Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salisbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:42PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:35 AM EST (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:37AMMoonset 8:17PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 406 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday evening...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 406 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres will build S of the waters this weekend. Low pres will pass well W of the region late Monday, but its associated front will likely bring periods of rain and gusty southerly winds. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salisbury, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191000
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
500 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
Dry and seasonably cold conditions today, then a warming trend
this weekend with continued dry weather. A storm system will
bring the potential for heavy rain and strong coastal winds late
Monday night into Tuesday, but there is a risk of some wintry
mix ice across the interior late Monday and Monday night.

Blustery, dry and seasonably cold weather will follow Wednesday
and Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low clouds continue to linger across CAPE cod as seen on latest
goes-16 nighttime microphysics composite satellite imagery,
along with some lower clouds across portions of the ct valley
into the berkshires. Also seeing some mid and high clouds
passing across the lower ct valley into central and E mass at
09z.

Line of precip moving across eastern vt into nh, and continues
to shift E on the latest NE regional 88d radar. May see a few
spotty snow showers along the ma nh border through around 12z or
so as the h5 short wave moves off the maine coast and into the
gulf of maine by mid morning.

Will see some breaks in the clouds across most areas through
around midday, then some more clouds will approach from the w
during the afternoon, with more clouds across NW mass and the e
slopes of the berkshires.

Noting some decent low level mixing up to h925 with some gusts
up to 20-25 kt from about midday onward. Also see a 35 kt h85
jet moving across the waters later this afternoon. Will likely
see gusts up to 25-30 kt developing especially across the
southern waters. Have posted small crafts there.

Expect temps to top off in the 30s, mildest across areas S of
the mass pike.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

expect a general W wind flow in place as large high pressure
moves off the mid atlantic and carolina coast.

As winds become mainly zonal across the region, low level wind
data indicating a 35-40 kt jet up to h9 which increases to 45-50
kt by around 12z sat. However, some question on the low level
lapse rates and whether it will mix down. Noting very good low
level lapse rates at h95 especially across the southern waters
after 06z sat. Looks like will see a good gradient in place
which will drive the W winds, which will become gusty along the
immediate coast and especially across the waters after
midnight. Better shot will be across the waters.

Temps will fall to the mid 20s to around 30 early tonight, then
will level off or even rise a bit after midnight on w-sw winds
which will gust up to around 20-25 kt along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands.

Saturday...

still noting strong low level jet crossing the immediate coast
and across the coastal waters during sat, upwards to 45-50 kt
which could mix down with the good low level gradient in place.

Will see westerly wind gusts up to 20-25 kt across the higher
inland terrain, and up to 25-35 kt along the S coast, CAPE cod
and the islands. May need wind advisories for portions of the s
coast.

Another weak h5 short wave moves across northern new england.

Not expecting any precip with it, but could see mid and high
clouds cross central and northern mass during the day. Good warm
air advection sets up, with h85 temps up to +5c to +7c across
central and southern areas Sat morning on w-sw winds, though
cooler air may work southward during the afternoon as h85 temps
fall.

Have forecasted highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
lower ct valley to the coastal plain, but will be a bit cooler
along the S coast with the gusty winds off the colder waters as
well as over the higher inland terrain.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
230 am update...

highlights...

* dry and mild Sunday
* risk of some wintry mix ice in the interior late Mon mon night
* a period of heavy rain and strong coastal winds likely late mon
night into tue
* blustery and seasonably cold Wed thu
Sunday...

less wind Sunday with NW flow but continued mild with temps in the
40s across much of the region. Expect mostly sunny skies as axis of
mid high level moisture across northern new eng. Turning colder sun
night as cold front drops south across the region with strong high
pres building across canada and ridging nosing down into new eng.

Monday into Tuesday...

developing warm advection pattern ahead of warm front will lead
to some light precip developing Mon afternoon and more likely
mon night. With high pres to the N NE and good cold air damming
signature, thermal profiles should be cold enough for some
light snow mix ice in the interior with minor accum possible. A
brief mix is also possible at the onset in the coastal plain.

