Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:22PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:41 PM EST (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 959 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Friday night...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 6 to 8 feet after midnight.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers until midday. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
LMZ846 Expires:201811152215;;343733 FZUS53 KGRR 151459 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 959 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-152215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 151744
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1244 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
latest update...

aviation hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 302 am est Thu nov 15 2018
an large area of precipitation south of michigan early this
morning will move north into southwest lower michigan by mid
morning. The precipitation mostly be snow in southwest michigan.

The snow will spread across most of the area by early afternoon.

Accumulations will mostly be around an inch, but locally up to 2
inch is possible. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s. There
will be periods of snow tonight accumulations will be light,
mostly an inch or less. Some light snow may linger into the mid
morning hours of Friday. A cold front will bring the chance of
additional light snow Saturday. Dry weather is expected from
Sunday through thanksgiving. Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal though early next week but should return to near normal by
thanksgiving, with highs reaching into the 40s by then.

Update
Issued at 1135 am est Thu nov 15 2018
area of accumulating snow is lifting north this morning with a
quick one to two inches expected across the southern and central
zones. Impacts to travel have been minor so far as most of the
well traveled roads are just wet. Some side roads could get a
coating of slush but icy roads are not expected through the
afternoon. Given the limited impacts and rapid movement of the
snow, we will handle this event with spss rather than a winter
weather advisory.

As the Sun GOES down and temperatures fall this evening, travel
could be impacted by icy roads, primarily across the northern
forecast area.

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 302 am est Thu nov 15 2018
the main issue today is the snow and how much we get. Most of the
model sounding suggest nearly all snow as there is no elevated
warm layer to melt the snow. However there is fairly deep
isentropic layer below 700 mb so the snowflakes will be rimed and
that will result in less accumulation than would otherwise happen.

There is a fairly impressive southern stream closed upper low,
centered over eastern missouri as I write this but it is getting
sheared out by a decent northern stream shortwave. It is the
shearing out of the system that will help limit the amount of
precipitation we get from this system. This will mean we see three
precipitation events. First is the deformation zone precipitation
moving northward this morning. That should nearly dissipate by
the time it reaches i-96 late this morning. However a deformation
band will redevelop from near grand rapids to clare by mid
afternoon. That will move out by evening but then the band of snow
with the northern stream system moves across the area after
midnight with more light snow. That snow or patchy drizzle will
come to a end by mid to late morning Friday
the end result will be an area of 1 to 2 inches of snow near i-94 then
a second area of 1 to 2 inches near grand rapids northeast to
near clare. Lesser amount will fall between i-94 and i-96. Less
than an inch of snow is expected overnight. There has been a
trend in the hrrr for the past 6 hours for the entire precipitation
shield to shift north with time. If that trend continues we may
have to increase snowfall amounts for today into this evening.

The jet entrance region of he same jet core that will result in
light snow tonight will result in another snow area Saturday. The
models have having major issues figuring out where that will end
up. The NAM has the core of it crossing southwest michigan, if
that happens we could see 3 to 5 inches of snow Saturday. Most of
the other models have it tracking southwest of michigan. So we
have high chance pops Saturday for now, that may well change
either way.

Beyond that we have a much stronger digging northern
stream jet core that if it get far enough south, we would see an
arctic blast of very cold air and snow showers in the Monday time
frame. For now just about all the models and their ensembles
keep that front just north of this area but that looks like a
very strong feature to me and I am not willing to write it off.

Once that feature moves through we may yet see split flow take
over and that would be just in time for thanksgiving. We could see
highs in the 40s by then if that happens.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1245 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
snow will bring areas of ifr this afternoon with ceilings lower
than 1000 feet agl persisting into this evening. Conditions will
improve as the snow and low clouds move off to the east after
midnight and again on Friday morning.

Marine
Issued at 302 am est Thu nov 15 2018
we have issued a small craft advisory from just before midnight
tonight till just before midnight Saturday. This is due to the
cold air following the system moving out of the area tonight.

Hydrology
Issued at 1239 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
no hydro concerns are present for the upcoming weekend while current
river levels continue to remain steady and or fall. Precipitation
concerns remain limited in the near term as amounts look light and
frozen. Still no concerns for ice jams as river temperatures remain
above freezing.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 am est
Saturday for lmz844>849.

Update... Ostuno
synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Anh
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi41 min ENE 8 G 9.9 30°F 1016.1 hPa (-4.0)30°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi41 min E 7 G 8.9 31°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi31 min ESE 9.9 G 13 30°F 1018.2 hPa28°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi51 min E 12 G 14 33°F 45°F2 ft1017.3 hPa (-3.6)32°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi41 min Calm G 6 32°F 1016.9 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi48 minE 72.00 miLight Snow31°F26°F82%1017.8 hPa

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Last 24hrE5CalmCalmE5NE3E3E4SE6SE7E5E4E6SE9SE6E6E6E8E9E7E8E8E9E8E7
1 day agoNW12
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W8NW6NW6NW4NW7NW7NW8NW5NW6NW7NW6W5NW8NW6N33NE5NE4CalmCalm
2 days agoN5NE4NE3N4N5N5N6N5N7N6NE4N3CalmCalmS3Calm3N8N8N7N5N6CalmNW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.