Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:52 PM   Moonset 2:50 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 432 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog after midnight.Sunday - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny.Sunday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Monday - Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.Monday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 55 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 190916 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 516 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure extending from the Labrador Sea and the Canadian maritimes back across our region will generally keep fair dry weather in place through at least the beginning of the new work week. More notable will be the summer like heat that we can look forward to, as the mercury in most areas will climb WELL into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
While fair dry weather will be in place throughout the region overnight, as was expected lingering low level moisture is encouraging fog development, especially across areas west of the Genesee Valley. Expansion of the fog can be seen quite nicely on Nighttime Microphysics satellite. It will stay on the mild side of average with lows mainly in the mid and upper 50s.

After early morning fog and stratus dissipate, mainly dry weather is expected Sunday as a mid and upper level ridge starts to build overhead. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary in place. High temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Summer-like warmth will be the main story as daytime temperatures climb solidly into the 80s both Monday through Wednesday. We might even see a few locales touch 90F, especially in the Genesee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. A shower or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible well inland from the lakes on Monday.

On Tuesday...a shortwave is advertised to crest over the top of the 500mb ridge. This feature will bring some showers to the St.
Lawrence Valley in the morning, and then additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the afternoon inland from the lakes.

Southwest flow strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday as low pressure tracks from Lake Superior to near Hudson Bay. The warmth will peak on Wednesday as H850T's reach its maximum aloft of +15C to +17C. This will easily support highs in the mid to upper 80s near 90F. No record highs anticipated at KBUF or KROC but we could near it at KART (86F:1985)
Additionally
this will likely be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms as a pre-frontal trough arrives across the region near peak heating
Right now
BUFKIT sounding profiles show CAPE values ramping up to 1300-1600 J/kg in the afternoon, and 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. Given the favorable timing...we could see some stronger storms develop inland from the cooler stable lake environment. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures and the potential for strong storms as we move closer.

Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue as we head into Wednesday night as the cold front nears and crosses the region overnight. Mild muggy night expected ahead of the cold front with lows expected in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the region or just to our east by Thursday morning. There may still be some showers that linger behind the front on Thursday but should be fairly limited coverage wise
Otherwise
it will be cooler Thursday with highs in the low-mid 70s.

A secondary cold front is advertised to cross the region late Thursday night or even early Friday which will deliver a second shot of cooler air to the eastern Great Lakes
That said
the main challenge will be how much cooler with H850 temperatures potentially down to +4C to +7C. Guidance still shows anywhere from low-mid 60s to low-mid 70s. Will lean on NBM guidance at this point which is right in the middle with upper 60s to around 70F for daytime highs on Friday. The cooler airmass rapidly modifies over the weekend with a warming trend taking place across the region.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected east of Lake Ontario (KART) right through Sunday with solid mid level decks remaining in place through the remainder of the overnight. Meanwhile conditions deteriorate from east to west south of Lake Ontario, with the worst conditions (VLIFR/LIFR) across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) and far southwestern NYS (KJHW) where VSBYs have fallen to a quarter mile over the past 1 to 2 hours. Nighttime Microphysics satellite shows the denser fog expanding inland from the western Lake Ontario and eastern Lake Erie shorelines. Lower Genesee Valley will likely be in between VFR to the east and VLIFR to the west, so the battle at KROC will be between the formation of fog versus stratus.

Heading into Sunday, low stratus and fog over western NY will slowly improve to VFR through the mid to late morning hours. Widespread VFR conditions then expected for Sunday afternoon and evening, although there may be a stray shower or rumble of thunder toward the upper Genesee Valley during the afternoon.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated air mass will continue over the lower Great Lakes tonight allowing for fog and stratus to expand over the Lakes with poor visibility conditions possibly becoming widespread late tonight into the first half of Sunday on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario with light flow.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001-002- 010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ042- 062.

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