Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salisbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 6:52 PM EDT (22:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 323 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 323 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure slides south of new england tonight. A warm front moves across central new england Thu with increasing sw winds across the waters. This results in a prolong period of ssw winds across the waters into the weekend along with the risk of showers and Thunderstorms Thu night and again Sunday. A frontal system will move across the waters Monday night with high pressure over the waters on Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salisbury, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 282048
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
448 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure brings dry and cool conditions tonight. A warm
front moves through the region Thursday with a few showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night as more humid air moves in.

Summer heat and humidity arrives Fri and continues into the
weekend. A cold front likely breaks the heat and humidity later
Sunday and will be accompanied by thunderstorms. Not as warm or
humid early next week including the fourth of july holiday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Sct showers developing across northern new eng and moving se.

Marginal instability and ki increasing to near 30 along with
approaching left exit region of upper jet will bring a risk of
a few showers or an isold t-storm this afternoon.

Dry weather tonight with high pres south of new eng. Weak
shortwave will spread some mid high clouds into new eng with
clouds increasing later tonight. Another cool night with dry
airmass in place and light winds. Lows in the 50s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday...

warm front lifts north across sne to near the ma nh border late
in the day. No instability across sne and main focus for showers
will be to the north assocd with deeper moisture and mid level
omega north of the warm front along with the nose of the 850 mb
jet. Can't rule out a few showers spilling into northern ma in
the afternoon but it should be a mostly dry day. Most sunshine
will be found toward the south coast with most clouds north of
the pike. Rather gusty S SW winds developing in the afternoon
as the low level jet strengthens across sne. Gusts to 25-35 mph
expected, strongest in the coastal plain. Shallow mixing will
limit high temps to the upper 70s and lower 80s. While dewpoints
will be increasing, very humid air will remain to the west.

Expect dewpoints increasing to 55-60.

Thursday night...

warm sector airmass in place. Increasing ki and elevated
instability as a piece of the low level jet shifts south into
sne will result in a few showers and isold t-storms moving
through. Milder night with lows remaining in the 60s as higher
theta-e air moves into the region with increasing dewpoints.

This may lead to fog patches developing overnight.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* hot and humid conditions return Friday and continue into
Sunday
* increasing risk for scattered showers thunder Friday into
Sunday
* cooler and less humid Monday and Tuesday
overview...

12z model suite over the medium range period continues to
feature nearly zonal northern stream mid level flow, which keeps
systems moving along into this weekend. The big question
continues to be the timing of the approaching cold front out of
south central canada and the great lakes, pushing far enough s
to bring cooler, drier conditions.

With each run, models continue to keep the front further N and W of
the region. Could see enough instability for diurnal convection to
develop across the interior Fri into sat, while tending to be drier
closer to the coast as some residual subsidence building NW across
coastal areas from the e-w elongated high pressure from va nc to the
western atlantic.

By late this weekend, models continue to dig h5 trough over the
western great lakes northern plains states, with responding mid
level flow becomes more SW across the northeast u.S. All short
range models signaling a short wave in the h5 flow moving
steadily SE Sun sun night, which will allow the pre-frontal
trough to move slowly SE late Sat into sun. Models in fair
agreement on timing of this feature, pushing off the S coast
Sunday morning. Trailing cold front follows Sun night-early mon,
then tends to stall along the NW periphery of the bermuda high,
while another h5 short wave moves e. Timing issues come into
play with this feature, as well as placement of the stalled
front and subsequent potential for precip during the 4th of july
holiday into wed.

Leaned toward a blend of available model guidance as well as
ensemble means through around 12z mon, then transitioned to
ensemble means beyond this due to the timing and placement
systems amongst the individual models.

Details...

Friday-Friday night...

expect very warm temps and high humidities during this
timeframe. Dewpts rise to the mid-upper 60s with a few spots
briefly touching 70 during the afternoon evening hours. As
approaching pre-frontal trough slows in the parallel SW wind
flow aloft, will see scattered showers thunderstorms mainly from
cape ann across to central and W mass into N central ct fri
afternoon evening, then orienting w-e Fri night, running from
about the mass pike northward.

Could see some heavier downpours with some thunderstorms across
the interior Fri afternoon evening as signaled by both the gfs
and ggem. Capes are in the 1000-1200 j kg range, along with k
indices in the lower-mid 30s into Fri evening. However, may see
some capping as h85 temps rise to +16c to +18c. H5 heights
slowly rise during the day as well, up to 5820-5840 m by around
00z sat, which could also limit the potential for stronger
storms.

Expect Friday's highs in the mid-upper 80s away from the s
coast, a bit cooler along the S coast and the higher inland
terrain. Can not rule out a few spots reaching 90.

Saturday-Sunday...

best instability lift associated with the pre-frontal trough
moves across the region during this timeframe. Have likely pops
with this feature. Have mentioned scattered thunderstorms as
well. Also noted slis below zero, k indices in the lower 30s and
tq values up to 20 as this feature passes. Can not rule out
some gusty SW winds with some of the storms as well.

Signal from the 12z ggem that there could be some heavier
rainfall as the trough moves across late Sat into Sat night,
especially across NE ct ri SE mass. Noting pwats up to 1.8 to 2
inches overnight Sat night, so could see some downpours that may
cause local street and poor drainage flooding.

