Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salisbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:08PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 4:16PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will move across the waters Tuesday morong. Low pres from the ohio valley will approach the waters Wed and Thu...lifting across northern new england Thu night...then towards nova scotia Fri and Fri night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salisbury, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221406
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1006 am edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Cooler today. Some showers early this morning give way to a
lull from mid morning into at least early afternoon before more
widespread showers move in from the south later this afternoon
and evening. Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected
Tuesday. A coastal wave of low pressure may bring a period of
rain to the south coast Tue night into early wed. However by wed
afternoon a brief drying trend develops behind the departing
wave along with pleasant temperatures. However the risk of more
rain returns Thu and Fri as low pressure approaches. The holiday
weekend begins with dry weather but there could be a period of
showers Sunday or Monday. Temperatures look to be near
seasonable through the period.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
10 am update...

increased pops slightly for late am/midday based on radar
trends, to account for some lingering isolated/scattered showers
associated with lead short wave. Additional showers will be
possible later this afternoon/evening as a second short wave is
expected to cross our area, no changes in forecast for that
timeframe. Forecast temps look on track.

Early morning discussion follows...

==================================================================
modest upper lvl shortwave linked to warm frontal movement,
increased pwats around 1.25 inches and unorganized warm
advection is generating shra across the region this morning.

These will continue through about 8am (12z) until the wave moves
e of the region and allows for reinforced ridging and drying of
the lower lvls (which still have not completely recovered from
the low dwpts this past weekend).

Therefore, after this first round of wetting (although not
significant) rainfall, expecting a lull across the region
through the remainder of the morning hours as the synoptic
system reloads in favor of convection linked to the cold front
well S and a LLJ sliding up along S coastal locations by late
this afternoon and evening. Latest model runs support this,
showing much lower overall QPF totals, supported by a fairly dry
period in mesoscale model radar depictions through the day.

Therefore, have lowered pops widespread until mid-late
afternoon, then raised them from sw-ne into the evening. In
fact, it now appears bulk of the rainfall will be focused across
se ma/ri with lower totals further inland. This is along the
core of a modest LLJ around 30-40 kt which crosses the region
after 00z. Pwats not overly impressive either, with highest
(1.5+) remaining well to our s, and more closely associated with
convection off the mid-atlantic which is likely to usurp some of
the higher gulf moisture. Risk for TS is low, however noting
soundings supporting some modest conditional instability late
this evening/early overnight, so will continue a mention for an
isolated rumble of thunder.

Otherwise, although guidance shows upper lvl warm front lifting
across the region in advance of the weakened cold frontal
passage tonight, am concerned sfc warm front may struggle, as it
typically does through spring. Will be capping highs mainly in
the mid-upper 50s given that even with a break in showers, skies
should remain mostly cloudy through the day, with S to SE winds
carrying cooler onshore flow.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Tonight...

banded precipitation becomes more closely focused on a weakening
cold frontal passage through the late evening and early
overnight hours. Highest theta-e plume, along with modest
conditional instability becomes focused along the sly LLJ mainly
across SE ma and extreme SE ri. Will be focusing pops there.

Also final QPF totals above 0.5 inches (including any rainfall
today) will be focused on this area as well as precip is likely
to end across the interior late this evening.

Therefore, expect gradual improvement thanks to reinforced
subsidence from nw-se through the overnight hours such that
precip should be ending even over the islands between 10z and
12z tomorrow morning. Some clearing inland is likely as well.

The one fly in the ointment here, will be that as winds shift to
the w-nw through the column and the subsidence inversion
develops, there is still plenty of low-lvl trapped moisture
especially areas E of the worcester hills. This should leave,
even as rainfall ends. Fog and low clouds in its wake. May even
need to watch for some patchy dense fog in areas as precip ends.

Temps will be tricky thanks to the risk for clearing in the far
nw interior. Some cooling there could allow temps to drop back
into the 40s while areas further E remain in the mid to upper
50s with the low lvl moisture remaining in tact.

Tue...

continued improvement through the morning thanks to reinforced
high pres building in from the nw. Most locations should see at
least a bit of sunshine through the day. The one caveat will be
s coastal locations as cold front will be settling to the S and
a secondary shortwave suggests the development of a coastal wave
off the mid-atlantic. At the very least, this will reinforce
cloudiness across the s, limiting the sunshine and warming.

However, worst case scenario if the wave is strong enough it
will bring another round of light-mod rainfall mainly across the
immediate S coast/cape/islands by late afternoon. Latest trends
suggest a lower risk for this, as ecmwf, which was the most
robust has backed down somewhat on its QPF across the land.

Something to watch over the next 24 hours or so as mesoscale
guidance better captures this feature.

Otherwise, a much nicer day as h85 temps should remain averaging
+9c through the day. Inland areas that see the most Sun will see
highs in the low-mid 70s. Coastal areas will be cooler due to
sea breezes, but as mentioned above, the increased risk for
clouds will limit S coastal locations even more.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
Highlights...

* dry and seasonable Wednesday afternoon
* showers likely Thu and fri
* holiday weekend likely begins dry and seasonable
Tuesday night...

deterministic and ensemble guidance beginning to coverage on
next chance of rain Tue night into Wed morning across ct/ri and
southeast ma especially the immediate south coast and islands,
as next mid level wave approaches and spawns weak cyclogenesis
just south of new england. Remainder of the region especially
along and north of the ma pike likely remains dry. However these
small scale frontal waves can be tricky on the exact track of
its precip shield.

