Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:32 PM EDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:17AMMoonset 10:18PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 717 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.gale warning in effect from late Friday night through Saturday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of snow after midnight.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow and sleet. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Snow, rain and sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Snow likely.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. More unsettled weather is in the forecast for late Friday into Saturday. Low pressure tracks just southeast of new england bringing strong winds over the waters. High pressure Sunday into early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 310005
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
805 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
A late season winter storm will bring rain, ice and snow to the
region Friday into Saturday, with the primary impacts expected
north of the massachusetts turnpike where significant amounts of
wet snow and/or sleet are possible. High pressure brings dry
weather Sunday and Monday, followed by another approaching storm
on Tuesday.

Near term /until midnight tonight/
745 pm update...

high clouds already moving across the region, the leading edge
of moisture working over the ridge axis sitting across the
western new england at 23z. Light northerly winds noted across
the interior with SW winds up to 5-10 kt reported along the s
coast. Residual light sea breezes continue along the immediate e
coast, seen at both kbvy and kbos. These should kick out by 02z.

Becoming more e-ne or light/variable.

Noting low dewpts across the region at 23z, especially across
the interior with readings between 15 and 20, ranging to the
mid and upper 20s along the S coast. These should rise slowly
but steadily as low and mid level moisture works in overnight.

The high moisture is also seen on latest NE regional 88d radar,
extending from lake ontario into ct/sw ri. Noted -pl at kelz and
-ra at kelm, ksyr and kipt at 23z even with t/td spreads of 8 to
14 degrees.

Should start to see leading edge of precip work into the ct
valley around or after midnight, but should be light and spotty.

Kept similar timing to previous forecast, which looked pretty
good. Updated near term forecast to bring conditions current and
incorporated t/td trends into overnight forecast.

Temps were running several degrees warmer than forecast at 23z,
but expect readings to fall slowly especially as precip moves
in. Should see readings mainly in the 30s by midnight, and close
to freezing across the higher inland terrain.

Previous discussion...

dry weather will persist this evening, but clouds will be on
the increase from the west ahead of an approaching low pressure
system.

Short term /midnight tonight through Saturday/
Highlights...

* Friday morning rush hour may be impacted by snow/sleet across the
interior but the primary impact will likely be in the higher
terrain
* low confidence forecast Friday afternoon into Saturday with main
focus north of the ma turnpike with main concern snow vs. Sleet
details...

forecast confidence is quite low for a short term forecast, but will
go over the main issues into Saturday.

Part 1: Friday morning:
first things first, a burst of warm advection precipitation will
affect interior ma and northern ct early Fri am. A mixture of snow
and sleet will overspread this region roughly between midnight and 6
am. Precipitation may be mixed with rain in the lower elevations,
so probably not a big impact in that region although some slippery
spots are possible. However, across the higher terrain of northeast
ct and into portions of interior ma roads may be slippery for the
morning commute. Therefore, opted to post a winter weather advisory.

Meanwhile, across eastern ma and most of ri a mixture of light snow,
sleet and rain may develop Friday morning. However, core of low
level jet/forcing remains to the west so precipitation will be
light. Plus with temps above freezing very little impacts are
expected with just wet roads.

Part 2: Friday afternoon and night:
we may see a lull in the activity sometime later Friday morning into
the early afternoon. However, approaching vigorous closed upper
level low will be moving east from the mid atlantic states. This
will increase the forcing for ascent and expect precipitation
intensity to increase Friday afternoon and especially by fri
evening. At the same time, an area of mid level warmth in the 800 to
850 mb layer will be moving northward. The models are in
disagreement though in how far north this warmth will get. The nam
is the warmest suggesting very little snow even near the nh border
with mainly sleet and some freezing rain. On the other side of the
coin is the gfs, which produces isothermal soundings and heavy wet
snow even south of the ma turnpike. Based on the considerable model
uncertainty, we blended the ecmwf/rgem which seemed to be a
compromise.

Therefore, we think the threat for heavy snow will mainly be north
of the ma turnpike and especially across far north central and
northeast ma. There may be some marginal marine influence across
the immediate coast, but its quite cold in the 925 to 950 mb layer
so it is more of a question of how warm the 800 to 850 mb layer
gets. This will determine whether we see 6 to 12 inches of wet snow
or mainly a few inches of heavy sleet. There also may be some
freezing rain across the higher terrain, but that low level cold air
is pretty impressive so if the warm layer invades the region
probably more in the way of sleet. Ptype may change to all rain
along the northeast ma coast if marine influence eventually
wins out, but probably sleet or snow just inland.

Part 3: Saturday
much of the guidance has slowed the departure of the system with
closed well developed mid level low parked south of southern new
england and strong easterly inflow. This is particularly true across
eastern ma where trowel/comma head may result in heavy precipitation
into Sat afternoon. Any rain/sleet will probably change back to
snow Sat morning across some of the region especially in northeast
ma, which may continue moderate to heavy at times into the
afternoon.

