Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 6:42PM Thursday September 21, 2017 9:57 AM EDT (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:47AMMoonset 7:46PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 840 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Today..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 10 ft. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt, increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 12 ft.
Fri..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 10 ft, subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 840 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Tropical storm jose will become nearly stationary southeast of the waters over the next few days and slowly weaken. Mariners can expect the highest winds and heavier rain bands across the waters off the south coast through Friday morning. A ridge of high pressure may build over the waters for Sunday and Monday. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211103
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
703 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
Jose has stalled well southeast of nantucket and will slowly drift
toward the southwest the next few days. This will maintain
strong winds, rain and rough seas for a couple of days,
especially on CAPE cod and islands as well as the adjacent ocean
waters. Meanwhile clearing moves into western mass and
connecticut. High pressure builds in from the great lakes with
dry weather over the weekend, before a front brings a few
showers early next week.

Near term through tonight
7 am update...

low clouds extend from the central hills eastward, with some mid
and high clouds farther west. Radar shows one area of showers
rotating around jose has moved off to the southwest. Winds
gusting to 43 knots at nantucket and 25-35 knots in ri and
eastern mass.

Expect increasing wind east of the central hills as the
pressure gradient field expands around jose. Will be maintaining
wind and tropical headlines as is for the present. Temperatures
look reasonable, except a few spots around boston... Will nudge
max temps up a couple of degrees.

Previous discussion...

jose is about 150 miles southeast of nantucket with tropical storm
force winds extending 150-180 miles out from the center. Observed
winds at nantucket have reached this value with peak winds to 45
knots. Winds are less to the northwest. Radar shows some light
showers reaching CAPE cod and marthas vineyard, and somewhat heavier
showers reaching nantucket.

As jose drifts southwest, expect additional showers today for the
cape and islands... Primarily nantucket. The strong pressure gradient
will maintain strong winds along the coast with the strongest across
the CAPE and islands. Winds aloft suggest gusty winds across inland
new england, but more like 25-35 knots in interior ri and eastern
mass and less wind in western mass and ct. We have dropped the wind
advisory over interior ri and interior eastern mass, but maintained
it along the mass and ri coasts. Meanwhile, the tropical storm
warning will remain for CAPE cod and the islands.

While showers will continue on nantucket, some heavy, the amounts
will be spread out. This will reduce the likelihood of flooding.

We will drop the flash flood watch for nantucket with this package.

Meanwhile, the storm shifting southwest will spread clouds back into
our western areas, so we have indicated a trend for increasing
clouds but no showers.

Short term Friday
Jose offshore will trend weaker tonight and Friday. He will maintain
clouds and showers across CAPE cod and islands. But expect winds to
diminish during this period. There is a chance for a couple of
showers in ri and in mass east of worcester, although confidence for
this is low. Skies in western mass and ct will show partial
clearing. So expect a dry day for most of the region.

Winds may be strong enough to maintain the wind advisory for a few
hours, although confidence in this diminishes in the afternoon.

Upper wind and temperature profiles suggest gusts around 20 knots in
the west and 25 to 30 knots in the east off-cape. Gusts to 40 knots
still possible over CAPE cod and islands through at least the
morning.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* dry over weekend, some showers possible early next week
* monitor forecasts as maria heads through caribbean
building upper ridge from southern plains to great lakes will
ultimately push jose west and southwest while it gradually
weakens, loosening its grip on southern new england. We may
still see some cloudiness Sat and even sun, but N NE winds will
steadily subside by Sat morning.

Return to warmer weather expected Sun and Mon but a backdoor
front should sag close enough Tue Wed to bring clouds, cooler
temps and perhaps few showers as low pressure heads across
western great lakes.

Also need to monitor progress of hurricane maria over next few
days. Although ensembles and model consensus is to recurve
system offshore, its track will ultimately be affected by upper
ridge breaking down in response to trough moving east across
great lakes, so expect to see variability in operational model
runs until trough becomes better handled. Best advice is to
follow latest forecasts from the national hurricane center.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

today...

best conditions will be in western mass and hartford county ct,
generallyVFR. MVFR CIGS in the central hills and northeast mass.

And scattered MVFR vsbys in showers. Ifr CIGS and vsbys in SE mass,
especially CAPE and islands.

North-northeast winds continue with gusts to 20 knots west, and 30-
40 knots east... And gusts 40 to 50 knots CAPE cod and islands.

Tonight and Friday...

ceilings improve, but with MVFR conditions lingering over the cape
and islands as well as parts of eastern mass. Possibly some ifr on
the CAPE and islands. Nne winds linger, but diminish during Friday.