However, the main event will likely be late Mon night and especially
tue as potent mid level trough low lifts NE across the gt lakes.

Ptype mostly rain but ECMWF has low level cold air lingering into
tue morning across interior ma where some wintry mix ice may
continue before precip quickly changes to rain. Models indicate a
strong pre-frontal low level jet which will advect high pwat airmass
northward into new eng. Pwat and low level wind anomalies around
+2sd which suggest potential for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. As
previous forecaster noted, some convection also possible given steep
mid level lapse rates. However, system is progressive which should
limit excessive rainfall potential. Still, deterministic
gfs ECMWF ggem all indicate potential for 1"+ QPF and eps has
moderate probs of 1 inch rainfall. Temps may reach into the 50s in
the coastal plain with 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday and Thursday...

blustery and colder weather expected but dry conditions with nw
flow. GEFS and eps mean 850 mb temps around -8c Wed and -10c Thu so
near seasonable temps expected, perhaps a bit below normal thu.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Through 12z...VFR. May see spotty MVFR CIGS in a few locations
across the mid and outer CAPE as well as parts of N ct and the
mid and lower ct valley through 12z.

Today...VFR. Any leftover MVFR CIGS should improve by 14z. May
see some sct-bkn clouds at around 3500 ft at times around
midday.

Tonight and Saturday...VFR. W-sw winds increase late tonight
and Saturday morning. May see sustained winds up to 20-25 kt and
gusts up to 30-35 kt, with best chance along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands as well as the inland higher terrain.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR ifr possible. Chance ra,
chance sn in the afternoon.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Ra
likely. Chance sn, fzra, pl interior.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Winds have diminished briefly early this morning across the
waters so have ended small crafts through the morning.

Strong low level wind jets will cross the waters starting
around midday today through Saturday. With the w-sw winds in
place, will see winds increase especially late tonight and
Saturday.

Have issued small craft advisories from this afternoon through
around midnight tonight, which will transition to gale watches
for the outer waters as well as the southern bays and sounds
late tonight and Saturday. Could see gusts up to 35-40 kt in
the gale watch areas. Seas may build as high as 6-9 ft, highest
across the southern waters during Saturday.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
for anz232>235-237-250.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 8 am est Saturday for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 5 pm est Saturday for anz231.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 8 am est
Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am est
Saturday for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 7 pm est Saturday for anz251.

Gale watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
anz254.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 5 am est Saturday for
anz254.

Gale watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
anz255-256.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 3 am est Saturday for
anz255-256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Evt
short term... Evt
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 15 mi36 min W 11 G 13 25°F 1013.4 hPa (+0.7)20°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi111 min Calm 14°F 1014 hPa12°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi92 min 14 G 16 27°F 38°F2 ft1012.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 33 mi46 min W 16 G 19 28°F 41°F3 ft1013.9 hPa (+0.8)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 34 mi48 min 24°F 1013.6 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi60 min 44°F3 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 38 mi48 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 21°F 35°F1013.4 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 39 mi96 min WNW 1.9 20°F 15°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA17 mi42 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds23°F16°F74%1014.5 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA17 mi43 minW 410.00 miFair22°F16°F78%1013.9 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH19 mi40 minW 510.00 miOvercast20°F15°F82%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3W6NW8W8NW10NW9W12
G17
NW11NW7NW8NW3W4W3W3CalmSW3CalmSW3S4SW4SW5SW4SW5S5
1 day agoN3NE4N6N6N7N7N8N9N5NE6N5N4N5N3NW3NW3CalmW5W5CalmW5W7CalmW6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3Calm4SW6S8W6S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Merrimack River Entrance, Massachusetts
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Merrimack River Entrance
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Fri -- 12:42 AM EST     7.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:46 PM EST     8.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:11 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.77.97.25.73.82.110.81.53.15.27.28.58.786.54.42.30.6-00.31.53.55.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:48 AM EST     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:28 AM EST     1.45 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:36 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 PM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:17 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:51 PM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.4-0.5-1.1-1.2-1-0.8-0.40.41.11.31.41.40.6-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.3-1-0.700.91.31.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.