Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lackawanna, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:59PM Monday June 26, 2017 4:48 AM EDT (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 746 Pm Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. A chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Thursday night.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 73 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201706260315;;820623 FZUS51 KBUF 252346 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-260315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lackawanna, NY
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location: 42.82, -78.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260821
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
421 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Temperatures will continue to run cooler than average through
Tuesday, as an upper level trough moves across the region. The
cooler temperatures will be accompanied by showers at times, as a
series of upper level disturbances cross the area. The trough will
move east by Wednesday, with warmer temperatures expected by mid-
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A chilly airmass continues to spread into the region early this
morning with mesoanalysis showing 850mb temps have lowered to +7
over the forecast area. This is certainly cool enough to bring a
some lake effect enhancement east of the +22c on lake erie and +19c
on lake ontario. While some widely scattered isolated showers are
showing up on radar, expect development of scattered lake effect
showers through early this morning. Shear profiles do not look ideal
for well organized bands. An overall 260-270 degree flow will direct
the highest probabilities for showers across the western southern
tier southern erie county off lake erie and oswego county into
southern lewis off lake ontario. Lake induced equilibrium levels of
20kft+ yields a chance of thunder along with graupel possible if
some degree of organized bands can develop. Overnight lows will
again dip into the low-mid 50s and even upper 40s in the cooler
interior western southern tier and tug hill.

After sunrise, anomalously cold upper level trough will continue to
cross the great lakes. Another short wave looks to rotate through
the base of the trough improving overall dynamics. This feature
along with the combination of above-average lake temperatures, and
850 mb temperatures nearing +4c are almost certain to generate a
robust lake response, creating the potential for bands of rains
downwind of the lakes. Cool air aloft, clouds and rain will keep
most temperatures in the 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
A september'ish pattern will begin this period as a deep 500 hpa
long wave trough remains over the great lakes region. To open
Tuesday a shortwave will be rounding the bottom of the trough,
bringing the coolest 850 hpa temperatures yet with a pool of +4c air
passing over lake erie, and later in the morning across lake
ontario.

This cool pool of air aloft along with a wsw wind flow ahead of the
shortwave will generate lake effect rain. The shortwave trough
should be upon lake erie to start the period and this feature will
begin to veer the boundary winds such that lake effect rain across
the southtowns of buffalo at daybreak will be pushed southward
towards the so. Tier... Where the rain will become more disorganized
within the daytime mixing. Off lake ontario a southwest wind will
push lake effect rain towards watertown and points northward. Lake
instability will not be as great, both with the slightly cooler lake
surface and the later in the morning arrival of the coldest air
aloft. Thus lake effect rain will likely not be as intense off lake
ontario as off lake erie. Off both lakes, a steady state to the
bands of rain could produce over an inch of rain from late Monday
night and into Tuesday morning... And will continue to mention the
heavy rain possibility. With lake induced equilibrium levels
rising to 25 to 30k feet (mainly over lake erie) there will be
chances for thunder within the bands of lake effect rain, with a
waterspout or two possible over lake erie.

Otherwise Tuesday will be cool (highs typical of late september)
with scattered showers becoming a bit more widespread in the
afternoon to the east as the upper level shortwave passes. The cold
pool aloft and steep low level lapse rates could trigger a few
thunderstorms that may bear small hail with freezing levels and wbz
levels low. Skinny CAPE profiles will prevent the small hail from
becoming larger to severe criteria.

Behind the upper level shortwave Tuesday night rain showers will
quickly become fewer in number. Though we will begin to have warm
air advection later Tuesday night behind the eastward shift to the
upper level trough, it will remain cool enough aloft to allow for
some lake effect rain showers across the so. Tier early in the
overnight period Tuesday... And through the night east of lake
ontario on a westerly flow. It will be cool Tuesday night with lows
dropping into the low to mid 50s. In areas across the so. Tier and
north country that can clear out Tuesday night, temperatures will
drop down into the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday will begin to transition to a bit of a warmer pattern as
850 hpa temperatures rise to around +10 to +12c. This will promote
afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s, with increasing
amounts of sunshine. The exception will be across the north country
where the western periphery of the upper level trough may trigger a
shower through the early afternoon hours. A surface high pressure
will pass to our south Wednesday and light westerly winds will
maintain very comfortable levels of humidity. Wednesday night this
surface high pressure will slip to the east, and a southerly flow
behind the high will begin to bring milder air and moisture
northward. It will still remain comfortable in the humidity
department Wednesday night with dewpoints around 50f... While
overnight lows will not be as chilly as Tuesday night... With
lows generally in the 50s. Near the lake shore the warm lakes
will allow for some shoreline communities to remain in the lower
60s for lows.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
This will be a very unsettled period across our forecast area... As
we can anticipate numerous showers and thunderstorms... Including the
likelihood for some localized heavy rain. Temperatures will average
a little above normal... Largely due to warm nights... While humidity
levels will climb to uncomfortable levels.

The unsettled conditions will be supported by an oscillating frontal
boundary that will straddle the lower great lakes. Two distinct
surface waves will eject out of a broad... Low amplitude trough over
the center of the country during this time period... With each
pushing the boundary back and forth across our region to
force enhance the convection. The most widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity will be on Thursday in advance of the first
wave... Then Friday night and Saturday as the second feature passes.

Max temperatures all four of these days will generally range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s... While overnight lows will mainly be in
the mid 60s.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
Vfr remains in place early this morning with only a few isolated
showers on the radar. A cooler airmass continues to move over the
forecast area where some lake effect showers will likely develop
toward 12z before moving inland as a lake effect modifies to a lake
breeze. Associated convection should move inland during the day as a
result. Some MVFR will be possible with those showers (and
thunderstorms). Lake effect showers look to become much more
organized tonight under a southwest flow which should direct a
decently organized band of rain showers and potentially some thunder
and graupel near kbuf and maybe even kart.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms... Mainly in the afternoons.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Although winds have dropped off a little overnight, expect winds to
quickly pick up again after sunrise today with renewed west to
southwest winds near 20 knots, lasting through this evening along
with some lake effect showers. Waves will generally range from 3 to
6 feet on the eastern end of lake erie, sufficient for small craft
advisory conditions through this evening. Smaller waves are expected
on lake ontario.

Lighter winds will promote sub-advisory wave action on the lakes
from tonight through at least mid-week with periods of lake effect
showers over the lakes into Tuesday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement from noon edt today through this
evening for nyz019.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Tuesday night for
lez040-041.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Smith tma
short term... Thomas
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi49 min WNW 8 G 8.9 63°F 1014.4 hPa (-0.7)53°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 15 mi49 min 65°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.9)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 21 mi49 min 62°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.7)
45142 - Port Colborne 26 mi109 min W 18 G 21 65°F 67°F3 ft1014.7 hPa (-0.7)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 33 mi49 min SSW 4.1 G 6 60°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 36 mi49 min W 19 G 22 65°F 1015 hPa (-1.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 36 mi49 min SW 5.1 G 8 61°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.7)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 48 mi109 min WSW 9.7 G 12 61°F 63°F1 ft1014.4 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY10 mi55 minW 610.00 miOvercast62°F48°F62%1014.6 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY21 mi56 minW 610.00 miOvercast61°F50°F67%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW6SW5W6W8W10W8W12
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SW13SW7SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7S5S9
2 days agoSW13
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SW12SW8S9S9SW10SW10SW9SW10SW10
G19
SW9SW8W8SW8SW5W4NW7W8NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.