Gusts of 30-40 knots linger over CAPE cod and islands.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in
timing. Sustained nne winds increase to around 20 knots, and gusts
increase to 35-40 knots.

Kbdl taf... High confidence.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

high confidence.

Fri night and sat... MVFR ifr ceilings possible, ESP eastern ma.

Sun and mon...VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

today...

jose lingers well southeast of nantucket today, slowly drifting
southwest. Tropical storm force winds will linger over most of the
waters with gusts to 45 knots. Showers and some fog will continue,
especially across the southern waters, creating poor visibility at
times. Rough seas continue, with heights 10-20 feet on the outer
waters.

Tonight and Friday...

the waters will continue to be affected by tropical storm jose
passes southeast of the waters today, then lingers well offshore
through at least Thursday. This will allow strong winds to linger
over the waters through at least Thursday, with gusts of 35-45 knots
over most of the waters, with gusts 25-30 knots on narragansett bay
and mass bay boston harbor.

Building swells have already reached as high as 16 ft at buoy 44008
se of nantucket. Expect high swell will continue through
Thursday, especially over the waters with a southern exposure.

Showers and fog will also linger through Thursday, creating poor
vsbys. Jose. North to northeast
winds linger tonight, then diminish a little during Friday. Expect
tropical storm force winds tonight, and 30 to 40 knot winds Friday
as the pressure gradient diminishes. Seas continue rough tonight,
then subside a little Friday. Friday seas will still be 10-15 feet
on the outer waters.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

moderate confidence.

Strong N winds persist through Saturday morning, gusting as high
as 40kt on south coastal waters as jose drifts S and away from
southern new england. High pressure builds over waters Sunday
and Monday with lighter winds, but seas will take most of
weekend to subside on open south coastal waters.

Tides coastal flooding
High surf will continue into at least Saturday with the most
severe beach erosion along the east side of nantucket and the
outer CAPE ocean side from eastham to orleans to chatham.

Another area of significant beach erosion is expected to be the
south sides of nantucket and martha's vineyard due to the impact
of a persistent SE swell.

As far as coastal flooding, the area of greatest concern remains
the nantucket harbor area where we may experience a higher-end
minor or lower-end moderate event during high tide early this
afternoon and again late tonight. Minor coastal flooding may
linger for the Friday early afternoon high tide.

Elsewhere across CAPE cod, martha's vineyard, and the plymouth
county coastline, still expect areas of minor coastal flooding
for the late night and early afternoon high tide cycles through
at least tonight.

High surf advisory remains posted outside of the tropical storm
warning area through Friday. The advisory covers threats from
both high surf and dangerous rip currents. We may end up having
to extend the high surf advisory into at least part of the
weekend.

Swells from maria may re-increase the surf and associated rip
current risk across our ocean exposed south coast sometime
during the first half of next week.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Tropical storm warning for maz022>024.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for maz007-019-020.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Friday for maz019.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Friday for maz007-015-016-018>021.

Ri... Tropical storm warning for riz008.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for riz006-007.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Friday for riz005>007.

Marine... Tropical storm warning for anz231>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for anz230-236-251.

Synopsis... Wtb jwd
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Jwd
aviation... Wtb jwd
marine... Wtb jwd
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi58 min NNE 22 G 25 64°F 1016 hPa (+2.4)58°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi73 min NNE 4.1 67°F 1017 hPa59°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi114 min NNE 23 G 27 64°F 62°F9 ft1013.9 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi58 min 69°F 1014.3 hPa (+2.2)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi68 min NNE 27 G 31 64°F 60°F10 ft1013.8 hPa (+2.1)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi114 min NNE 18 G 21 64°F 60°F8 ft1016.6 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi82 min 62°F10 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi58 min NE 9.9 G 14 67°F 63°F1017.6 hPa (+2.3)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi118 min N 7 66°F 59°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi64 minNNE 1310.00 miFair70°F60°F71%1017 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi65 minNNE 14 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F59°F73%1015.3 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi2 hrsN 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F58°F73%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE4NE4NE5E3E4NE7E4NE10E6NE5E9NE6NE6NE6NE5NE5NE8NE7NE8NE6NE6NE7NE7NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Newburyport
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Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     8.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:12 PM EDT     8.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.58.98.36.94.92.80.8-0.4-0.50.83.35.97.98.78.47.35.53.51.5-0-0.60.22.35

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:58 AM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.2-0.7-1.3-1.4-1.4-1.2-0.50.51.11.61.91.70.7-0.3-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.3-0.900.81.31.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.