Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lackawanna, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:00AMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 422 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 45 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201704290300;;413171 FZUS51 KBUF 282022 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 422 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ020-290300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lackawanna, NY
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location: 42.82, -78.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 290220
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1020 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017

Synopsis
A warm frontal boundary will push towards our region overnight, then
will linger over the region through the weekend. This will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, although much of the time
it will remain dry and mild.

Near term /through Saturday/
Overnight... A warm front over the ohio valley will push a bit closer
toward our region... Spreading in a decent likelihood of showers northward
into the western southern tier during the overnight hours... With
lower-end chances of showers extending as far north as lake ontario.

On Saturday... Most models stall the warm front near the pennsylvania
border... With the best chance for additional showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms during Saturday continuing to lie along the southern
tier, with a much better chance for a completely dry day closer to
lake ontario and the north country.

Rising dew points will help keep temperatures mild tonight, with
most overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures on
Saturday will greatly depend on amount of sunshine or lack of cloud
cover/precipiation, but for the most part still looks mild with most
areas reaching the 60s.

Short term /Saturday night through Tuesday/
Saturday night into Sunday a developing low pressure system over the
central plains will begin to influence the stalled frontal boundary
across the area pushing it northward as a warm front. The warm
frontal boundary aloft will move north of lake ontario Sunday,
however the surface warm front will get hung up on on the south side
of lake ontario, enhanced by the lake breeze off the relatively
cooler lake waters. The main area of widespread synoptic
precipitation will develop along the frontal boundary aloft north of
lake ontario, while enhanced surface convergence along the surface
boundary will continue to support scattered showers across western
ny. There will also be a wide range in temperatures on Sunday with
locations north of the i-90 thruway corridor markedly cooler than
areas south across the western southern tier and southern genesee
valley. Along the southern lake ontario shoreline and the saint
lawrence valley temperatures will likely remain in the 40s to low
50s, while temperatures across southern portions of the state could
push into the upper 70s. Rochester and watertown will likely remain
on the cooler side in the 50s, while buffalo will be very near the
transition with as much as a 20 degree temperature difference
possible between the southtowns and niagara falls.

By Sunday night into Monday, the surface warm front will finally
push north across lake ontario with deep southerly downslope winds
developing across the region in the warm sector of the occluded low
pressure system centered back across wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures
will again surge to +15 to +18c promoting temperatures reaching at
least the upper 70s to low 80s, depending on cloud cover and timing
of the impinging cold front. Showers will cross the region with
thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening. There will be
ample shear to result in strong to severe thunderstorms; however, the
main limiting factor will be how much instability can be realized
ahead of the approaching front. This will depend on the timing of
the front itself and how much sunshine can break through in the warm
sector to destabilize the atmosphere. Will continue to mention the
potential in the hazardous weather outlook. The cold front and any
associated convection will cross the region through Monday evening
with cooler air filtering in it wake.

A cooler airmass will be in place on Tuesday as the trough crosses
the region. As the upper-level trough crosses the region on Tuesday
enough moisture and ascent from the trough passage could spark some
light showers across the region with the steep lapse rates aloft.

Cloud cover will also linger under the trough, and with 850 mb
temperatures to around 0c, high temperatures will be limited to the
upper 40s/ low 50s in western ny to nearly 60 toward central ny.

Tuesday will be a windy day, with a 45-50 kt 850mb flow potentially
supporting advisory level gusts to 50 mph. Ultimately this will
depend on the track and strength of the surface low, and if there is
any sunshine to help mix these winds aloft to the surface. This
threat of gusty winds is included in the hazardous weather outlook.

Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/
Cool and unsettled weather look to be the norm for most days over
the next few weeks as a mean longwave trough remains in place over
the great lakes and northeast, with frequent shortwaves and
associated surface lows bringing periods of showers and fresh
deliveries of cool air.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the deep upper level trough over the
great lakes will move east across quebec and weaken, but will still
maintain enough influence across our region to keep below normal
temperatures in place right through the end of next week. 850mb
temps run from -2c to -4c Wednesday depending on model of choice,
and only improve to around +1c by Friday.

The weather will remain unsettled as well. Tuesday night and
Wednesday the eastward moving trough will combine with cool air
aloft and remaining wrap around moisture to support scattered
showers, especially across the higher terrain with an added boost
from upslope flow. It should briefly dry out Wednesday night as a
bubble of high pressure builds over the eastern great lakes and new
england.