Headlines and impacts...

overall confidence is quite low in any particular outcome.

Therefore, we continued the winter storm watch north of the ma pike
but expanded it into northeast ma including boston Fri afternoon
into Sat afternoon. Snow vs. Sleet will be the main story on
amounts which remain uncertain. If higher snow amounts are realized
down tree limbs and scattered power outages are possible given it
will be a wet snow. Highest risk for this will be near the nh
border.

While we did not bite on the GFS with the high snow amounts south of
the ma pike, we opted to issue a winter weather advisory for
northern ct/northwest ri and just south of boston. The Fri am rush
hour may be slippery across the higher terrain of the interior with
burst of warm advection precip. In addition, an extended period of
sleet is possible for a time later Friday into Friday evening before
a change to rain. May also be freezing rain across the highest
terrain, depending on specific thermal profiles but enough sleet
mixed in will probably keep ice accretion below one quarter of an
inch.

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/
Highlights...

* mainly dry but cool conditions Sat night through Sun night
* low pressure may bring periods of mixed precipitation across
portions of the interior Mon night into early tue
* as the low passes during tue, may see periods of heavy rain
along the S coast
* another period of unsettled conditions possible Wed night-thu
overview...

overall progressive pattern continues through most of the long
term period, though may briefly amplify early next week with a
period of dry but cool conditions. Beyond this, looks like there
will be two more weather systems bringing cool and unsettled
conditions.

12z model suite in general agreement with continued fast flow
aloft. May see upper level ridging slowing the progression down
a bit late Sunday and Monday, but this tends to break down as it
pushes slowly E early next week. Another notable feature during
this period will be the unseasonably cool temps, especially
during the daytime hours, though may be close to normal around
the middle of next week.

Confidence lowers with progression of two possible systems from
about the Mon night-tue and Thu timeframes, especially with the
fast steering flow aloft.

Details...

Saturday night... Moderate to high confidence.

Low pressure shifts E to the western atlc, so expect precip to
taper off by about midnight or so. H85 temps will gradually fall
back to -3c to -6c by daybreak Sunday.

There will be some leftover n-ne winds early Sat night across
coastal areas. Gusts will range from 25-30 kt, highest across
the outer CAPE and nantucket, then should diminish as gradient
lessens after midnight. Clouds will begin to clear across the
interior after midnight.

Expect overnight lows to bottom out in the mid 20s across the
higher inland terrain to the lower-mid 30s along the coast.

Sunday-Monday... Moderate to high confidence.

Upper level pattern becomes briefly amplified with long wave
ridging building from hudson bay to the SE u.S. Coast by Sunday
evening. Large n-s oriented surface high in tandem with the
upper system, so expect dry conditions during most if not all of
this timeframe.

Expect clouds to clear quickly on Sunday. NW winds will
continue, though will be light. This will keep cooler temps in
place, with highs mainly in the mid-upper 40s which is 5 to 10
degrees below seasonal normals.

With mostly clear skies and light/variable or calm winds,
should see good radiational cooling Sunday night. Lows will
range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, except some upper 30 readings
along the immediate S coast.

As the ridge works offshore during Monday, winds shift to e-se.

Clouds will increase, mainly across western areas during the
afternoon. Expect temps to top off in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Monday night and Tuesday... Moderate confidence.

High pres ridge moves off the new england coast Mon night, with
precip pushing NE with developing southern stream low pressure.

As this low pushes NE out of the southern appalachians,
associated h5 short wave slides E off the mid atlantic coast
around 00z wed, though some spread of timing and track amongst
the model and ensembles suite noted.

Will carry high end chance pops for now, with best shot along
the S coast. Looks like good tropical moisture plume moves N as
pwats increase to 0.9 to 1.2 inches by 12z Tuesday (highest
values along the S coast, CAPE cod and the islands). The 1.2
inch value is close to highest pwat value for the date on spc
sounding climo page. Along with e-se winds, QPF amounts for this
timeframe from 0.35 to 0.9 inches, highest across the higher
terrain with the upslope wind.

Have forecasted temps running 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
normals for early april due to thermal pattern and cooler
onshore flow.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Low confidence.

Overall general trends continue to be about average as
progressive upper pattern continues. Cutoff h5 low pressure
pushes out of the mid mississippi valley by mid week, with
developing surface low pushing across the great lakes late
wed/wed night. For now, leftover precip from first exiting
system should shift offshore Tue night, then will be mainly dry
on Wed as weak ridging builds across.

Models and ensembles signaling digging h5 long wave
trough/cutoff low across upper mississippi valley into the
great lakes during Wed as associated surface low develops by
wed evening. Widening model solutions on timing and track of
this low. Overall trend is to shift the low east in the w-sw
flow aloft. Have brought chance pops into western areas after
midnight Wed night, shifting eastward by Thu morning.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday/...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence.VFR though 05z-06z.

