Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Amesbury Town, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:19PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:56 PM EST (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 717 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale warning in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds across the waters tonight and early Sat. Intensifying low pres tracks across the saint lawrence river valley Sat night and Sun, with its attending strong cold front sweeping across the new england waters Sun afternoon. High pres then builds into the water early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amesbury Town, MA
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location: 42.83, -70.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 172341
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
641 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure crests across our area tonight, providing dry but
cold weather. Strengthening low pressure will push across the st.

Lawrence river valley this weekend with gusty southwest winds
developing Saturday afternoon and night. Strong to damaging wind
threats continue behind this departing system Sunday, potentially
lingering into Monday. The ebb and flow pattern of southerly warm
air surges followed by northerly cold air drainage continues through
the week into the thanksgiving weekend.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
7 pm update...

winds diminishing under clear conditions will allow temperatures
to drop quickly down to lows in the teens to 20s. High pressure
in control.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
An intensifying low pressure moving through the great lakes into
the saint lawrence river valley Saturday into Saturday night
will mean an increasing southwest wind for southern new england.

These southwest winds will also mean higher temperatures, likely
slowly rising Saturday night instead of falling.

Lots of dry air to overcome in the lower levels. Thinking the
nam might be a bit too fast bringing precipitation into our
region. Stayed with the slower timing presented by the gfs,
ecmwf and cmc solutions. This would bring a chance of showers to
much of our region during the afternoon. The brunt of the light
rainfall should be Saturday night across our region.

Will need to contemplate a wind advisory for the south coast of
ri and ma late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Will
mention in the hazardous weather outlook, and let the next shift
get a closer look at the details.

Long term Sunday through Friday
* highlights...

- widespread strong to damaging W NW winds Sunday into Sunday night
- winds will linger into Monday with perhaps less of an impact
- ebb and flow pattern of S warm air surges followed by N cold air
continues
* overview...

ebb and flow continues. Without greater amplification and subsequent
transfer between the equator and the poles, the flow remains mainly
zonal. The mjo largely subdued as the present -wpo -epo -pna all
trend positive into december per ensemble means, counter-productive,
lending seemingly to a signal of persistent W to E flow. The only
consistencies it seems from analysis of potential vorticity and
isentropic surfaces is a persistence of poleward transfer in the n
pacific and the NE atlantic that lends to S shearing of energy into
the gulf of alaska and S across europe, respectively. Otherwise it's
zonal in-between. Any energy across the CONUS is quick moving with
little residency such that forces acting to invoke greater curvature
and storm development reach their full potential E of our region
across E SE canada into the NW atlantic. With racing storm systems
over our region, warm-surge in advance followed by cool shots, both
with attributes of gusty winds, a chance of wet-weather in-between
along associated frontal boundaries, cold fronts with more emphasis.

Attendant threats and impacts highlighted in the discussion below.

* discussion...

Sunday into Monday...

winds shifting NW ushering colder air, remaining blustery. Consensus
of forecast guidance, cold front sweeping 7-10a Sunday, undercutting
colder air, lapse rates mixing out to h85, dry adiabatic, the top of
the mix layer averaging W NW 45 to 50 mph (40 to 45 kts). Widespread
wind advisory likely, more likely daytime Sunday with boundary layer
heating and contributions from quick pressure rises. Ensemble means,
strongest winds likely across the high terrain and along the coast
adjacent to 50-degree ocean waters, also N E closer to the storm
center, so N E portions of ma at greatest threat. Cips analogs with
a high probability of at least 35 mph widespread gusts, lower for 40
to 45 mph, however considering local climatology, believe there is
the potential to see 40+ mph gusts.

Headlines may drop overnight with the potential of a shallow surface
inversion, however model guidance consensus signals continued cold
air advection right into Monday with additional energy rotating
through the cyclonic flow across the region lending to an enhancement
of the wind profile. Something will have to watch closely.

Will highlight the wind threat in the hazardous weather outlook. No
headlines at this time associated with W NW winds.

Otherwise, drier air surging in aloft behind the quick sweeping cold
front, will see an end to shower activity rather abruptly during the
morning hours. With the blustery W NW winds and cold airmass pouring
in, across the warmer great lakes, the lake effect machine will be
ongoing and could see some of that energy reach far enough E with
the mean flow to impact N W portions of ma and ct with some snow
and or rain shower activity, 2m temperature dependent. If snow, some
light accumulations are possible, mainly for the high terrain.

