Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 4:05 AM   Moonset 5:01 PM

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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Through early evening - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 knots veering east toward daybreak. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - East winds around 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Monday night - East winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots veering south late in the day. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wednesday - West winds around 15 knots veering north late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds around 20 knots backing north late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 051802 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 202 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool tonight, high clouds through Monday night

- Risk for Thunderstorms Tuesday

- Unsettled and cooling down for the end of the week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

- Cool tonight, high clouds through Monday night

Latest visible loop shows stratus south of I-96 continuing to erode from north to south as drier air moves south from Canada.
Concurrently, some high clouds from the lower MS Valley are starting to move north toward Lower MI, but they are thin and won't do much to block the sun for the remainder of the day.

High pressure will settle over Lower MI tonight generating some light winds and helping temperatures fall into the upper 30s across the northern cwa to upper 40s over the southern cwa. There may be a very isolated frost potential in low lying areas of the northern cwa tonight, but not wide spread enough for headlines.

Monday looks like a mostly sunny day as upper riding follows the surface high across the state. High clouds will likely move in from the southwest during the day and more so Monday night as a warm front develops over the MO Valley and begins to move in this direction.

HRRR sky cover progs point toward increasing clouds throughout the night as the warm front approaches; any precipitation associated with the front will hold off until Tuesday.

- Risk for Thunderstorms Tuesday

Models continue to show a deeper trough pivoting in from the southwest during the day on Tuesday. We will have to monitor the trends as a stronger mid level jet will be near or just south of Southern Lower MI during the Tuesday aftn/eve hours. This feature will support favorable deep layer shear in that region. An upper level jet will provide diffluence over Lower MI during the afternoon/eve as well. Models vary on the projected SB instability with the NAM showing very little while the GEM and GFS are suggesting we may top 1000 J/kg in southern parts of the CWA, around Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson.

- Unsettled and cooling down for the end of the week

A series of mid level troughs dig their way down through the Great Lakes region for the end of the week drawing down cooler air from Canada. One surface wave tracks through the MI/IN border region Wednesday night into early Thursday providing some rain. A secondary surface wave arrives Saturday leading to another round of rain. By Friday and continuing into Saturday, 850 mb temps are shown to make a run at 0 deg C for northern parts of the CWA This would keep max temps below normal. Those projected 850 mb temps would be cold enough to lead to lake enhanced moisture so its likely to be rather cloudy as well. With precipitation forecasted, we could easily end up stuck in the 50's Friday and possibly into the weekend. Ensemble temperature forecasts have overall been trending lower as well, adding confidence for cooler than normal temperatures. We will therefore lower the temperatures accordingly in the forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 2027 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Dry air advection will be on the increase this afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in from the west. Satellite trends show the the area of clouds over Southern Lower MI, shifting south with time. Thus the TAF sites will feature mainly clear skies through the period. There is a small chance that an area of lower clouds/fog may redevelop late tonight as decent radiational cooling is expected, however confidence on it occurring was too low to add it to the forecast at this time. An onshore flow will likely develop at KMKG this afternoon as temperatures warm up inland.

MARINE
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

No marine issues for the next 36 hrs as high pressure at the surface and aloft move over the lake. Thunderstorms will pose a marine hazard Tuesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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