S 2.9 G 5.1 55°F1019.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR47 mi68 minVar 510.00 miOvercast67°F42°F41%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3NW9NW11
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NE9NE7NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm355
1 day ago3W4CalmW5333CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5CalmCalmCalmCalm5NE8N5
2 days ago55Calm4W5NW8W5CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Port Orford
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:26 AM PDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM PDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:24 PM PDT     7.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM PDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:26 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.75.96.66.55.84.63.32.21.71.82.73.95.36.57.27.16.34.93.41.90.90.612.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:23 AM PDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:22 AM PDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:21 PM PDT     6.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM PDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:26 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.15.35.95.85.14.12.91.91.41.52.23.44.75.86.46.35.64.431.70.80.50.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.