Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haslett, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:21PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 10:03 PM EDT (02:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 11:45PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-170623t0115z/ 844 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 915 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... At 844 pm edt...a strong Thunderstorm was located near the ambassador bridge...moving northeast at 30 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Grosse pointe around 855 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 910 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...st clair flats old channel light and mt clemens harbor of refuge around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4255 8259 4256 8263 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4232 8312 4238 8295 4245 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8263 4261 8254 4262 8260 4261 8258 4260 8255 4261 8253 time...mot...loc 0044z 241deg 29kt 4238 8306 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201706230115;;663543 FZUS73 KDTX 230044 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 844 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 LCZ423-460-230115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haslett, MI
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location: 42.74, -84.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 290002
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
802 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 329 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
a risk of showers and thunderstorms will exist through the rest of
the work week. However peak times for rain should occur tonight,
and Thursday night, and Friday afternoon and evening. Humidity
levels will increase on Thursday and remain muggy into Friday. It
will warm each day, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

It appears we will dry out by the weekend, but more rain chances
return by Monday and Monday night, and again Wednesday. High
temperatures this weekend and into mid week should mainly remain
from 80 to 85.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 329 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
a wet and stormy pattern is in store through Friday night. It will
also turn much more humid and warm.

The general pattern is somewhat zonal across the great lakes through
the short term, but upper lows over canada will continue to bring a
series of short waves that will bring periodic showers and storms.

With precipitable water values occasionally in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch
range, some localized rains can be expected. We will also see an
occasional bouts with severe storms.

We continue to see the MCV over central lake mi move east and
weaken. This will bring a few dieing showers to areas mainly north
of i-96 into the evening. Meanwhile the that is over SW wi is
producing more storms across ia, il and wi. This jet will head
toward the NW portion of the grr CWA late tonight and will bring
another surge of pcpn mainly to areas along and north of i-96.

Instability will be a bit questionable tonight, so not expect much
risk of severe storms. With the LLJ nosing the NW CWA expect the
heaviest rains to occur there tonight, with half to three quarters
of an inch possible.

The pcpn will exit Thursday morning, only to see another surge
arrive late afternoon early evening. We should be able to recover
the instability in the mid day lull making severe weather possible.

Another llj, along with solid upper divergence from the upper jet,
arrives by late afternoon early evening. Bulk shear also looks
favorable, around 30 knots, to anticipate organized storms. Damaging
wind and large hail will be the main threats, but we can not rule
out an isolated tornado with favorable shear in the lowest 1km.

Seems that the highest threat will be over eastern half of the cwa,
and south of mt. Pleasant. The severe threat winds down after
midnight as the jet dynamics exits. The heaviest rain Thursday
night should be south of i-96.

Friday and Friday will also see bouts of showers and storms. The
possibility of severe also exists late afternoon early evening
especially over the SW CWA where yet another short wave and LLJ and
upper jet moves in. Once again the heaviest rain threat appears to
along and south of i-96.

All told expect we will see some areas pick up over two inches of
rain mainly south of i-96. The rain soaked central lower mi should
see it's steadiest rains tonight, with lesser amounts after that.

Most areas north of i-96 should see a half an inch to an inch of
rain through Friday night.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 329 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
the main challenge in the long term deals with the timing of any
showers or thunderstorms.

The long term period will start off with a mid level low across the
canadian prairies that will be dropping southeast into the great
lakes region on Sunday. The associated height falls along with some
diurnal instability may lead to a few showers or perhaps
thunderstorms. The axis of deeper moisture shifts east on Sunday so
the main period for precipitation would be on Saturday. Temperatures
will likely end up being close to normal during the day but a little
below normal at night.

Then a positively tilted mid level shortwave slowly drops into the
lower ohio or middle mississippi valley for Monday into Tuesday. We
will be on the north side of this system. It will tap some gulf
moisture supporting better instability. Mid to upper level winds
will weaken with time. Thus any storms that do form could be slow
moving. As a result... There could be a heavy rain risk with them.

Will feature scattered thunderstorms for the period.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 802 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
a warm front will lift north through the area this evening with
showers and a few thunderstorms moving through early (through 03z).

A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms may move
through the area after 03z as storms move our way from wisconsin
and illinois. There is low confidence in the evolution of the
showers storms though as they will be moving into less unstable
air over lower michigan. So, at this point have introduced some
vcts wording as well as some tempo groups after 03z. Aviation
interests should monitor the storms moving towards lake michigan
this evening.

Otherwise, we are looking at a period of MVFR ceilings tomorrow
morning at the northern TAF sites of kmkg, kgrr and klan. Also,
llws is expected tonight as a strong low level jet moves through
the area. Southwest winds of 45-50 knots are expected at 2000ft.

It will be windy at the surface as well much of the next 24 hours
with southwesterly winds of 12-30 knots.

Marine
Issued at 329 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
will continue the marine headlines, with improvement not expected
until Thursday afternoon.

Hydrology
Issued at 223 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
river levels continue to fall and should continue falling into
tonight. There could be some minor rises by Thursday as a quarter
to three quarters of an inch of rain is expected tonight into
Thursday morning. Another half inch to an inch of rain is expected
on Friday, causing more moderate rises by Saturday.

During both these periods of expected rainfall there will be the
chance for thunderstorms with heavier amounts of rain. This could
cause sharp rises, especially where soils are still saturated such
as along the muskegon, chippewa and pine rivers.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through Thursday afternoon for miz037-
043-050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Thursday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Jk
short term... Jk
long term... Mjs
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Ostuno
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 82 mi64 min S 19 G 21 68°F 1011.5 hPa (-1.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 83 mi64 min S 4.1 G 8 72°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.4)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 87 mi46 min S 9.9 G 12 75°F 1013.8 hPa52°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI11 mi71 minSSE 910.00 miLight Rain70°F52°F53%1011.7 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi70 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F55°F65%1012.2 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi69 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast69°F53°F57%1012.5 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI24 mi70 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain68°F52°F58%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS5SW8SW9S8SW14S13S12S12S15S12
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1 day agoW9W7W6W6NW8NW6W4W5W6W9W9W9W11
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2 days agoSW6SW5SW4W6SW7SW8W7W7SW6W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.