Should see spotty MVFR conditions in mixed -sn/-pl/-fzra moving
into ct valley by around 05z, spreading E through the remainder
of the night. Local MVFR-ifr CIGS may reach the ct valley from
06z-09z, reaching central areas by around 12z.

Friday into Saturday... Moderate confidence. MVFR to ifr
conditions will dominate in periods of rain/ice and snow.

Primary focus for the snow/sleet will be north of the ma pike,
but some sleet and freezing rain is possible south especially in
the high terrain. Northeast wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots
develop very late Fri night into Sat on the coastal plain and
perhaps a bit stronger for nantucket.

Kbos taf... High confidence inVFR through 10z with lower
confidence thereafter depending on arrival time of
precipitation.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF through 04z tonight. A
mixture of snow, sleet and rain should arrive after 6z.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/...

Saturday night... High confidence.

MVFR-ifr CIGS mainly across central and eastern areas sat
night, though should improve toVFR from w-e mainly around or
after midnight as precip pushes further offshore. N-ne winds
gusting to 25- 35 kt along the coast, highest across outer cape
cod and the islands through midnight, then should diminish as
they back to nw.

Sunday-Sunday night... High confidence.

ExpectVFR conditions Sunday-Sunday night. A few spots across
the higher inland terrain may see MVFR CIGS at times sun
afternoon/evening.

Monday-Tuesday... Low to moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs/vsbys likely in -ra. May see periods of -sn/-pl/-fzra
across central and N mass, mainly N of the mass pike after 06z
mon through mid morning Monday. Periods of ra/+ra during tue.

Precip should taper off Tue night.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday/... High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft thresholds
tonight into Friday morning.

Approaching low pressure will result in increasing winds/seas
late Friday and especially late Friday night into Saturday. Gale
force e-ne wind gusts are expected over the open waters. Warnings
have already been issued beginning later Friday night. Seas may
build to over 15 feet on Saturday with persistent northeast
winds.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/...

Saturday night... Moderate to confidence.

Expect n-ne winds gusting to 30-40 kt early, then will diminish
as they back to n-nw after midnight. Seas ranging up to 10-11
ft on the southern waters and 15-16 ft on the eastern waters
will subside overnight, but remain well above 5 ft. Gale
warnings continue through about midnight, then should lower to
small crafts. Local visibility restrictions in areas of rain
and snow, which will improve on portions of the southern waters
after midnight.

Sunday-Sunday night... High confidence.

Will see leftover NW gusts up to around 25 kt on the outer
waters early Sunday, then will diminish. Seas will continue to
subside, but will remain at or above 5 ft on the eastern outer
waters through Sunday night. Any visibility restrictions on the
eastern outer waters will improve by mid morning Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday... Low to moderate confidence.

Light NW winds on Mon will shift to e-se Mon night. Seas should
subside below 5 ft Mon morning. Good visibilities early Monday,
then will lower in developing light rain.

By Tuesday, e-ne winds increase, gusting to around 25 kt on the
southern outer waters. Seas build up to 6-8 ft, highest on the
southern outer waters Tue afternoon. Local reduced visibilities in
areas of light rain through the day.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 2 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter storm watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for maz007-014-015.

Winter weather advisory from 8 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for maz013-016.

Winter weather advisory from 2 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for maz009-011-012.

Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for maz002>006-008-010-026.

Ri... Winter weather advisory from 8 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for riz001.

Marine... Gale warning from 7 pm Friday to 9 pm edt Saturday for
anz232>235-237.

Gale warning from 4 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for anz231.

Gale warning from 4 am Saturday to midnight edt Saturday night
for anz250-251-254.

Gale warning from 7 pm Friday to midnight edt Saturday night
for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Frank/evt
near term... Frank/evt
short term... Frank
long term... Evt
aviation... Frank/evt
marine... Frank/evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi32 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 39°F 1020.9 hPa (+0.7)31°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi107 min SE 1.9 40°F 1021 hPa25°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi88 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 40°F3 ft1020 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi44 min 41°F 39°F1020.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi42 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 40°F 41°F3 ft1020.3 hPa (+0.5)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi88 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 39°F 39°F2 ft1019.8 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi26 min 40°F3 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi44 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 42°F1021 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi92 min S 4.1 38°F 30°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi38 minSE 410.00 miFair44°F21°F41%1021.2 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi39 minSSE 610.00 miFair39°F28°F65%1020.6 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi94 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F23°F55%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN5NE7N6N6N3N3NE7NE4NE4NE4CalmCalmE3CalmSE3E33NE7E4E4E5E3NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Newburyport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:43 AM EDT     9.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     -1.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:10 PM EDT     9.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.49.39.68.66.64.31.90-1-10.32.85.78.29.28.87.25.12.80.9-0.4-0.70.22.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:59 AM EDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:27 PM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:18 PM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.60.5-0.7-1.6-1.8-1.6-1.2-0.70.31.31.61.71.70.9-0.3-1.2-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.701.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.