Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 7:01 AM   Moonset 11:37 PM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 1106 Am Cdt Fri May 10 2024
Rest of today - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots veering west early in the morning. Rain showers through around midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering north late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday night - North wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest in the late evening and early morning, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 101457 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening. Small hail and gusty winds are expected, but widespread severe weather is unlikely.

- Additional shower/storm chances at times (50% or less) later Sunday into the middle of next week.

UPDATE
Issued 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

No major changes this morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the area from northwest to southeast between about 6 PM and 9 PM. Low freezing levels will favor small hail, with dry air and steep low level lapse rates likely resulting in some gusty winds. Couldn't totally rule out a few storms approaching severe limits for a very brief period of time, but the threat is not expected to be widespread or persistent.

Boxell

SHORT TERM
Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Today through Sunday night:

Shortwave ridging is expected today ahead of a strong digging shortwave trough currently over srn Manitoba. At the sfc, wly winds will develop after high pressure moves east by afternoon and a wave of low pressure moves into nrn WI. Low level warm advection and the arrival of a thermal ridge late in the day should support temps 65-70F.

The digging shortwave trough and cold front will provide well organized lift this evening. Although CAPE is very low, there is good agreement among CAMs and the HRRR of a line of showers with possibly embedded storms to move across srn WI. The line of showers should be fairly high based given large dewpoint depressions, which will contribute to the expected gusty winds along the line. At this time it is unlikely the wind gusts would reach severe strength.

Breezy northwest winds will then follow for Saturday as the low pressure area slowly moves across lower MI. Lingering cold air aloft may allow a few showers to develop over ern WI. High temps will range from the lower to middle 60s over ern WI to upper 60s over south central WI. Another high pressure area will shift across srn WI Sat evening followed by breezy swly winds for Sun.
Strong low pressure will move across Ontario on Sun but a weaker wave of low pressure will move into the nrn Great Lakes. Its cold front will then settle south into srn WI Sun nt and possibly stall. A few weak vorticity maximums may aid the lift along the front during this time with pcpn chances up to 40 percent.

Gehring

LONG TERM
Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Monday through Thursday:

Longwave troughing sloping from the Hudson Bay into the Atlantic and moisture streaming over the Canadian Rockies leads to several rounds of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, as well as near normal temperatures. A lingering cold front on Monday combined with a developing low pressure system in the southern Plains may lead to showers lifting northward into southern Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday, clearing Tuesday night. Modeling is in agreement with WAA and a break in precipitation on Wednesday, with a Canadian-origin shortwave phasing with another southern Plains low on Thursday and bringing the next chances for precipitation and some gustier conditions.
This time frame looks to be more favorable for thunderstorm development with surface WAA and a stronger frontal passage leading to increased lift and convective development. Ensembles indicate a small (approximately 10 percent) chance for CAPE values over 500 J/kg Thursday afternoon, with better chances for warming and increased instability going into next weekend.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light west winds are expected through the afternoon, with a lake breeze possible very near Lake Michigan. A cold front will move through the area this evening, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms through the area. Brief drops to MVFR and IFR are possible in and around any showers or storms, along with gusty winds and small hail. Behind this line, expect winds to take on a more northwesterly direction, with ceilings lifting and scattering out.

Boxell

MARINE
Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High pressure of 30.0 inches over northwest Wisconsin early this morning will move across Lake Michigan during the middle of the day. The light northerly winds this morning will back to southerly this afternoon. A wave of low pressure around 29.6 inches will then follow the high across northern Lake Michigan tonight then deepen slightly and slow down over northern lower Michigan on Saturday. It will also drag a cold front across the lake tonight.
Modest southerly winds will shift to northwest with the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. Another high pressure area will then move across the lake Saturday evening with south winds returning and becoming breezy after it passes for Sunday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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