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LEZ041 Expires:202404272115;;474698 Fzus51 Kbuf 271749 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 149 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-272115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 149 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
This afternoon - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 272311 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 711 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will continue to produce showers east of Lake Ontario this evening, with mainly dry weather across Western NY. Another warm front will cross the region Sunday, with several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms, a few of which may contain brief heavy downpours. A nearby frontal boundary will continue to bring a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday, but much warmer temperatures will arrive Sunday and last much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Radar imagery early this evening showing rain east of Lake Ontario associated with a warm front moving east across the area. The rain east of Lake Ontario will linger through mid to late evening before diminishing overnight. Elsewhere, dry weather now prevails from Western NY to the western Finger Lakes, and this will continue to be the case for most of the night. A few showers over northwest PA may sneak across the border into the western Southern Tier around mid evening, but otherwise dry weather will continue.

Late tonight another warm-frontal segment will begin to take shape across the southern Great Lakes, supported by increased warm advection from a strengthening southwesterly low level jet over the Ohio Valley. The combination of moisture transport and isentropic upglide across the warm frontal boundary, elevated instability, and several convectively augmented vorticity maxima moving from west to east atop the warm frontal zone will support an expanding area of showers over Lake Erie and southern Ontario. This rain will overspread Western NY Sunday morning, then develop/move ENE across the rest of the area Sunday.

Expect several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to cross the region Sunday. Given the elevated nature of forcing and instability, the stability provided by the lakes will initially not play a role. Later in the afternoon as the warm front drifts northeast, a stable lake shadow will try to develop over and east/northeast of Lake Erie, with lowering rain chances. Sunday will not be a total washout, but increased POPS quite a bit from the previous forecast given the handling of the warm front and associated rain in the latest 18Z model guidance.

Sunday will be characterized by late spring-like humidity with temps reaching into the lower 70s for the bulk of the region by mid to late afternoon and dewpoints in the lower 60s.

The warm frontal boundary from Sunday will stall Sunday night, and possibly start to drift back south as a cold front overnight. This will maintain the chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over and east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. A ribbon of higher than normal PWATs will be on the western side of the ridge, from the Lower Mississippi Valley to southern Ontario. A cold front will likely be stalled and stretched from the Niagara Frontier to the Finger Lakes region. A north-northeast flow on the cool side of the boundary will inhibit mixing of warmer temperatures aloft. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s with locations south of Lake Ontario staying in the low 60s. The stable airmass will keep mostly dry weather from north central NY to Interstate 90. It will be a different story on the warm side of the boundary where temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s, mainly from the Buffalo Southtowns to the Finger Lakes and south across the western Southern Tier. Surface based instability will increase through the afternoon and with help from the close proximity to the axis of higher moisture, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along and east of the lake breeze boundary.

The upper level ridge axis will move east and the axis of higher PWATS will move into the region overnight. Based off BUF sounding climatology, forecast PWATS will be near the maximum for late April.
The cold front across the region Monday will move north as a warm front and as low-level winds increase from the south. There is growing confidence that additional showers will develop on this warm front. Upstream convection from earlier will approach the region overnight. A convectively induced shortwave trough across southern Ontario may drive showers and thunderstorms into north central overnight. Mild conditions expected Monday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

A cold front will be just to the west Tuesday morning. The plume of higher moisture content will spread out and decrease as the upper level ridge flattens across the Northeast Tuesday. Scattered showers will be ongoing across portions of the region, especially around and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning. The front will move into western NY Tuesday morning and move east through the afternoon. The current timing of the front looks like areas east of the Genesee Valley will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is low on the amount of instability Tuesday due to the uncertainty in cloud cover and showers from Tuesday morning. Shear will be in place east of the boundary so if thunderstorms do develop there is a low chance they could be strong. Warm Tuesday with highs from the upper 60s to the low 70s, mid to upper 70s possible across valley locations in the Finger Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will end across western NY by Tuesday evening and east of Lake Ontario by late Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy rainfall but flash flooding is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak shortwave ridge moves through the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night which will likely bring dry weather to the region
After that
models shift or even flatten out the ridge aloft by Thursday, and also depict moisture increasing across region. Even with moisture increasing areawide shower and storm potential will all depend on the various advertised subtle features embedded within the flow aloft
For now
have kept chance PoPs (30-50%) beginning Thursday afternoon through the Friday. Beyond Friday, confidence further decreases with little consensus to either a wet or dry forecast for the weekend
Eitherway
it does appear like a mild week is on tap with temperatures remaining well above normal with highs in the 60s Wednesday then climbing into the 70s for all locales.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm front will continue to produce some rain east of Lake Ontario through mid to late evening before diminishing overnight. Otherwise, mainly dry weather will prevail for the rest of the area through most of tonight. There may be some spotty MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario and across the Southern Tier, otherwise mainly VFR will prevail tonight.

Another warm frontal segment will develop over the southern Great Lakes late tonight, then move ENE across the area Sunday. This will bring several rounds of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms to the region. A few pockets of heavier rainfall may produce brief/local VSBY restrictions. Widespread MVFR CIGS will develop by late morning and continue most of the day, with some IFR across the North Country. Western NY should improve back to VFR late in the day, especially southern areas of Western NY.

A low level jet will cross the area late this evening through Sunday morning, producing low level wind shear especially across Western NY.

Outlook...

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
A warm front will move east of Lake Ontario this evening. Following the passage of the warm front...a general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly tonight and Sunday. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria
This being said
a few thunderstorms will become possible Sunday with locally higher winds and waves possible.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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