Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:31PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:37 AM EDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 928 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers through early afternoon, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west gales to 35 knots late at night, then veering northwest to 30 knots toward daybreak. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds around 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201809252115;;187068 FZUS53 KGRR 251328 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 928 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-252115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 251148
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
748 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 300 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
a low pressure system will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms today with a better chance for thunderstorms along
and just ahead of a cold front that will move across southwestern
lower michigan this evening. Some severe storms are possible late
this afternoon and evening. It will turn much cooler Wednesday
through Thursday. A slow moving frontal boundary will bring potential
for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.

Discussion (today through next Monday)
issued at 300 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
primary fcst concerns involve determining potential for severe wx
late today tonight.

It will be warmer and become quite humid today due to continued
south to SW flow well out ahead of the cold front. Rgnl radar
trends show an area of showers and storms over west central
in east central il that is moving ne.

A consensus of latest cams suggests this activity will move into
our southern fcst area after daybreak. Additional showers will
continue to develop through the day and a few storms may develop
as well as instability increases later today.

The best chance for convection will come late this afternoon
through this evening along and out ahead of the approaching cold
front. Ample low level moisture will be in place with strong deep
layer shear this evening on the order of 40-50 kts. Sb ml cape
values will likely reach around 1k-2k j kg by late aftn eve.

All things considered some strong to severe storms are possible
late aftn through the eve. Fcst kinematic profiles suggest
potential for damaging wind gusts as the primary svr wx threat
given strong wind shear and increasing winds aloft.

In addition an isolated tornado seems possible late
this aftn eve over our southern fcst area as suggested by a
consensus of latest SPC sref svr wx parameters such as the
supercell composite parameter and craven brooks sig svr parameter.

There is also sufficient deep layer shear for organized convection
and even a couple of supercell storms.

However a fair amount of cloud cover is expected today. This will
potentially limit instability and mitigate the severe wx threat
somewhat.

It will become cooler and much less humid for mid to late week. A
slow moving frontal boundary will likely focus development of
rain and perhaps a few storms over our fcst area by Friday through
Saturday. High pressure will build in behind that system and
bring fair wx Saturday night and Sunday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 741 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
as anticipated, low clouds with ifr have plagued much of the
region this morning and they will be slow to lift. Visibilities
will largely stay out of the ifr category but local exceptions (of
short duration) are possible. Any storms that develop will likely
hold off until mid to late afternoon, and as such I did not
mention vcts just yet. Storm development is partly contingent on
how much cloud cover thins out today. Still some time to fine tune
the "time of arrival" details in the tafs.

Cold front passing through tonight will abruptly shift winds from
s to wnw and they could be gusty at mkg... Possibly over 30 kts.

Other sites should hold between 10-15 kts.

Marine
Issued at 300 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
southwest winds will ramp up significantly late tonight with brisk
northwest winds to follow for Wednesday. This is conjunction with
the cool air advection across relatively mild lake waters will
cause wave heights to build to around 4 to 7 feet late tonight
through Wednesday. Therefore we will hoist a small craft advisory
from midnight tonight through 8 pm Wednesday.

Hydrology
Issued at 956 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
rivers are running around to a little above normal for the time of
year. Levels are steady or slowly falling, and are well below flood
stage. Dry weather is expected into Monday. Under an inch of rain is
possible Monday into Tuesday, with no flooding expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Laurens
discussion... Laurens
aviation... Hoving
hydrology... 63
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi56 min 66°F 61°F1012.3 hPa64°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 90 mi28 min S 8.9 G 8.9 63°F 1012.6 hPa63°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi38 min S 11 G 12 66°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi45 minS 38.00 miOvercast68°F66°F96%1013.8 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI13 mi43 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F95%1013.9 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi43 minWSW 32.50 miRain69°F66°F91%1014.6 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi43 minS 47.00 miOvercast68°F66°F95%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E7E10SE11E8E12E10E8SE9SE9SE9SE8SE8SE9SE9S5S5S8S8S6S6S6S5S3
1 day agoSE34E544E5E6SE7E7E6E3E4E6E7E6E5NE3NE4NE3CalmNE4NE3E4E3
2 days agoNE7NE7E7645Calm3SE3NE4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.