By Thursday and Friday of next week another trough is forecast to
dig into the eastern us, and potentially phase and close off into a
mid level closed low. An associated low will form along or inland of
the east coast and move slowly northward. If this materializes, it
will spread clouds and more showers into the region for the end of
the week.

Aviation /03z Saturday through Wednesday/
A warm frontal boundary over the ohio valley will lift northward
to the ny/pa border overnight... Where it will then stall out through
Saturday.

Expect increasing/lowering clouds to spread across the region from
southwest to northeast in advance of the frontal boundary... With some
rain showers then following suit overnight across areas south of lake
ontario... With the greatest coverage of these expected to be across
the southern tier. Expect flight conditions to mostly be in theVFR
range... Though some MVFR/ifr will develop across the higher terrain
of the southern tier/finger lakes later on tonight.

On Saturday... Expect scattered showers (and perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms as well) from time to time south of lake ontario... With
the greatest chances of these again found across the western southern
tier. Meanwhile... Morning ifr/MVFR restrictions across the higher
terrain of the southern tier/finger lakes will generally improve back
toVFR... WithVFR conditions prevailing elsewhere.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Monday... MVFR to locally ifr with showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Waves will approach 2 feet on the eastern waters of the great lakes
tonight. A frontal boundary will become draped across the lower
great lakes to start this weekend, though winds and waves will
remain light and minimal through the day Saturday and Saturday
night.

Strengthening east to northeasterly winds will likely bring
small craft advisory conditions to the western lake ontario
nearshores for Sunday. Another, stronger storm system may bring
another round of thunderstorms early next week, with high end
small craft conditions likely returning on the lakes by
Tuesday.

Tides/coastal flooding
East to northeast winds will increase Sunday, with waves
building across western portions of lake ontario. This combined
with already high levels on lake ontario has the potential to
result in lakeshore flooding along the shoreline. The highest
waves are expected in niagara, orleans and western monroe
counties. There is still uncertainty concerning the placement of
the highest wave heights since even a slight shift to the more
easterly direction would push the highest waves to the canadian
shoreline.

Climate
The last days of april will finish with above normal temperatures,
warm enough that it will send our climate sites towards a top
10 warmest april on record. The degree of anomalous warmth has
been greater towards the west, where climate site buffalo may
near the warmest april on record. Below are the warmest aprils
on record.

Buffalo
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..51.3... ... ... 1921
2... ... ..51.1... ... ... 2010
3... ... ..51.0... ... ... 1955
4... ... ..50.9... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..50.8... ... ... 1878
current april average temperature through april 27th: 50.3f
rochester
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..52.6... ... ... 1878
2... ... ..52.5... ... ... 1921
3... ... ..52.4... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..52.3... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..51.4... ... ... 1915
current april average temperature through april 27th: 51.2f
watertown
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..49.1... ... ... 1987
2... ... ..48.7... ... ... 1955
3... ... ..48.7... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..48.3... ... ... 1968
5... ... ..48.2... ... ... 2008
current april average temperature through april 27th: 47.4f
temperature records for buffalo and rochester begin 1871, while
watertown's history is a bit shorter, with temperature records
beginning in 1949.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr/tma
near term... Jjr/tma
short term... Church
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr/tma
marine... Tma
tides/coastal flooding... Apffel/tma
climate... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi43 min S 13 G 14 58°F 1014.5 hPa48°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 15 mi43 min 61°F 1015.1 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 21 mi43 min 59°F 1015 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 33 mi31 min W 7 G 8.9 51°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 36 mi31 min W 4.1 G 6 61°F 1015.4 hPa (-1.2)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 36 mi31 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 48 mi91 min W 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 42°F1014.6 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY10 mi37 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast61°F46°F58%1015.3 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY21 mi38 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast62°F45°F54%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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SW11SW10SW10SW8SW14SW12SW14SW12SW13SW14SW12SW11SW8SW13SW10SW7SW9S7S7SW4S10
1 day agoSE5SE7SE7SE6SE7SE7SE11SE10S8S13
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2 days agoNE4NE4E8E4NE4NE3E7E7SE44E444CalmNW4NE7NE8N7N7NE6NE3W5CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.