Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lackawanna, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:20PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 736 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am edt Tuesday...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Occasional showers through the early overnight, then a chance of showers late.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers Friday night.
Saturday..West winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers. The water temperature off buffalo is 62 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201710240300;;310680 FZUS51 KBUF 232336 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 736 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-240300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lackawanna, NY
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location: 42.82, -78.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240006
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
806 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A robust cold front will plow across our region tonight
with strong gusty winds and a period of steady rain marking its
passage. Cooler air in its wake will then encourage temperatures to
finally return to autumn like levels by mid week.

Near term through Tuesday
After several days of salubrious weather... A very dynamic storm
system will track by to our west tonight and explosively deepen by
more than 20mb as it will make its way to the confluence of the
upper great lakes. The strengthening storm system will swing a robust
surface occlusion through our region in the process... And this will
result in a period of showers tonight along with some strong gusty
winds. Accordingly... Wind advisories are in place for the western
southern tier... The higher terrain of the finger lakes region... And
the north country for winds that could gust to near 50 mph. Looking
more closely at the forecast details...

a phasing of a split flow over the eastern half of the country will
take place tonight... As a robust shortwave within the northern branch
will dive south to the ohio valley. This will carve out a full latitude
longwave trough that will help to eject a storm system already found
over that region. As the mature southern stream system ejects to the
north... It will push a strong surface occlusion across our forecast
area. Strong h925-70 frontogentic forcing associated with this boundary
will be accompanied by some lift under the right rear entrance region
of a cyclonic 110kt h25 jet over southern ontario... Providing plenty of
forcing within an airmass that will include pwat values in the vcnty of
1.5 inches. While strong downsloping has decidedly eaten away at the
leading edge of the resultant shower activity that pushed into far
western new york since mid afternoon... An increase in the aforementioned
forcing later on this evening should result in showers becoming more
widespread across far wny by later on this evening... Then pushing
east across the remainder of the area overnight in concert with the
eastward advance of the surface occlusion. At this point... It still
appears that most areas should see a general 3-5 hours worth of fairly
persistent showers... Some of which could also feature some embedded
convection and attendant moderate to heavy rain.

The precipitation tonight will be found within a deep southerly
flow... One that will favor some training while also retarding the
eastward progression of the main swath of showers. While this will
encourage a soaking rainfall across the southern tier... The resulting
downsloping will tend to eat away at rainfall amounts across the lake
plains. As the occlusion pushes east during the course of the night...

a distinct dry slot will start to work across the region. This will
bring an end to the widespread rain over the far western counties
overnight... While the steady pcpn will be in the process of working
across the north country.

The other potential issue for tonight will be the risk for some
strong gusty winds. A 60-70 knot low level jet will precede the sfc
occlusion and will likely precede the steadier rain. A portion of
these strong winds should end up mixing to the surface... With the
greatest risk areas lying across our higher terrain... And also
possibly in regions of favored downslope flow along the lake erie
shoreline... North-northwest facing slopes of the tug hill... And in
the northwest to southeast oriented black river valley. While the
orientation of the low level jet and strength of the corresponding
inversion are not exactly ideal for a classic downslope wind event...

there is still little doubt that it will be windy... With the highest
winds probably more likely to mix down across the higher elevations.

Either way... A wind advisory is in effect as outlined below to cover
both of these possible scenarios.

Tuesday... All of the forcing associated with the initial storm
system will exit across the st lawrence valley while a wealth of mid
level dry air will spread across the entirety of our forecast area.

This will bring an end to the remaining steady rain that will be
found over eastern sections and should greatly limit any possible
lake effect rain that tries to get going north northeast of lake erie.

H85 temps will drop to around 4c over lake erie by the end of the
day... So this should be just short of establishing any real response
off lake erie. The cold advection will lead to a cooler day though...

as MAX temps will range from the upper 50s over parts of the southern
tier to the upper 60s east of the genesee valley. Interestingly enough...

these readings will still be above normal late october values.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
It's finally going to feel more like october than late summer as
much cooler air will settle in across the lower great lakes during
this period.

A nearly stationary upper level trough over michigan will be in
the process of slowly progressing east into the lower great lakes
Tuesday night. A pronounce dry slot ahead of main center of
circulation and trough axis will slowly work its way east across
western and north central new york Tuesday night. This will
provide virtually dry weather for a vast majority of the area
through the overnight hours. Temperatures wise, behind the frontal
boundary expect lows to drop back in the 40s across the vast
majority of the forecast area.

Wednesday, as the axis of the upper level trough continues to near
western new york cooler air aloft will continue to filter into the
region(850t dropping to -2c to -3c). This will help to generate
some lake effect response with rain showers developing off lake
erie. Initially, SW cyclonic flow of 220-230 will focus most lake
effect rain showers across grand island and northern portions of the
niagara frontier. These lake effect rain showers will then drop across
the buffalo metro area late in the day Wednesday and the south towns
shortly after.