Another aspect will be the very sultry conditions with dewpts
in the 65-70 degree range. A few spots may see heat indices in
the lower 90s during Sat afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday...

trailing cold front moves across Sun night, moving near or just
s of the south coast Mon morning. Any leftover showers
thunderstorms should push offshore by around midnight or so sun
night, but could linger across the CAPE and islands into early
mon morning. Will also see some patchy fog develop as higher
dewpts linger there.

Winds shift to light W Sun night, except SW at around 5-10 kt
along the S coast. This will delay the drier air from moving in
until Monday. Dewpts drop back to the mid-upper 50s across the
interior Monday, but linger in the lower-mid 60s along the s
coast.

Skies will become partly cloudy from nw-se Sun night, but
clouds may linger across the outer CAPE and nantucket closer to
the stalling front into Monday.

Monday night through Wednesday... Low confidence.

Flat h5 trough across the NE u.S. Looks to lift into northern
new england and quebec. For now, have forecasted mainly dry
conditions Mon night and tue, even as front stalls close to or s
of the south coast. A weak wave may move along this front
sometime late Tue through wed, but quite a bit of spread amongst
the model guidance. Did mention chance pops for this period, as
suggested by blended guidance.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Through 00z...VFR with sct-bkn CIGS 050-070. Low risk for an
isold shower or t-storm across northern ma.

Tonight...VFR. Light winds.

Thursday...VFR. Low risk for a few afternoon showers north of
the mass pike. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 20-30 kt
developing, strongest in the coastal plain.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. But a few showers t-storms
expected to move through with brief lower conditions. Gusty sw
winds coastal plain in the evening.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday through Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Patchy late night early morning fog each day. Otherwise mainly
vfr, except local ifr in scattered showers thunderstorms, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours through the period. A
few storms may be strong, with gusty winds. SW winds through the
period with gusts around 20 kt, highest along the S coast.

Sunday-Sunday night... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR. Periods of MVFR-ifr conditions in scattered
shra tsra Sunday into Sunday evening. Patchy late night and
early morning fog with local ifr CIGS vsbys. Winds shift to s-sw
Sunday to W Sunday night from n-s.

Monday... Low to moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR. May see isolated showers move into N central and w
mass Mon afternoon evening. Winds back to SW again across ri e
mass Mon afternoon.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... Quiet boating weather with high pres south of new eng
yielding light winds and seas.

Thursday... Increasing S SW flow as low level jet develops.

Enough mixing to support gusts to 25-30 kt in the afternoon over
nearshore south coastal waters and particularly narragansett
bay and boston harbor. Less wind over outer waters due to low
level inversion. SCA issued for south coastal waters and boston
harbor.

Thursday night... Low level jet remains across the region
resulting in SCA SW gusts and building seas.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday... Moderate confidence.

Small craft advisories will likely be needed. SW winds gusting
up to 25-30 kt likely, especially across the waters E of cape
cod and southern waters. Seas up to 6-8 feet, highest on the
southern outer waters, but may start subsiding Fri night.

Saturday and Sunday... Moderate confidence.

Sw winds continue, gusting up to 25-30 kt on the southern outer
waters. Seas lingering at around 5 ft, but should subside
during Sat night into sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some with reduced visibilities and strong gusty winds especially
on Sunday. Patchy late night early morning fog with reduced
visibilities.

Sunday night and Monday... Moderate confidence.

Winds briefly shift to W Sunday night into Monday morning, but
back to s-sw again by midday Monday. Seas up to 4 ft on the
outer waters. Leftover showers thunderstorms linger across the
southern waters along with patchy late night early morning fog
reducing visibilities.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 8 am edt Friday for
anz231>235-237-255-256.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm Thursday to 2 am edt Friday for
anz230.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 4 am edt Friday for
anz236.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 15 mi53 min WNW 13 G 13 73°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.0)45°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi68 min W 2.9 75°F 1017 hPa52°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi109 min S 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 63°F1 ft1015 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 33 mi63 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 64°F1 ft1016.1 hPa (-0.7)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi109 min WSW 3.9 G 16 62°F 57°F1 ft1015.2 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 34 mi53 min 76°F 1015.3 hPa (-0.5)
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi47 min 58°F1 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 38 mi53 min WNW 9.9 G 16 74°F 52°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 39 mi53 min W 4.1 75°F 53°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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N2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA17 mi59 minW 11 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F48°F37%1016.8 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA17 mi60 minWNW 910.00 miFair76°F50°F40%1015.5 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH19 mi1.9 hrsW 1310.00 miA Few Clouds75°F47°F37%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS55NW10
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CalmS3S5SW4SW53CalmS3SW4W6W6W10W10
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W6NW10W12W7NW10
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1 day agoW4NW12
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CalmW4NW6CalmS44W4S3CalmSE3W3SW3SW6SW6W7SE3S55W6S7
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CalmSE6
2 days agoSW7SW9S4W8
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S4SW4SW5W6SW5SW4S5W6W6W7NW9NW11W10
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5NW7SW8W6

Tide / Current Tables for Merrimack River Entrance, Massachusetts
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Merrimack River Entrance
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Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT     9.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:41 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:55 PM EDT     8.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:01 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.67.199.99.58.15.73.10.8-0.6-0.80.22.24.778.58.98.36.74.52.30.80.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:39 AM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:10 PM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:04 PM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.61.71-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.40.61.11.51.81.50.5-0.4-1-1.2-1.2-1.1-0.70.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.