Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coopers, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:29PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:44 AM EST (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coopers, NY
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location: 42.74, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 181538
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1038 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
Lake effect snow showers and flurries will gradually diminish
through early afternoon. High pressure will break up the clouds
later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures trend warmer
Wednesday onward, but a system will also bring rain Thursday
night into Friday.

Near term through Wednesday
1030 am update...

lake effect snow showers and flurries continue across much of
central new york as the steering flow persist from around 320
degrees. Warming at 850mb and backing flow will end the activity
during the early afternoon. Current forecast in good shape just
minor adjustments to short term pops and temperatures.

445 am update...

it will not last long, but it appears that the passage of an
embedded subtle shortwave, on the backside of retreating upper
trough-at-large, is briefly reconnecting some upstream georgian
bay moisture after all. This will enhance the light snow from
penn yan through western-southern tompkins county through tioga
county and even northeast bradford-western susquehanna counties.

For those areas, a few tenths to a half inch of snow
accumulation could result prior to dawn. Other that that
localized enhancement, the general diminishing-to-flurries
regime discussed below is still expected to transpire.

Previous discussion...

cold yet fairly quiet conditions are expected today through
Wednesday morning, then a moderation in temperatures will begin.

Expansive yet shallow stratocumulus persists across the region
early this morning. Flow has taken on enough northerly component
for georgian bay to no longer contribute any moisture, and the
air mass itself is very dry. With short residence time over lake
ontario, only limited moisture is managing to get picked up. So
while lake effect streamers continue south-southeast of lake
ontario and the finger lakes, across much of central new york
and even slightly into northern pennsylvania; at this point they
are only amounting to flurries with very little additional
accumulation.

Dryness of arctic air mass will cause flurries to eventually
succumb, but stratocumulus will take longer to erode. With warm
air advection already beginning aloft, sharpening subsidence
inversion underneath will serve as an effective surface upon
which to focus for lingering lake moisture. Sunshine will
indeed break out for parts of the central twin tiers and
especially wyoming-susquehanna valleys to poconos in
pennsylvania, as well as along and north of the mohawk valley in
new york. But for the usual suspects southeast of lake ontario
- syracuse, cortland, norwich, binghamton - the stratocumulus
deck feeding off of lake ontario will be remarkably stubborn
until towards the end of the day. Even into this evening, a
ribbon of clouds may still persist in an axis roughly from
syracuse to oneonta.

After starting off in the teens to mid 20s, the last of the low
level cold air advection on the front side of the cold incoming
high pressure will prevent temperatures from getting above 20s-
lower 30s for highs today. The for tonight, high pressure passes
directly over the region which along with mostly clear sky will
promote radiational cooling of a very dry air mass. At this time
we are figuring on lows in the teens to near 20, but undoubtedly
some of our most cooling prone locations could find their way
into single digits including some valleys of the twin tiers-
western catskills, and especially northern oneida county where a
better snowpack exists.

We get into return flow on the backside of departing high
pressure Wednesday. After a crisp cold dawn, the result will be
for a moderation in temperatures to mid 30s-lower 40s which is a
few degrees above climatological average highs. Sunshine will
be interfered at times by high clouds from embedded weak waves
translating through the ridge aloft; overall a quiet dry day.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
2 am update...

high pressure quickly moves off the coast as a deep southerly
flow of warm moist air starts. This will allow lows only in the
20s Wednesday night as dewpoint temperatures start to rise.

Thursday despite the high clouds temperatures will peak in the
40s. Low chance pops in the south late in the day, but the rain
will start Thursday evening and continue through Friday.

Thursday night temperatures are steady then rise overnight into
the mid and upper 40s, before 50s Friday. Rainfall amounts are
around an inch with higher amounts in the southeast. Pwats
around 1". 3 standard deviations above normal. Moisture coming
straight from the gulf but system is progressive. Rain could be
heavy at times. The heaviest rain axis is in our eastern zones
at worst, and best along the coast into new england. This amount
of rain over 24 hours can be handled but will need to watch
where the heavy rain band sets up Friday morning.

Long term Friday night through Monday
2 am update...

little change again this morning. A strong stacked low moves
through Friday evening on its way northeast to quebec. This
storm will continue to wrap moisture around it and into our
region through Saturday. Beyond that less moisture but still
some snow showers as northwest flow sets up. Temperatures closer
to normal.

Previous discussion...

as the low pressure system pulls away from the area, there will
be wrap-around showers Saturday with snow mixing in at higher
elevations. As winds shift to a more westerly northwesterly
direction, showers will be more of a result of lake effect. As
temperatures drop further late Saturday Saturday night, expect
any areas that were seeing either a rain snow shower mix or just
rain to change to all snow showers. Greatest chances of snow
showers Saturday night will be further north across cny to as
far south as the southern tier. Lower chances across nepa.

Similar story for Sunday with seasonable temperatures and
scattered lake effect snow showers, especially for cny. Monday's
forecast is a bit more uncertain with considerable differences
between some of the models. The ECMWF and canadian has a weak
low pressure system moving through the area before pushing
offshore. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps this disturbance well south
of the area with just some lake effect snow showers across cny.

Should a scenario like what the ECMWF and canadian shows pan
out, we would expect a light accumulating snow across much of
the area. If a scenario similar to what the GFS shows pans out,
most of the area should remain dry with just some possible lake
effect snow showers across cny. To account for this uncertainty,
put in only chance pops for the entire area for now.

In terms of temperatures, following the departure of the low
pressure on Saturday, temperatures will return to closer to normal
with afternoon highs in the 30s. The caveat is that official highs
on Saturday will likely be reached shortly after midnight (in
the 40s), before dropping as the low pressure system departs and the
winds shift from southerly to more westerly. Highs and lows Sunday
and Monday will remain seasonable (30s highs, 20s lows).

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
Cold air streaming across the great lakes will keep a ceiling
going through the morning, and even most of the day for ksyr-
kbgm-kith, but the air overall is quite dry. This will prevent
ceilings from getting into fuel alternate range, though kith-
kbgm-ksyr will still have light lake effect flurries for a time
this morning. Kbgm will even still briefly have a fuel alternate
required ceiling until shortly after 12z. The cloud deck will
teeter between 2 and 4 thousand feet, with dry high pressure
eventually scattering it out this afternoon-evening. Winds will
continue out of the northwest at 10-15 knots with gusts to 25
knots, until incoming high pressure slackens it late today into
this evening.VFR expected tonight, other than ksyr still
getting a lake effect MVFR deck for a time this evening.

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night through Friday night... Large system impacts area
with restrictions and rain.

Saturday... A lingering chance of mixed rain-snow showers and
associated restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp rrm
near term... Mdp rrm
short term... Tac
long term... Bjg tac
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 76 mi74 min 27°F 1017 hPa13°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 94 mi50 min NNW 12 G 15 23°F 1022.9 hPa12°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY40 mi51 minNW 1210.00 miFair20°F10°F68%1022.6 hPa

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1 day agoSE7SE5SE5S4CalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmSE4E3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN3CalmW10
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2 days agoN6N5W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmE3E3E3SE5E3CalmE8E6E7SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Tue -- 12:32 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:07 PM EST     4.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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443.42.41.510.4-0.10.31.42.83.84.44.74.43.62.61.91.30.50.30.923

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:49 AM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:24 PM EST     4.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.23.82.81.81.20.6-0-0.10.82.33.64.44.84.8432.21.60.80.20.41.52.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.