Wednesday night, as the axis of the upper level trough swings
through west-southwest flow will focus the lake effect rain showers
south of buffalo across western southern tier.

Off lake ontario, although brief a similar scenario will develop
with lake effect rain showers increasing later Wednesday night.

These lake effect rain showers will slowly move south across
jefferson and lewis county and affect a portion of oswego county on
Thursday before diminishing.

Thursday, the upper level trough will exit the region and surface
high pressure will build into the lower great lakes. Any lingering
shower activity will diminish by the afternoon with clearing skies
but remaining on the cool side. Temperature wise, highs will top out
in the 50s for most locations which will be near to slightly below
normal for this time of year.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Thursday night a narrow surface ridge will build across the eastern
great lakes with dry conditions. This high will drift to the east
coast on Friday, but still remain near enough to provide subsidence
and support another dry day. Southerly return flow will increase
between the departing high and another strong trough moving into the
upper midwest. This will allow temperatures to briefly return to
above normal, with highs back into the mid 60s.

Model guidance begins to diverge after that, with the 12z gfs
notably faster in bringing the next system into our region than the
12z ecmwf. The faster GFS brings showers into the bulk of the region
Saturday as a cold front slowly crosses the area, while the ecmwf
would keep Saturday dry with the cold front not arriving until later
Saturday night. Given the uncertainty in timing, have just slowly
increased pops through the chance range from west to east Saturday
and Saturday night.

Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday through Monday as the
cold front moves slowly east of the area, and then a significant
wave of low pressure develops along the front and moves northward
along the eastern seaboard. An associated upper level low will close
off and remain over the eastern great lakes, supporting a chance of
rain showers each day. Temperatures will turn significantly cooler
by Sunday and Monday, but it does not appear cold enough to allow
for any wet snow to mix in even across higher terrain.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Rapidly deepening low pressure will track by to the west of our
region tonight... Stalling over the confluence of the upper great
lakes on Tuesday. This strong storm system will sweep its associated
cold front across our region in the process... And this will lead to
a significant deterioration in our weather.

InitialVFR CIGS early this evening will give way to several hours of
showers from west to east tonight... Along with CIGS vsbys that will
lower to MVFR levels in many areas. This will especially be the case
across the higher terrain of the southern tier and the finger lakes...

where some ifr CIGS cannot be totally ruled out.

Following the passage of the cold front... The showers will then
sharply taper off from west to east late tonight and Tuesday
morning... With any lower CIGS gradually improving toVFR levels.

Along with the showers and deteriorating cigs... Winds of 60-70 knots
at 4-6k ft will present the risk for some low level wind shear out
ahead of the cold front tonight. Since a portion of these winds is
expected to mix to the surface... Have largely left the mention of
wind shear out of the tafs.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... MainlyVFR.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR... Except at kbuf kiag where some showers will
be likely... And reductions to MVFR will be possible.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers east of lake ontario.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers.

Marine
A storm system over lower michigan this evening will make its way to
the soo late tonight and Tuesday while rapidly deepening to around
980mb. This will result in significant freshening of the southeast
winds which will gradually veer to the south-southwest later tonight
and Tuesday. While the highest waves will be in canadian waters...

conditions will still warrant small craft advisories for most of the
nearshore zones.

Moderately strong southwesterlies will then be in place Tuesday
night through Wednesday... So the small craft advisories will remain
in place for an extended period on lake erie. In fact... Winds may
actually reach their highest overall levels during Tuesday night...

when sustained winds to around 30 knots and some lower-end gale force
gusts will become possible.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for nyz006>008.

Wind advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for nyz012-019>021-085.

Wind advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for nyz013-014.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Tuesday for
loz045.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Ar hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi52 min ESE 13 G 16 69°F 1005.3 hPa50°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 15 mi52 min 69°F 1005 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 21 mi52 min 66°F 1006 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 26 mi82 min SE 14 G 18 67°F 62°F2 ft1005.1 hPa (-3.8)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 33 mi82 min E 2.9 G 6 64°F 1006.8 hPa (-3.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 36 mi82 min SE 9.9 G 17 67°F 1004.6 hPa (-4.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 36 mi82 min E 6 G 8 64°F 1008.1 hPa (-2.7)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 48 mi82 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 61°F1 ft1004.9 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY10 mi28 minSSE 15 G 2410.00 miLight Rain68°F53°F59%1006 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY21 mi29 minSE 1110.00 miLight Rain67°F53°F61%1005.5 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S9S8S9S9S7S6S7SE8S7S11SE10SE8S7S10S10S15
G19
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SE12SE10SE10SE14
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G24
1 day agoSE3S4SE5S4S4SE4SE5S4S6S4SE6SE7SE5S7S4SW64SW6SW6SW8SW7S4SE4S5
2 days agoS3S4S4S5S3S5S4S6S5S8S6SE5SE4S5S7SW7SW9SW8SW8W6SW4SW3CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.