Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday August 17, 2017 2:15 PM CDT (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 4:34PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 107 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of showers through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:201708172200;;532100 FZUS53 KMKX 171807 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-172200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, WI
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location: 42.8, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 171813
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
113 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Update
Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon hours. A
rumble of thunder is possible in our east and over the lake where
some better CAPE still exists ahead of the cold front. Given the
low-level shear profile, a waterspout or two wouldn't be out of
the question over lake michigan, but have yet to see any direct
evidence of this occurring so far. Will continue to monitor.

Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy skies with gusty southwest to
west winds into this evening.

Aviation(18z tafs)
Mixture ofVFR MVFR CIGS should continue into tonight. A few lower
cigs are possible, especially north of mke and msn. Scattered
showers should taper off around sunset. Gusty SW winds will veer
westerly tonight, with gusts of 25 to perhaps 30 knots at times.

Low level wind shear is possible from this evening into early
tonight, and included this in the tafs. Ceilings should rise to
vfr levels by early tomorrow afternoon, with gusty W to NW winds
developing.

Prev discussion (issued 1140 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017)
update...

an occluding low pressure system will track from northwest
wisconsin towards lake superior by this evening. A surface cold
front was progressing through eastern portions of our area, with a
few showers out ahead of it. Dewpoints will gradually drop behind
the front this afternoon, but there will still be enough moisture
and instability within the cyclonic regime to continue shower
chances through the afternoon. A rumble of thunder is possible as
well. Gusty southwest winds will veer to westerly by this evening.

Look for cloudy skies tonight, with a slight chance for a shower.

Otherwise, windy conditions are expected due to strong pressure
rises resulting from the deep layer cyclone departing to our
northeast. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible this evening,
with gusts decreasing somewhat through the night. The winds will
remain more elevated near lake michigan through the late night
hours.

We'll see a bit more sunshine on Friday as low pressure pulls
away. Winds will become gusty during the day as the mixed layer
deepens and a lingering pressure gradient remains. A shortwave
trough and weak surface low will approach during the afternoon,
but any rain chances appear to hold back to our west through early
evening.

Marine...

small craft conditions are expected for the nearshore waters
through early Friday afternoon. Gusty southwest winds this morning
will veer westerly tonight, with frequent gusts to 25 knots
expected through early Friday afternoon. Initially high waves
north of port washington should shift more towards the open waters
later today as the winds turn more offshore. Mariners should
exercise caution.

Beaches...

a beach hazards statement remains in effect for sheboygan county
through this evening. There is still enough onshore component this
morning for high waves near the shore, but as winds shift later
this afternoon the highest waves will be pushed more towards the
open waters. The high swim risk for sheboygan county means that
swimming is not advised.

Prev discussion... (issued 629 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017)
update...

aviation(12z tafs)...

low ceilings early this morning are expected to rise to around
2000 feet above ground level in south central wisconsin by middle
to late morning.VFR category ceilings above 3000 feet are
forecast in southeast wisconsin by middle to late morning. MVFR
ceilings between 1000 and 2000 feet should gradually spread
across northern portions of the area during the afternoon into
tonight.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may affect far
eastern portions of the area for the next few hours. More of this
activity should develop later this morning into this afternoon.

Showers should taper off from southwest to northeast tonight. May
see briefly reduced visibility values and brief heavy rainfall
with any heavier showers or storms.

Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop by middle to late
morning, lingering into the afternoon. These winds will veer to
the west tonight. Gusts up to around 25 knots are expected at
times.

May see low level wind shear conditions develop this evening into
the overnight hours, with west northwest winds around 30 knots at
2000 feet above ground level. For now, left mention out of tafs,
due to low confidence of these winds reaching 40 knots at 2000
feet.

Prev discussion... (issued 351 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are in decent agreement with main 500 mb low shifting
northeastward across northern wisconsin into the upper peninsula
of michigan today. It then continues further to the northeast
tonight. One area of showers and a few thunderstorms should
continue to slide northeastward across the area early this
morning. This is in association with the low level jet nose
pointing into the area.

Mainly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are then
forecast for the rest of today, with differential cyclonic
vorticity advection with the passing 500 mb low. The showers
should gradually taper off tonight from southwest to northeast
across the area, as the 500 mb low moves away.

Humid conditions are expected today, until cold front pushes
through the area later this afternoon. Dry slot with 500 mb low
may try to bring in partial sunshine in the eastern portions of
the area for at time today. However, kept forecast mostly cloudy
given close proximity of 500 mb low and associated cloud shield.

