Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 29, 2017 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1016 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
This afternoon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front moves across central new england this afternoon with increasing sw winds across the waters. This results in a prolong period of ssw winds into the weekend along with the risk of showers and Thunderstorms tonight and again Sunday. A frontal system will move across the waters Monday night with high pressure over the waters on Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 291425
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1025 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Synopsis
A warm front moves through the region this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms possible across northern massachusetts
tonight, as more humid air moves in. Summer heat and humidity
arrives Fri and continues into the weekend. A cold front likely
breaks the heat and humidity later Sunday and will be
accompanied by thunderstorms. Not as warm or humid early next
week including the fourth of july holiday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1025 am update...

no major changes to the forecast this morning. Continued to
tweak rainfall chances based on the latest runs of the near-term
guidance, such as the hrrr and rap. Latest radar imagery continues
to show the greatest risk for measurable rainfall later today
should be more across northern new england. Agree with previous
forecast that most of what is showing up across southern new
england is mostly virga.

A warm front will continue to lift northward today. Showers
will ride along this front which will be near the ma nh border
so a few late morning early afternoon showers could impact
locations north of route 2. Overall, anticipate a mainly dry
day with more clouds than sunshine.

Previous discussion...

cirrus canopy continues to stream across southern new england in
response to WAA pattern ahead of great lakes trough. As warm front
approaches the region expect clouds to lower and thicken this
afternoon. Not expecting much if any precip with this feature as
best lift and deep layer moisture track into central new england.

Thus greatest risk for any showers today associated with warm
frontal boundary will be along the me nh border. So most of the
region remains dry today.

As low level jet moves across the area breezy conditions will
develop later this morning into the afternoon with SW winds 15-20 kt
gusting up to 25 mph.

Given the WAA pattern temps will be a few degs warmer than yesterday
with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Most sunshine (through mid-
high clouds) will be south across ct ri and southeast ma. Becoming
slightly more humid as well as dew pts climb into the upper 50s and
low 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Tonight...

warm front lifts north of the region with warm sector airmass
overspreading southern new england. Thus becoming more humid as dew
pts rising into the 60s. This will result in patchy fog.

Any possible MCS will track well north of the region as nose of h85-
7 jet tracks across northern new england. Thus best chance for any
showers t-storms would be across northern ma (including city of
boston) toward the nh border.

Remaining breezy across southeast ma in response to tight SW pgrad.

Given warm sector airmass a mild night with lows only in the mid to
upper 60s.

Friday...

subtropical ridge begins to build northward up the east coast with
height rises into southern new england. This will suppress
convective chances by providing a cap over the area. However can t
rule out a few storms across western ma ct especially across the
higher terrain. Nevertheless much of the region remain dry fri.

It's a warm airmass over the area Fri with good model agreement on
925 mb temps at +22c and +17c at 850 mb. This supports highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices will be higher as dew pts climb
into the mid to upper 60s. Fortunately there will be a bit of a sw
breeze with winds 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph across southeast
ma.

Beach forecast... Could be some rough surf at ocean beaches along the
south coast of ma and ri as persistent southwest winds today and fri
generate at least a moderate surf.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* hot and humid conditions continue for Saturday into Sunday
* scattered showers thunderstorms for the weekend
* cooler and less humid Monday and Tuesday
pattern details...

overall the deterministic models and their ensemble means have a
fair handing on the evolution of the synoptic pattern for the
period. However, there still remains the timing and strength
difference with each shortwave. Southern new england remains in
northerly stream as quasi-zonal flow become more amplified Friday
night into Saturday. This will result in a deeper trough over the
northern plains, and thus a building of the sub-tropical ridge over
the east coast. This ridge stalls an approaching cold front for the
weekend before pushing through on Sunday Monday. Pattern change
aloft for early next week as the region is more in the broad trough
keeping heat and humidity at bay. Guidance difference increases by
mid-week with the ec more amplified versus the progressive gfs.

Overall, trended towards a blend in the guidance unless otherwise
noted below.

Details...

Friday night...

lingering showers thunderstorms will come to an end during the
overnight hours. This is thanks to mid-level dry air pushing into
the area and building subtropical ridge. Still plenty of clouds will
keep overnight temps near 70f. Increase low level moisture and
higher dewpoint airmass will result in areas of fog, especially
across the south coast.

Saturday into Sunday...

subtropical ridge will remain just to our east with southwest flow
in place. Southern new england will remain in the warm sector for
the weekend with pwat values reaching near 2 inches. Plenty of
instability each day and moderate shear in place will help sustain
thunderstorm potential.

