Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:11PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:05 AM EST (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds S from quebec tonight into Thu. Expect ocean effect snow bands to develop under n/nw winds across the ern ma waters tonight. This high pres will shift E of the waters on Fri. A storm system will approach the waters from the sw Fri night and Sat, lifting slowly across the waters Sat night and Sun. High pressure builds back towards the waters from the west on Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 130753
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
253 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
Cold weather continues today with a period of light snow flurries
likely across interior S new england. Mild temperatures arrive Friday
and continue into early next week. Light to moderate rain possible
late Friday through Saturday evening, while an uncertain forecast
prevails thereafter with an offshore storm potential Sunday into
Sunday night concluding into Monday morning. Cold and dry thereafter
through Thursday with the possibility of a late-week storm system.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure will move SE across northern new england today,
and should reach a point just to our east by this evening. This
will maintain a potent subsidence inversion, especially across
the eastern half of southern new england. While this will
maintain dry conditions, it will not prevent higher level clouds
from arriving later today. There is a very low risk for a stray
flurry or two later this afternoon.

Farther west, we'll also have to contend with the arrival of a
weakening mid level shortwave, in addition to the increasing mid
level moisture. The trickiest part of the forecast here will be
the amount of lower level humidity, and whether it will become
deep enough to activate the snow growth layer. Model soundings
do suggest the possibility of some light snow late this morning,
and especially this afternoon. The area of greatest concern
remains west of i-91 in ma and ct, but cannot dismiss the idea
of more scattered snow showers as far east as the worcester
hills.

Snow accumulations still thought to be less than one inch, with
the greatest totals more likely towards the higher terrain of
the berkshires.

Given the colder start to the morning and increasing clouds,
high temperatures will be lower than yesterday, and 7-10 degrees
below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Once a mid level shortwave moves by our region, dry weather will
prevail across all of southern new england. Depending upon the
timing, there remains a low risk for a brief period of freezing
drizzle towards the end as the drier air invades the snow
growth region. Like the previous forecaster, do not have enough
confidence in this to include it in the forecast. Probability
favors a simple end to the snow showers flurries. Will need to
monitor this aspect of the forecast for this evening.

Friday still appears to be a transition day. High pressure off
the east coast of new england moves farther offshore. As it
does, winds will come from the south, starting our gradual
warmup. Expecting all of southern new england to be above
freezing by the time there is a risk for precipitation late in
the day across the western half of our region. High temperatures
should be near normal.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
* highlights...

- light to moderate rain possible around Saturday
- skirting offshore storm system Sunday - Sunday night
- cold and dry Monday through Thursday
- another storm system possible late week
* overview...

not much change with respect to the overview discussion below which
was published yesterday.

Broadly speaking, evaluating temperature along potential vorticity
surfaces (2 pvu), seemingly subtle eastward propagation of a rossby
wave train. Favorable h5 trof development into the NE pacific (+epo
trends) resulting in SW advance W central canada +h85 temperature
anomalies from h2 h85 W perturbations from +enso EL nino source
regions coincident with a E propagating mjo from phase 3 to 4. Down-
sheared equatorward pv-streamers shifting into the conus, lee of the
rockies, storms manifesting further E along a sub-tropical pacific
jet. Captured, cut-off, propagating along a favorable storm-track as
colder air pv-streamers are continually downsheared E of the h5
ridging parent to aforementioned +h85 temperature anomalies over w
canada, the NE CONUS pattern has been quiet as of late beneath cold
northerlies.

But into mid-december, those cold northerlies becoming lax, there's
the opportunity for the favorable storm track to lift n, as is the
potential for secondary pv-streamers to wrap S and capture any such
storm development. Worth noting with respect to the weekend into
early next week forecast. Whether this pattern maintains is somewhat
uncertain per N pacific trends (wpo or epo) as well echoes occurring
up through the stratosphere with dominant N american ridging as the
sw heat-pump out of the pacific continues downstream across canada,
the parent strato-vortex shoved to the other side of the hemisphere.

Cpc 8 to 14 day and 3 to 4 week outlooks concerning above-average
temperatures seem to coincide with such trends.

Details in the discussion below highlighting forecast thinking along
with forecast model preference.

* discussion...

