Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haslett, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:19PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:42 AM EST (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;348663 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haslett, MI
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location: 42.74, -84.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 221617
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1117 am est Fri feb 22 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Fri feb 22 2019
- rain showers and a few storms become likely by Saturday night,
with a possible brief period of freezing rain at the onset Saturday
especially up north
- confidence continues to increase for a high wind event centered
around Sunday and into Sunday night
- colder next week with chances for snow showers

Update
Issued at 1054 am est Fri feb 22 2019
no significant fcst changes are needed late this morning. A
consensus of latest computer model guidance continues to suggest
potential for wind gusts to reach 50-60 mph Sunday. Snow showers
will develop Sunday but accumulations will be quite light at less
than an inch for most of our fcst area and an inch or two for our
northern fcst area. As such impacts from wind with this rapidly
deepening low pressure system in the form of downed trees limbs power
outages are our primary concern for Sunday.

Discussion (today through next Thursday)
issued at 330 am est Fri feb 22 2019
we will be holding on to the winter storm watch as is with it
focused mainly around the high wind potential for Sunday, with some
snow showers and blowing snow possible. We are also monitoring the
ice potential for the onset of the precipitation, and whether a
headline would be needed for that.

Quiet and tranquil weather is expected for the first 24 hours, with
a decent amount of sunshine expected after some light fog early this
morning. High clouds will dominate the sky with some patchy low
clouds here and there. We should stay dry through tonight, except
for some very light pcpn that may bring trace amounts of some mixed
pcpn toward 12z as the initial moisture transport moves through. Low
level moisture will be quite limited, which should the pcpn amounts.

We expect that the core of the precipitation will occur over the
area beginning late Sat afternoon and linger into Sunday. This is
when we see the main push of moisture transport arrive via a 60 knot
low level jet that surges in through 06z sun. Our thinking at this
time is that most of the area should see temperatures warm above
freezing by the time most of the precipitation arrives. A small
chance exists that some locations up north could see temps hold
around freezing that would allow for some light accumulations of
freezing rain at the onset.

As the main batch of precipitation arrives late Saturday and
Saturday evening, a thunder threat does exist over most of the area.

The instability is sufficient with air parcels at and above 850 mb.

Elevated LI S are a little below zero c, and there is a couple
hundred j kg of mucape. We do not anticipate severe weather at this
time with capes on the limited side, and instability based at and
above 850 mb. It is possible some higher wind gusts could occur with
the convection.

The thunder threat should last through 06z, along with a surge of
temps maybe into the 50s across the south. After 06z, we will see
the occluded front race through the area. Rain showers will linger
behind the frontal passage, and change to snow for a short time
frame before temporarily diminishing as the system pcpn moves out.

The bigger thing going on is we will see the winds ramp up first at
the frontal passage, then again after a short break before 12z
Sunday.

Models and respective ensembles are in fairly good agreement with
bringing the strong winds to the area around or just after 12z sun.

This is when we have good cold air advection, and a strong pressure
rise fall couplet moving through as a result of the deepening low.

There is a good chance that most of the area will see wind gusts of
50+ knots, or 60 mph for much of Sunday. We have 50 knots of wind
only 1k feet above the sfc which will be mixed down easily with the
cold air advection.

The other factor on Sunday is how much snow shower activity will be
present with lake effect becoming possible, and obvious blowing and
drifting that would occur. Over lake instability is obviously
sufficient with 850 mb temps dropping to the negative mid teens c.

Moisture is not bad with it being present to almost 10k feet. The
limiting factor seems to be that we do not appear to have the
northern jet core south of the area. The southern branch is south,
but the deep cold air is not really there. The models and their
ensembles are limited with snow accumulations. The northern two rows
look favored for a few inches of snow with the departing system, and
lake effect coming from northern lake michigan with a NW flow. It
will not take much drier snow to fall to be able to blow around with
the magnitude of wind.

Winds will only slowly diminish Sunday night through Monday, with
some lake effect remaining. Conditions should improve with regards
to wind by Tuesday. We could remain in between systems then for much
of the week, as high pressure will slowly ooze through the area.

Temps will remain cold, and a few snow showers will be possible.

Conditions do not look favorable for significant accumulations with
short waves not coming right through the area.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1110 am est Fri feb 22 2019
vfr conditions will continue this afternoon through tonight and
Saturday morning. Conditions will then slowly deteriorate to MVFR
Saturday afternoon due to development of low clouds as well as
some patchy fog. Light rain showers will develop around to shortly
after 18z Saturday.

Hydrology
Issued at 232 pm est Thu feb 21 2019
the ice jam on the grand river in portland remains in place, and is
expected to hold in through the end of this week. Fluctuations can
be expected in river levels.

High temperatures will reach into the 40s this weekend. The snow
melt and expected rainfall of a half inch to three quarters of
an inch will cause river ice to breakup and move downstream,
possibly leading to ice jams. This may also bring a few sites,
mainly on the grand river, to around bankfull.

Temperatures will cool back down next week to below freezing with
lows into the single digits. This will lead to ice formation on area
rivers and could lead to stabilization of the rivers.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Winter storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for miz037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Update... Laurens
synopsis... Njj
discussion... Njj
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... 63


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 82 mi42 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 24°F 1030.8 hPa (+0.7)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 83 mi42 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 29°F 1032.5 hPa (+1.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 87 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 29°F 1031.9 hPa (+1.2)21°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI11 mi49 minE 67.00 miFair29°F21°F75%1032.1 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi47 minE 510.00 miFair30°F21°F68%1030.8 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair28°F19°F69%1031.5 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI24 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair31°F19°F63%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW19
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W17W15W9W9W10W9W6NW4W3W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6
1 day agoE14E20
G26
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SE12SE12S9S7SW11SW15W18
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2 days agoSE5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSE6E4SE3E3CalmE4E4E5E4E7E7E6E10E11E8E13E13E12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.