Highs should not be much higher than current values in south
central wisconsin. Highs may reach the upper 70s in southeast
wisconsin, where warm sector airmass will reside the longest.

Pressure gradient will become tight today and tonight, along with
some low level mixing, allowing for gusty southwest winds today.

These winds will veer west tonight.

Long term...

Friday and Friday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

The surface low over northern michigan will continue to shift
east through the day. The lingering strong pressure gradient and
steep low level lapse rates will lead to gusty west winds through
midday, then diminishing winds in the afternoon.

A shortwave trough will track through the area Friday night and
bring a chance for scattered showers and storms to southern wi and
northern il. Moisture is questionable with this system.

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper trough should be east of southeast wi by Saturday
morning, so expecting a dry weekend with light winds and
increasing temps and humidity
Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A front will slowly sag southeast through wi Monday and Tuesday.

The ECMWF is faster with clearing southern wi than other models.It
looks like showers and storms should hold off until the
afternoon here. As long as there are not excessive clouds from
storms that would be over mn, ia or northern wi, there is hope for
a view of the eclipse in southern wi on Monday. Stay tuned.

Conditions will remain favorable for scattered storms through
Tuesday evening until that front gets south of the il border.

There could be some severe storms ahead of this front.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

low ceilings early this morning are expected to rise to around
2000 feet above ground level in south central wisconsin by middle
to late morning.VFR category ceilings above 3000 feet are
forecast in southeast wisconsin by middle to late morning. MVFR
ceilings between 1000 and 2000 feet should gradually spread
across most of the area during the afternoon into tonight.

Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms should spread northeast
across the area early this morning, with more scattered showers
and isolated storms later this morning into this afternoon.

Showers should taper off from southwest to northeast tonight. May
see briefly reduced visibility values and brief heavy rainfall
with any heavier showers or storms.

Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop by middle to late
morning, lingering into the afternoon. These winds will veer to
the west tonight. Gusts up to around 25 knots are expected at
times. May see low level wind shear conditions develop this
evening into the overnight hours, with west northwest winds
around 30 to 35 knots at 2000 feet above ground level.

Marine...

small craft advisory is in effect north of port washington, and
will go into effect at 18z today south of there. High waves of 3
to 5 feet are expected to linger north of port washington into
this morning, before winds shift offshore and push the high waves
further into the open waters.

Tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusty southwest winds
by midday, and will veer west tonight. Frequent gusts to 25 knots
are expected to linger into Friday morning. Thus, the small craft
advisory was extended until 18z Friday. Highest waves will remain
over the open waters of lake michigan.

Beaches...

a beach hazards statement is in effect for the beaches along lake
michigan in sheboygan county until 02z tonight. High waves are
expected to continue into this morning, before being pushed
further into the open waters by midday. This will bring a high
swim risk.

There are gusty southwest winds expected by midday, lingering
into this afternoon and veering west tonight. High waves will be
over the open waters, so the beach hazards statement may not be
needed for the afternoon and early evening.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm cdt this evening for wiz052.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt Friday for lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt Friday for lmz643.

Update... Spm
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Friday through Wednesday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi76 min SSW 12 G 17 80°F 1005.1 hPa (-1.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 17 mi26 min W 16 G 23 79°F
45013 21 mi97 min SW 14 G 18 77°F 71°F1005 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 31 mi36 min WSW 11 G 21 73°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 41 mi36 min WSW 16 G 24 81°F 1004.7 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 47 mi86 min SSW 14 G 16 73°F 72°F3 ft1005.8 hPa (-0.8)
45174 48 mi26 min SW 16 G 19 78°F 73°F2 ft68°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N7
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N8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI6 mi23 minSW 17 G 2410.00 miFair80°F70°F71%1004.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI11 mi24 minWSW 16 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F70°F71%1004.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi23 minWSW 18 G 2810.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy80°F66°F64%1004.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi31 minWSW 16 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F62°F65%1005.8 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI23 mi41 minWSW 10 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F65°F74%1006.1 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI23 mi31 minWSW 17 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F60°F54%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E8NE8E7E6SE4SE5SE7SE4S8----------SW9SW7S7S7SW10SW7SW9W7
G16
SW17
G24
1 day agoNE11NE10NE8NE8NE5NE5NE3NE6Calm--CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmNE4E6E7E5SE6E9E9
2 days agoSE7SE9S7SE6S5SE4S5CalmS4S3CalmCalmNW5NW3W4NW3CalmN5NE8E7NE8N12NE13NE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.