All threat diminish into Monday night, and it is during this period
that winds may become light enough beneath clear conditions to allow
for radiational cooling and night-time lows to drop well down into
the 20s, possibly teens. Hard to say right now. If W NW winds remain
brisk, then the mechanical mixing in the environment would limit the
radiational cooling potential. Will hold it conservative with wide-
spread lows in the 20s. Highs Sunday into the upper 40s to low 50s
right before the cold front punches through in the morning, upper
30s to low 40s for Monday.

Tuesday...

quiet. High pressure. Return S flow. Turning mild. Still believe
that warmest temperatures will be over interior SE new england, that
an onshore will develop in response to an approaching storm system
for the overnight period into Wednesday. Highs in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...

possible showers. Keeping with slight chance pops, the ec on again
off again on the N and S stream energy beginning to interact with a
draw of s-moisture ahead of the N sweeping cold front before both
systems push offshore quickly and phase downstream. The GFS keeps
the dry-streak going. Given the emphasis on the cold front agreed
upon within all available guidance, would expect that the associated
lift on available moisture should get something going, especially
considering the warmer ocean waters that line the shore.

Thanksgiving onward...

thanksgiving looks quiet and seasonable, while into the weekend it
appears another quick moving storm system sweeps the region. The ebb
and flow pattern continues with milder shots and SW flow ahead of
any disturbance followed by colder air and NW winds as the system
departs.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ...

tonight... High confidence.

Vfr. Dry weather along with diminishing winds.

Saturday... High confidence.

Vfr, light winds and dry weather through the morning. MVFR and
rain begin to increase from west to east, with current timing
18 20z-19 00z. Also s-sw winds increase during the afternoon
with gusts approaching 35 kt by late in the day along the south
coast including CAPE cod and the islands.

Saturday night... High confidence. Mainly MVFR, with local ifr
possible. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt. Ra, patchy br.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Shra likely.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

Monday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance shra, slight chance fzra.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

winds will continue to diminish this evening along with seas.

Saturday and Saturday night...

increasing SW winds as a low pressure moves through the great
lakes into the saint lawrence valley. Showers most likely to
arrive over the waters late Saturday afternoon, and continue
into Saturday night. Some risk for storm force gusts Saturday
night, but have greater confidence in gale force winds. Warnings
posted.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Sunday night: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 14 ft.

Monday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Monday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 5 pm Saturday to 6 am est Monday for
anz232>234.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
anz230.

Gale warning from 1 am Sunday to 6 am est Monday for anz231-
251.

Gale warning from 7 pm Saturday to 7 pm est Sunday for anz236.

Gale warning from 3 pm Saturday to 6 am est Monday for anz235-
237-255-256.

Gale warning from 7 pm Saturday to 6 am est Monday for anz250-
254.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk sipprell
short term...

long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 18 mi72 min W 6 32°F 1015 hPa21°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 22 mi57 min W 23 G 26 35°F 1013.4 hPa (+1.9)18°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi113 min NW 19 G 21 40°F 50°F3 ft1013.3 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 38 mi113 min WNW 19 G 23 37°F 50°F3 ft1013.9 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi67 min WNW 23 G 25 42°F 51°F3 ft1012.6 hPa (+1.8)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 42 mi57 min WSW 1.9 31°F 19°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 44 mi51 min 53°F7 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA10 mi63 minW 510.00 miFair37°F18°F46%1015.3 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA18 mi64 minWNW 610.00 miFair35°F18°F50%1014.2 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi61 minWNW 1110.00 miFair32°F15°F50%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10SW6W8W7SW7W7W8W8W8
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1 day agoE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm64SE8SE10
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S4CalmN3NW4CalmW6W8
2 days agoN5N3N6N8N7N4N4N7N5N3NE3NE3NE7N6NE6E5CalmE7E4E5SE4E5E4E6

Tide / Current Tables for Merrimacport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Merrimacport
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Fri -- 05:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:03 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:34 AM EST     7.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:34 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.16.24.83.11.60.60.20.72.44.56.47.57.675.63.82.10.8-0-01.135.16.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:58 AM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM EST     1.88 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:22 PM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:04 PM EST     1.81 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.3-1-0.10.61.11.71.81.10.2-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.60.30.91.41.81.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.