Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 6:51PM Sunday October 22, 2017 6:40 PM EDT (22:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:42AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 304 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Through early evening..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots backing southwest late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
LMZ846 Expires:201710230815;;248916 FZUS53 KGRR 221904 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 304 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-230815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 221910
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
310 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 310 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
a slow moving cold front will cause showers to continue to develop
tonight. A strengthening area of low pressure will move north
along the boundary and cause rain to become heavy at times Monday
afternoon through Monday night. It will become windy and cooler
Tuesday with showers through the day.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 310 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
main short term fcst concerns involve determining potential for
heavy rain Monday through Monday night into Tuesday.

The slow moving cold front moving in from the west will cause
showers to continue to develop from west to east across our fcst
area late this afternoon through tonight. This notion is supported
by rgnl radar trends, SREF pops and a consensus of latest higher
resolution guidance such as the 3km nam.

A strengthening area of low pressure will move north and bring
portions of our area heavy rain Monday afternoon through Monday
night. We continue to prefer the 12z ECMWF and ECMWF trends for
several runs now that have been consistent in showing that a
southern stream disturbance currently over the panhandle of texas
will strengthen as it moves east.

It will then eventually get pulled north by the upper low amplifying
upper trough over our region tomorrow. This leads to development
of a stronger sfc low and potential for heavy rain near to east
of us-131 tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night where very
strong mid level PVA will develop.

The area near to mainly east of a line from mt. Pleasant to
kalamazoo is most favored for highest rainfall totals of around
1.5-3 inches Monday through Monday night into Tuesday. Highest
end totals within that range will most likely occur over our
eastern fcst area around klan and kjxn as suggested by the 12z
ecmwf.

Given the strength of moisture transport there Monday afternoon
and evening I would not be surprised to see locally higher totals
of around 4-5 inches for this event in our eastern fcst area. Our
going flood watch headline will remain unchanged. We considered
dropping osceola and mecosta counties from the watch but felt it's
a close enough call to keep those counties in it at this time.

It will be windy and cooler Tuesday with numerous showers with the
upper low and trof axis overhead. Showers will linger Tuesday
night.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 310 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
he wet and unsettled weather will continue through the long term
along with below normal temperatures.

A moderately strong short wave is progd to dig the back side of the
upper long wave trough Wednesday. This will result in scattered
showers. Thursday should be dry as short wave ridging moves over the
state. Then, another trough moves south from canada Friday through
the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers, especially along the
lake shore will prevail through Sunday.

Wednesday is probably going to be the coldest day with highs in the
upper 40s. Thursday could end up being warmer than the mid 50s highs
we have in the grids if the GFS verifies. It shows h8 temps near 10c
Thursday afternoon under the ridge. By Friday night, the system will
occlude as cold air wraps around the low and we'll see cold
advection from the southwest from late Friday through Sunday. Both
Saturday and Sunday should be below normal temperature wise with
highs in the lower 50s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 131 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
aviation conditions will deteriorate as we head toward this
evening. A large area of rain will move across lower michigan as
low pressure moves north from the southern u.S. CIGS will fall to
ifr overnight as the rain moves in. A strong south flow aloft will
create wind shear at TAF sites that have weaker surface winds.

It's also possible that there could be an embedded thunderstorm,
but chances were low enough that we left it out of the tafs.

Marine
Issued at 310 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
the small craft advisory continues in effect through 8 pm this
evening from holland northward. Wind speeds and wave heights will
subside overnight into Monday before ramping back up significantly
Monday night and especially on Tuesday when gales are likely to
develop.

Hydrology
Issued at 310 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017
showers will spread into the area from the west through this
evening, with coverage of rain filling in overnight. This looks to
bring about a half-inch of rain to west michigan by about 8am Monday
morning. Rain may be moderate in intensity at times, but is not
expected to cause flooding overnight.

There should be a brief decrease in shower activity Monday morning
before another round of rain develops over lower michigan Monday
afternoon and lasts into Tuesday. Most locations look to receive at
least an additional inch of rainfall, but a north-to-south
orientated swath of heavier rain, with amounts of possibly 3 to 5
inches, is expected over the lower peninsula. At this time, it looks
like this heavier swath of rain will be located somewhere between
u.S. 131 and the detroit-area. A flood watch therefore remains in
effect for counties generally east of u.S. 131. Localized flooding,
ponding on roadways, and rises in rivers, creeks, and streams could
occur within the area of heaviest rain. Confidence in the location
of the heaviest rain is not high, and refinements to the forecast
are still possible.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
miz039-040-045-046-051-052-057>059-065>067-072>074.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz846>849.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... 04
aviation... 04
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi41 min NW 12 G 17 1013.8 hPa (+0.5)
45029 10 mi21 min N 14 G 21 58°F 61°F3 ft1015.1 hPa55°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi41 min SSW 22 G 24 69°F
45168 27 mi21 min WSW 12 G 16 63°F 61°F3 ft1015 hPa58°F
45161 29 mi41 min NNW 19 G 21 56°F 60°F1014.5 hPa (+1.3)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi31 min N 12 G 14 55°F 1015.3 hPa55°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi51 min N 25 G 29 55°F 60°F5 ft1015 hPa (+2.3)
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi41 min SSW 12 G 16 64°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi48 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast68°F62°F81%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE9S9S9S10S8S9S11S11S9S10S9S8S11
G21
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G24
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1 day agoS5S5S5S6S6S5S6S5S5S4S5S5S6S6S7S8S14
G19
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2 days agoSW5CalmCalmS3S3SE3SE3SE3SE3S4S5CalmS4S5S4S6S8S10SW14
G19
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G22
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G22
SW12SW9S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.