Wednesday...

could be the pick of the week as any lingering rain early over
southeast ma scoots out to sea with good subsidence on backside of
departing wave. This should support at least partial sunshine during
the afternoon along with seasonable temps, mid 70s ct river valley
to 60-65 across eastern ma coastline due to light onshore flow.

Thu & fri...

mid level trough and broad area of low pressure approach the region
from the southwest. Parent low over the eastern lakes gives way to
secondary low pres along the south coast of new england fri. This
setup will support periods of rain regionwide & cool onshore winds
for eastern ma.

Holiday weekend...

rising heights and increasing anticyclonic flow will yield dry and
pleasant weather Saturday. Models then differ on timing of next
upstream trough with ensembles leaning toward Monday and gfs/ec more
toward sat. Given the time range leaned toward the ensembles.

Temps looks seasonable with highs in the 70s.

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...

10 am update...

through today... Moderate confidence, mainly due to some
uncertainty in timing. MainlyVFR through midday today, with
isolated to scattered showers mainly affecting orh/bed/bos and
vicinity. Then, afternoon into evening CIGS gradually drop
through MVFR to ifr, along with more widespread shra/ra after
18z. Winds remain mainly s, although with slight SE shift
possible. Minor llws possible mainly across the S coast late
this afternoon/evening.

Overnight... Moderate confidence.

Ifr/MVFR with low cigs/fog/shra mainly S and E of a line from
hfd-orh-psm, meanwhile some improvement is possible N and W of
this line especially during the early morning hours. Otherwise a
damp night. Some s-sw winds gust 20-25 kt mainly cape/islands.

Otherwise, winds shift to the NW by sunrise tue.

Tue... Moderate confidence.

Improvement toVFR everywhere during the morning. Winds begin
out of the n-nw then back again to the S by late evening. Sea
breezes expected on coastlines. Will need to watch another weak
low pressure system south of the region which could maintain
wet weather and lower categories mainly for SE ma/ri terminals.

Right now will feature mainly an improvement all locations.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in
exact timing for the lower categories this afternoon which may
be off by a couple of hours. On and off light showers between 10
am and noon, with additional showers probable later this
afternoon and evening.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in
exact timing for the lower categories this afternoon which may
be off by a couple of hours. A few showers between 10 and 11 am may
lead to wet runways, but should be short lived. Additional
showers probable late this afternoon and evening.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

moderate forecast confidence this period.

Tue night...VFR except MVFR possible south coast in risk of showers.

Wed...VFR except period of MVFR showers possible early over
southeast ma.

Thu & fri... MVFR and/or ifr in periods of rain.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...

late this morning into tonight... High confidence. Mainly quiet
to start although with isolated to scattered showers over the
waters. By afternoon, more widespread rainfall will combine
with stronger southerly winds reaching around 25 kt, which will
linger into the overnight hours. While seas should generally
remain at or below 5 ft, will be issuing a small craft advisory
for these winds beginning late this afternoon and continuing
until the winds shift to the w-nw early tomorrow morning. These
will mainly be fore the open waters, rather than the sheltered
bays/sounds. Fog/showers will reduce visibility mainly late this
afternoon through the overnight.

Tomorrow... High confidence.

Improvement across the waters expected. Winds and seas will
remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Winds will be
shifting from the w, back to the S by late in the day.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

weak wave of low pres tracks just south of new england Tue night and
wed morning. Then a stronger low may pass just south of the coast
fri. Could be a brief burst of wnw winds up to 30 kt Fri night as
storm intensifies over gulf of maine Fri night.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Tuesday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Tuesday for anz235-237-256.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Tuesday for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Tuesday for anz254-255.

Synopsis... Nocera/doody
near term... Nocera/doody/nmb
short term... Doody
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera/doody/nmb
marine... Nocera/doody/nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 15 mi98 min S 14 G 15 52°F 1021.8 hPa (-1.0)40°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi113 min SSE 1.9 56°F 1023 hPa46°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi94 min SSW 14 G 18 52°F 54°F2 ft1021.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 33 mi108 min S 7.8 G 14 52°F 53°F1 ft1021.7 hPa (-0.6)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi94 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 53°F1 ft1021.7 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 34 mi62 min 50°F 55°F1021.6 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi62 min 51°F1 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 38 mi62 min SSE 8 G 11 53°F 51°F1021.7 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 39 mi98 min SSE 2.9 56°F 48°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA17 mi44 minVar 310.00 miOvercast51°F45°F80%1022.1 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA17 mi45 minSSE 75.00 miOvercast with Haze51°F44°F77%1020.9 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH19 mi1.7 hrsSSE 910.00 miOvercast55°F43°F64%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10SE10SE9SE11SE8SE6SE6SE5SE8S7SW7SW7SW4SW4SW3CalmS3CalmS3S6S5S6S9SE7
1 day agoSE10SE9SE10SE9SE7SE9S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmN63NE55SE6SE10SE10SE11
2 days agoW14
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NE11E106E7SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Merrimack River Entrance, Massachusetts
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Merrimack River Entrance
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Mon -- 02:42 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:47 AM EDT     8.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     9.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.81.80.60.41.22.84.978.38.67.96.44.32.20.70.10.624.26.68.49.397.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:18 PM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.3-1-0.60.31.11.41.51.50.9-0.2-1.1-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.10.91.51.61.81.40.3-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.