Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:27PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 2:21 PM EDT (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:00AMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming south around 5 knots late at night, then backing southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ846 Expires:201906252000;;058026 FZUS53 KGRR 251505 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-252000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, MI
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location: 42.79, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 251623
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1223 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 1210 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
- thunderstorms, possibly some strong this evening
- dry and warmer Wednesday
- a series of convective events Thu into Mon as storms top the
upper ridge to our west
- warmest week of the year so far this week

Update
Issued at 1210 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
i am concerned about the convective vort over iowa this morning.

I have seen more than once where these things over preform. The
timing for our area would be this evening. There mid level lapse
rates are around 6.5 degrees c kg this evening. The most unstable
cape is around 1,500 j kg and there is a fair amount of Sun for
destabilization. There is enough CAPE in the -10c to
-20c layer for some hail but SPC href hail forecast seems to say
no even so. Looking at the latest hi- res model output I get the
impression the system will start really developing just west of
chi around 3-4 pm than track east southeast across our southern
cwa in the 7 pm to 9 pm time frame. The greatest severe threat
seems to be west and southwest our the grr CWA early this
evening. I talked to SPC a few minutes ago and they intend to
focus the slight risk more over our southwest CWA instead of the
western CWA and the rest. Based on all of this I have increased
the pop to likely over our southern CWA for this evening.

Discussion (today through next Monday)
issued at 330 am edt Tue jun 25 2019
expect sunny, breezy, and less humid conditions today behind
exiting system, but progressive pattern aloft quickly sends
another convective threat our way late this afternoon and evening.

While coverage of storms should be limited, a few locally severe
wind gusts and hail are possible 21z-06z, particularly north and
west of grr.

Next shortwave in fast westerly flow aloft tracks across the lake
superior region tonight, dragging a weak frontal boundary through
lwr mi. Decent mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 c km lean into WRN lwr
mi this afternoon ahead of this boundary, as well as a quick
moisture return with h8 dew points surging to near 13c aided by a
strengthening swly low level jet which ramps up to 35-40 kts.

Expect widely scattered tstms with high cloud bases to develop late
in the afternoon and continue through the evening with mucapes
rising to 1500-2500 j kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts. Also a hint
in a few cams of potential linear convective feature dropping south
from NRN lwr mi mid evening. Storms should be mostly elevated with
instability rooted around 5000 ft. Steep mid level lapse rates
support a hail threat and the stronger winds at h8 with inverted v
look below support a strong gusty wind risk.

Dry pleasant day expected on Wednesday with sfc ridging in place,
then an interesting pattern supportive of frequent MCS activity
overhead or nearby develops for Thursday through Saturday. Warm
frontal boundary becomes draped across the area, with considerable
heat humidity building through the plains under amplifying upr
ridge. This puts lwr mi in typical summer "ring of fire" pattern
where several mcss may be traversing the region, riding along down
the east side of the upr ridge.

Models are in decent agreement that first such convective system
impacts the region Thursday or Thursday night, with timing location
of subsequent convective threats more difficult to nail down. Some
suggestion of the frontal boundary being shoved south of michigan
over the weekend (by Sunday) as upper trough digs south into new
england, with drier conditions arriving back-door style.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1224 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
currently skies are mostly clear across the area with southwest
winds of 10 to 20 knots. However it will not stay that way as a
convective complex over eastern iowa will cross the southern part
southwest michigan early this evening. Some of the thunderstorms
may have gusty winds and hail assoicated with them. At this point
it would seem if any of the TAF sites would impacted by these
storm, it would be the i-94 TAF sites. Given the uncertainty of
this I will have vcts at those TAF sites. Once the storms are
through skies should return to mostly clear and winds will be
lighter at the surface, more like 5 to 15 knots into Wednesday
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 1210 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
based on both web cams and buoy observations I have allowed the
small craft advisory and beach hazard to expire. The wind and
waves were greatest (from buoy obs) in the 3 am to 9 am time
frame). It does seem the winds will increase this afternoon over
our northern surf zones for a time but that will not be enough to
result in another small craft advisory. The winds look like they
will be lighter Wed into Fri so more than likely not need a sca
then either.

Hydrology
Issued at 1210 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
water from the heavy rains last week are moving through the river
systems. The vast majority of the rivers have crested and begun to
fall. The crest on the grand river is passing through the grand
rapids area today, with water levels now beginning to fall from ada
to comstock park. The river is hovering near flood stage in these
lower parts of the grand river, but is not expected to result
in significant flooding.

The next few days will provide a bit of relief as the threat of
widespread heavy rain is a bit lower. However, localized heavy rains
will be possible each of the next several days, and with soils
saturated all around west michigan, ponding water and overflowing
small streams can't be ruled out in a few isolated locations. All it
would take is a slow-moving thunderstorm or several thunderstorms
tracking over the same areas over the course of a few hours.

Heading into this weekend, the overall weather pattern remains
unchanged, and could feature rounds of thunderstorms every day or
two. While widespread river flooding is not expected, this
continuing wet pattern will make it hard for the rivers to drop even
to the average levels for this time of year.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Meade
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Amd
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 35 mi52 min S 14 G 16 64°F 67°F1011.6 hPa62°F
45029 39 mi22 min SSE 12 G 14 63°F 61°F2 ft1011.5 hPa (+0.3)58°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi42 min S 12 G 13 68°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 52 mi22 min S 15 G 17 65°F 1011 hPa (+0.0)61°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi82 min SSW 8.9 G 13 71°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI7 mi29 minSW 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F60°F54%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9S11
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1 day agoSE12
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2 days agoE9SE8SE7E6E10E6E4NE4E5E8E5E6E5SE3SE4E7E6E7SE8SE7SE6SE10SE13
G19
SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.