On Saturday, the eastern half of the region will remain dry as mid-
level rh values and k indicies remain low. However, across the
western half, appears that any storms that develop in ny will bleed
into western ma ct. Some of these may still be strong as they are
closer to a surface pre-frontal trough.

Showers and thunderstorms may linger through the overnight hours as
mid-level shortwave and surface cold front approaches the northeast.

This front will stall as it moves across sne thanks to the eastern
ridge on Sunday. As heights and temps aloft begin to fall,
convection may fire along this stalled front. Still some
uncertainty on location and timing but latest trends is bos-hfd and
points east. Cannot rule out a few strong severe storms as
instability values will be above 1000 j kg and shear values
increasing to 30 kts with deep layer moisture. Something to watch in
the coming days.

Temperatures during this period will be above average with high
temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints in the 70s may result
in heat indicies above 95f. Low prob of heat headlines.

Monday into Tuesday...

stalled front will push through on Monday as upper level trough will
move overhead. This will limit the heat and humidity keeping temps
seasonable, with highs in the mid 80s. Several shortwaves will move
through the flow during this period. While most of the period
remains dry, westerly unsettled flow with cold pool aloft may
trigger a few isolated showers.

Wednesday...

large spread in the guidance for this period. Trended towards wpc
with stalled boundary south of the region. Surface high pressure
from canada will move through the northwest flow and settle over
southern new england.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

1025 am update...

today...

vfr CIGS and vsbys continue with low risk of light showers late
in the day across northern ma to the nh border. SW winds
increase this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kt across ri and
southeast ma.

Tonight...

vfr and mainly dry across ct ri and southeast ma. Chance of
scattered showers and t-storms mainly across northern ma. MVFR
vsbys possible across the interior in patchy fog. Modest sw
winds 15-20kt likely along the south coast of ma ri.

Friday...

mainlyVFR with low risk of a few t-storms mainly across the
interior during the afternoon. Gusty SW winds continue 15-20 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Kbos terminal... High confidence. Mainly dry thru 00z with low
risk of a few showers t-storms thereafter.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night into Sunday... Moderate confidence. Early morning fog
each day. Otherwise mainlyVFR, except local ifr in possible strong
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through
the period. Southwest winds through the period with gusts near 20
kts.

Monday... Moderate confidence. Improving conditions toVFR with
westerly flow. A low risk for spot shower.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today...

increasing SW winds up to 25 kt late this afternoon across the
southern waters of ma ri. Strongest winds near shore. Mainly dry
weather along with good vsby.

Tonight...

sw winds 15-20 kt continue with highest speeds across the southern
coastal waters of ma and ri. Scattered showers and t-storms possible
over the northern ma waters. Vsby may lower to 1 mile or less in
areas of fog as humid airmass overspreads the waters.

Friday...

sw winds 20-30 kt across the southern waters. Strongest winds near
shore. Morning fog may reduce vsby 1-3 miles. Mainly dry with any t-
storms confined to the interior.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Saturday into Sunday... Sw winds continue, mainly 20 kts with
lingering seas. Scattered thunderstorms, some with reduced
visibilities and strong gusty winds especially on Sunday.

Monday... Westerly flow as cold front stalls over the waters. A spot
shower is possible, but overall improving wind and seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for anz231>237-255-
256.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Friday for anz230.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Belk nocera dunten
short term... Nocera
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk nocera dunten
marine... Nocera dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi53 min SW 9.9 G 9.9 65°F 1018.9 hPa (-0.3)55°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi68 min W 2.9 73°F 1020 hPa61°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi109 min SW 9.7 G 12 65°F 62°F1 ft1019 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi53 min 74°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.0)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi63 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 61°F1 ft1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi109 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 58°F 56°F1 ft1019 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi47 min 57°F1 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi53 min S 5.1 G 6 65°F 53°F1019 hPa (-0.5)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi53 min S 1 70°F 59°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi59 minWSW 410.00 miFair76°F57°F54%1020.1 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi60 minWSW 710.00 miFair76°F59°F56%1018.7 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi1.9 hrsSW 510.00 miOvercast68°F55°F63%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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W6NW10W12W7NW10
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NW4W4CalmS5S4S4S5S5S5CalmCalmSW6SW5SW3----W4
1 day agoSE3S55W6S7
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CalmW4NW6CalmS44W4S3CalmSE3W3SW3SW6SW6W7

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Newburyport
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Thu -- 04:20 AM EDT     8.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     8.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.13.25.87.88.88.67.664.12.10.5-0.4-0.21.33.76.17.78.27.86.75.23.51.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT     1.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:05 PM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.21.61.60.9-0.1-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.2-1-0.30.611.41.71.40.5-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-1.1-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.