Friday night through Saturday night...

consensus forecast trend Friday night through Saturday night of n-
stream dissociated energy from a downsheared, cut-off stacked low
sweeping through the NE CONUS with a surface reflection trailing
cold front. Lead isentropic ascent emanating from s-stream cut-off
low tied into the pacific sub-tropical jet undergoing lift beneath
stable heights, wedge of high pressure, confluent mid-upper level
flow. Can't rule out chance pops with light to moderate rain given
weak mid-level ascent and support per right-rear-quadrant of a h3
jet. Quite possible a tongue of high theta-e, high precipitable
water air wedges in right ahead of the cold front prior to sweeping
new england. Yet uncertainty given how quickly the cold front sweeps
through, dry air following. Marginal thermal fields, lack of any
arctic air. Onset high-terrain freezing rain per wet-bulb processes
possible, otherwise all liquid. Waffling h5 ridging coupled with
surface high pressure Saturday night, a low confidence forecast.

Sunday through Sunday night...

if secondary n-stream follow-up pv-streamer dips further S faster,
then seemingly sooner the s-stream cut-off low pivots and wraps back
beneath lower heights, negative-tilted, promoting rapid cyclogenesis
and storm maturation closer to the S new england shoreline. However,
notable forecast model spread continues with feature morphology, a
slower pace, the cut-off low nudged out to sea yielding perhaps a
skirt of or a complete miss in outcomes. Low confidence despite a
trend towards better consensus. Confident arctic air bottled well
n w, thermal fields will be marginal. If wintry precip-types, will
need a deeper low center manifesting its own cold air downward, h85-
7 low positioning crucial in such a case. Isentropic ageostrophic
n flow from departing high pressure wedge likely aiding as well. A
couple more forecast model runs and hopefully there will be a better
idea on specifics. Higher pops towards S E coastal new england along
with stronger winds closer to the forecast low center near the 40n
70w benchmark, cyclonic motions associated, an eye on comma-head
trowaling features. Quick moving given progressive flow downstream,
looking at outcomes around a 12-hour period. Chance pops. Ensemble
mean and accompanying probability preference.

Monday through Thursday...

initial arctic blast equatorward in wake of the deepening h5 trough
over E SE canada. Blustery NW winds making it feel colder. Coldest
air Wednesday morning with high pressure in control, radiational
cooling processes. Moderating temperature trend into Thursday with
southerly winds as high pressure shifts e. Preference towards the ec
ensemble mean.

Thursday night onward...

another storm possible late-week, but too early to say on specifics.

Only worthy of a mention based on run-to-run ec consistency with
accompanying ecens trends.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

today... High confidence in trends. Low confidence in exact
locations of heavier snow showers.

Vfr for most of today. Scattered shsn, mainly west of kore-kijd,
and especially towards the berkshires. Heavier showers may
result in MVFR CIGS and vsbys, especially across the higher
terrain.

Tonight... Moderate confidence. A scattered to broken deck of
marginalVFR MVFR CIGS mainly focused across the interior, with
vfr conditions likely dominating across eastern new england.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Slowly improving conditions across
the western half of southern new england. Lowest confidence
aspect is timing. Lower conditions may persist longer than
current forecast.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance ra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
ra.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance ra, slight chance sn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance ra, chance sn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Once seas subside later this morning across the eastern coastal
waters, expecting rather tranquil boating conditions to prevail
through Friday as a high pressure passes by.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday through Sunday night: moderate risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Chance of rain.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz250-255.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est this morning for anz254.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk
short term... Belk
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi65 min NNE 9.9 G 13 22°F 1029.7 hPa (+2.5)13°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi80 min Calm 10°F 6°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi61 min NNE 5.8 G 9.7 27°F 45°F4 ft1029.2 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi35 min 21°F 1030.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi75 min NE 9.7 G 14 28°F 46°F4 ft1029 hPa (+2.2)17°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi61 min NNE 14 G 19 23°F 45°F3 ft1029.6 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi27 min 46°F4 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi35 min N 5.1 G 6 14°F 41°F1031.2 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi65 min NNW 5.1 12°F 3°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi71 minNNW 310.00 miFair18°F3°F54%1030.9 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi72 minNNW 510.00 miFair16°F3°F56%1029.6 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi69 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds14°F2°F59%1030.2 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3NW9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W5W5SW4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmW4NW6NW3N4
2 days agoW3NW4CalmSW3NW5N9NW8
G16
NW11NW8NW7NW9NW7N5N6N5N5CalmN5N4CalmW3W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts (2)
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Newburyport
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Thu -- 03:26 AM EST     7.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:28 PM EST     7.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.74.56.2776.45.33.92.61.71.41.93.14.96.57.57.56.95.84.32.71.50.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
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Thu -- 01:56 AM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:24 AM EST     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 PM EST     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.410.1-0.6-1-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.50.911.21.10.3-0.5-1-1.1-0.9-0.8-0.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.