Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:01 PM EDT (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 933 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ846 Expires:201806182115;;726935 FZUS53 KGRR 181333 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 933 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181559
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1159 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 325 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
a cold front pushing down from the north will bring showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight and usher in cooler
weather for the rest of the week.

Update
Issued at 1201 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
i did not make major changes to our on-going forecast. The
convection near the front has diminished. The core of low level
jet (50 to 60 kts) that supported the convection is moving off to
the east. This is seen nicely with recent radar trends. By noon
the core of the low level jet will be near bad axe so all of the
grr CWA will have strong speed divergence at low levels. Thus even
with mix layer capes in the 2000 j kg range and the precipitable
water values rising to near 2.3" the strong subsidence caused by
the speed divergence will strongly mitigate convective
development. That subsidence is shown well by the 700 to 300 mb
qvect convergence (early to mid afternoon shows divergence over
our cwa). So even with surface wind convergence on the front, I do
not expect to see much convection over our CWA through mid
afternoon.

However, I do expect some convection to impact our SW CWA from mid
afternoon into early this evening. There is a weak shortwave the
does allow from some dynamic lift (700-300 mb qvect
convergence weak 1000-850 moisture transport) into allegan and
van buren counties in the 3 pm till 8 pm time frame. Both the
namnest and the rap model show convection developing near and east
of mke 2-3 pm then moving SE into our SW counties as per above.

So,the SPC marginal risk does make sense. Downdraft capes are
near 500 j kg in that area late this afternoon. Overnight most if
not all of the convection will be south of our cwa.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 325 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
clouds and showers will be on the increase today as upper ridge
flattens and cold front sags south. Storms are not expected to be
organized or severe as deep layer shear is 20 to 25 knots.

We will have to watch for excessive rain amounts in areas where
storms train as the front is slow moving and precipitable water
values are around 2 inches late today and into tonight.

The rains should linger into Tuesday before the front continues to
move south into the ohio valley by Tuesday night. A sfc high
extending south from canada builds into lower michigan on
Wednesday bringing in drier and cooler air with dew points in the
comfortable 50s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 325 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
it appears that we will start out dry and mild at the beginning of
the long term on Wed night. We will transition to a more unsettled
pattern with occasional rain chances from Fri through the weekend.

We will see the front that will come through the area today, finally
be pushed far enough south by Wed night to allow pcpn chances to be
low enough to have a dry fcst. The front will be driven south by the
nw flow on the SW periphery of the upper low over canada. We will be
under more of a direct influence of the upper ridge that will be in
the wake of the upper low.

The better chances of rain will start on Friday, and will remain
possible through the weekend. What happens is that an upper low that
settles into the central plains by mid-week, will get kicked out by
another trough low diving into the rockies. The plains low has been
shown fairly consistently to move NE into mi. This system looks to
pick up some of the moisture that will be impacting tx from the
gulf, which will help with pcpn chcs.

The main upper low will move out by Sunday, however another short
wave coming in from the NW will interact with some of the left over
moisture to bring at least a small chance of rain for sun.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 743 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
vfr conditions expected this morning then areas of MVFR and brief
ifr is possible this afternoon into tonight as showers and
thunderstorms push across southern lower michigan.

Marine
Issued at 325 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
a cold front pushes south across lake michigan today and tonight
but winds should remain below 25 knots and waves below 4 feet.

Some areas of fog will be possible into Tuesday before drier air
moves in behind the cold front.

Hydrology
Issued at 1210 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
recent rain has resulted in a slight rise on a few rivers. With
river levels running near normal, no flooding is expected.

More rain is expected across the area Sunday night through Wednesday
night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop.

Very heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. This may
produce localized flooding.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for miz064>067-071>074.

Lm... None.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Ostuno
short term... Ostuno
long term... Njj
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... 63
marine... Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi44 min S 14 G 16 1013.6 hPa
45029 10 mi22 min SW 7.8 G 12 70°F 68°F2 ft65°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi32 min S 13 G 14 74°F
45168 27 mi32 min W 9.7 G 14 71°F 69°F2 ft1014.4 hPa66°F
45161 29 mi42 min S 7.8 G 9.7 2 ft
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi32 min SW 11 G 11 68°F 1013.6 hPa66°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi72 min SSW 12 G 14 65°F 59°F1 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.0)63°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi62 min SSW 12 G 15 78°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi69 minWSW 1510.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1014 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW14SW14SW11
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1 day agoN5W4SW6CalmE4E3SE3E3SE5SE4SE4SE3CalmS4S3CalmS4S3S5S5SW11SW10SW10SW11
2 days agoCalmE8S156N3E4S7S7S6S3SE5S3N12
G20
S4SW8SW8S9S44N6W8CalmSW9NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.