Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 12:15 AM   Moonset 8:31 AM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 106 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Rest of today - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog late in the afternoon. Scattered showers through the day. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Tonight - North wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the evening, then veering southeast after midnight becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Numerous showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Monday - South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering west late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 281840 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 140 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers today and tonight. Isolated to scattered storms this evening into the overnight but severe storms and any flooding is very unlikely.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday.

- Above normal temps likely Monday through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued 139 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Brisk nely winds near the lake has pushed the fog mainly into ne IL but the front will move back north this evening so fog redevelopment is likely. Otherwise occasional lgt showers and drizzle early this afternoon but heavier showers are expected to develop once again as a sly 40 kt LLJ moves into srn WI. Moist adiabatic lapse rates and very minimal elevated CAPE will greatly limit the storm threat through the afternoon.

For tnt the low over ern NE will move toward se MN while it occludes, which may prevent the warm front from lifting entirely into central WI. A n-s band of showers and storms is expected to develop ahead of the upper wave and large dry slot rotating around the upper low. This band of showers and storms should move newd into srn WI from 02-08Z, but lapse rates remain very poor with very minimal MUCAPE. The SVR storm threat is very marginal and near the IL border.

The cold front or occluded front will then pass Mon AM into the early afternoon, while the low pressure area tracks from se MN to wrn Lake Superior. Mild temps are still expected with the stronger cold advection holding off until the evening. a few lingering showers are possible especially along the front. Temps will drop into the lower to middle 40s by sunrise Tue.

Gehring

SHORT TERM
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today through Monday:

The cold conveyor behind the departed low pressure and the warm sector of an approaching low pressure over the central plains have created a stalled front, the exact position of which remains uncertain going into this afternoon. Some models take it as far north as a Racine to Madison line by this afternoon, while others keep it right on the WI / IL border, or even south of the border for eastern areas (near the refrigerating effect of Lake MI). Our latest temperature forecast places it along a Kenosha to Mineral Point WI line, with daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s north of the boundary and mid 60s south of it.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop near and north of the front today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially along and south of the warm front. HRRR ensemble mean MUCAPE holds around 500 j/kg near the warm front today, possibly surging over 1000 j/kg this afternoon into this evening as the stalled front begins a northward advance as a warm front. The warm front fully crosses the CWA tonight into early Monday morning, allowing one last chance for increased shower / thunderstorm coverage. Storm coverage is expected to decrease into Monday as a dry slot wraps into the low pressure, though some models indicate scattered to isolated redevelopment of showers / thunderstorms with lingering 850mb humidity.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

Dry weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday, as high pressure briefly moves through the area. Southerly winds Tuesday ahead of an approaching low will push temps back into the 70s most places, aside from cooler temps east as winds will likely turn onshore in the afternoon.

A trough will then likely swing through the area Tuesday evening/night, bringing a round of showers to southern Wisconsin.
There may be a few rumbles of thunder as well, given some weak elevated instability.

High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, with dry weather and mild temps in the 70s once again. A stronger low pressure system is then expected to gradually lift through the region Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly even lingering in the area into Friday per slower models solutions. Rounds of showers are likely (60%+) at times with this system, with some occasional thunder also possible. Models currently are showing the highest chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, as the warm sector pushes into or close to southern Wisconsin. Above normal temps are likely through Thursday, cooling back towards normal by the weekend.

DDV

AVIATION
Issued 139 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Cigs mostly below 1 kft today and tnt. Occasional showers will continue but also with some fog development. Some dense fog may occur near Lake MI. Farther inland, vsbys will trend downward to 1-3SM BR. A few storms may occur over far srn WI this evening into the overnight. Gusty nely winds to 25-30 kt near Lake MI today. Gusty swly winds over all of srn WI from late Mon AM through the afternoon. Cigs will rise to MVFR during mid to late Mon AM.

Gehring

MARINE
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Low pressure around 29.7 inches drifts northeastward through Quebec early this morning. Its cold front has already crossed two thirds of the lake, and will stall near the southern end of the lake today as the warm front of an approaching low pressure system collides with it. Thus, north to northeast winds are expected across the majority of Lake Michigan today, with the fastest winds (up to 30 kts) in central Lake Michigan. Expecting light and variable winds over the southern third of the lake (near the stalled front) and south winds at the far southern tip of the lake.

Modest east to southeast winds will then develop over all of the lake tonight as the stalled front moves north as a warm front. Brisk east winds, possibly reaching gale force, are expected over the northern tip of the lake late tonight into Monday morning. Breezy south winds will develop over the remainder of the lake on Monday.

Areas of fog may form over the lake today, especially the southern half. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected between now and Monday.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Monday.

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