Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Amesbury Town, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:03AMSunset 8:27PM Friday June 22, 2018 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1010 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1010 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds across the waters tonight. Low pres and an associated warm front will approach late tonight, bringing showers lasting into Sat night. Showers will linger on Sunday as a cold front pushes across southern new england, reaching the coast early Mon. Scattered showers could persist into Mon as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. High pres moves in Mon night and Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amesbury Town, MA
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location: 42.83, -70.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230241
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1041 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will slowly push offshore overnight. A few showers
may approach southern areas toward daybreak. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected at times this weekend, but
it is uncertain if any activity will linger into Monday. Mainly
dry weather with seasonable temperatures anticipated Tuesday and
Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure in control. Summer heat
and humidity should return by the end of next week as this high
moves east of the region.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
1010 pm update...

high pressure ridge remains across the region at 02z with light
s-se winds in place. Temps were running in the lower-mid 60s
across most areas, with some readings down to the upper 50s
across portions of SE mass into ri.

Ne regional 88d radar imagery showing some spotty showers
working n-ne from central nj into SW ct and the nyc metro area.

Not seeing much reaching the ground, however, as t TD spreads
on the order of 10 to 15 degrees, lowering to around 5 degrees
across portions of western long island into N nj where winds
were mainly light easterly. With the onshore winds in place,
will see the dewpoint depressions slowly lower through the
remainder of the night as the ridge pushes offshore.

With this in mind, have brought in slight chance pops across the
mid and lower ct valley SE to the S mass coast by around 09z or
so, a bit faster than previous forecast timing.

Remainder of near term forecast in good shape, but did update to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

the center of high pressure will continue to gradually slide
east of our region. Mainly expect increasing thickening
cloudiness across our area overnight with dry weather
prevailing. May see a few spot showers arrive near
daybreak... But there is initially some dry air to overcome. Low
temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper 50s.

Also, we did update Saturday to include categorical pops and
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. While the entire day
will not be a washout... Most locations should see a period of
two of rainfall with isolated t-storms possible.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Saturday...

a warm front lifts ne-ward during the day, and may reach the south
coast of new england around 00z. Increasing moisture is
expected throughout southern new england, with precipitable
water increasing to 1.5 inches or higher. The approach of the
front will provide lift, allowing for the development of showers
across our area. Planning on going with likely pops. While it
doesn't look to be a washout for the full day, hi-res guidance
is in agreement on areas of showers moving thru the region.

Model thermal profiles show a low level inversion which makes sense
given warm front to the s, and an onshore E wind providing a cooler
marine influence near the surface. However some elevated instability
is anticipated, which should yield isolated thunderstorms and
the potential for brief locally heavy rainfall. Plan to go with
likely pops and considerable cloudiness. High temps will be on
the low side, only reaching into the 60s. A few spots might
reach 70.

Saturday night...

warm front lingers in our vicinity Sat night, accompanied by a 30-40
kt low level jet. This will continue to provide a lifting mechanism
for showers. Precipitable water values remain at or above 1.5
inches, so brief locally heavy rainfall is possible. Model
soundings showing continued elevated instability. Will continue
with likely pops, with isolated thunderstorms. Best chance for
thunder is probably along south coastal ma ri, closer to the low
level jet. Areas of fog developing.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Highlights...

* warmer with scattered showers and t-storms on Sunday
* mainly dry seasonable temps with comfortable humidity Tue and wed
* summer heat humidity should return by the end of next week
details...

Sunday...

the warm front will lift north of most locations Sunday
morning... Allowing a warmer and more humid airmass to move into the
region. High temps should reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s
despite potential for a fair amount of clouds. We may see a period
of partial sunshine though and if that does occur a few middle 80s
would be possible.

The main concern will be Sun afternoon evening when a pre-frontal
trough cold front approach from the west. There probably should be
enough instability for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
during that time. If we can muster 1000 j kg of mlcape... Which is
dependent on solar insolation and amount of low level moisture
return a few strong thunderstorms would be possible. 0 to 6 km shear
is on the order of 30 to 40 knots... But mid level lapse rates are
weak and we will not have the anomalous environment that we saw last
Monday. Nonetheless... A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds
and heavy rainfall are possible if enough instability can be
realized.

Monday...

a vigorous shortwave cold pool aloft will drop southeast into the
northeast on Monday. The GFS is most aggressive showing the
anomalous cold pool dropping furthest south into our region with
500t dropping below -20c. This scenario would likely produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms along with some hail given such
cold temperatures aloft. While this solution is possible, appears
to be a low probability at this time given the rest of the guidance
is further north and east with the cold pool... Resulting in mainly
dry weather. Therefore... Will just include some low pops for now
and see how the models trend over the next 24 hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

mainly dry and pleasant early summer weather with a ridge of high
pressure in control. High temperatures will mainly be in the upper
70s to the middle 80s along with comfortable humidity levels.

Thursday and Friday...

a pattern change to more summerlike warmth and humidity expected thu
and Fri as upper level ridging builds to sour south... Resulting in
rising height fields in southern new england. Highs should be well
up into the 80s to perhaps over 90... But specific details this far
out remain uncertain. Dry weather probably dominates... But a few
showers t-storms can not be ruled out.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence thru
tonight, then moderate confidence.

Overnight... MainlyVFR conditions with CIGS lowering to 5-10kft
after 05z. May see MVFR CIGS move into S coastal ri around
or after 10z.

Saturday... Bands of shra across the region, with isolated tsra
and localized heavy rainfall.VFR in most locations at
12z... But MVFR-ifr conditions push across the region, reaching
the S coast by mid morning, then slowly shifting N through the
afternoon.

Saturday night... Mainly ifr with even some lifr conditions in
areas of showers and fog. Isolated tsra.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru tonight, then
moderate confidence.VFR thru tonight, deteriorating to MVFR
sat morning then ifr during the afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF thru tonight, then
moderate confidence.VFR thru tonight, deteriorating to MVFR
sat morning then ifr during the afternoon. Locally lower
conditions may occur earlier in heavier showers.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR-ifr possible. Chance shra,
isolated tsra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Monday night:VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Overnight and Saturday... S-se winds in place. A few gusts
approaching 25 kt on the southern outer waters late tonight into
early Saturday. Visibility restrictions in areas of fog along
the southern waters late tonight, then in showers and areas of
fog moving in from s-n during sat. Isolated thunderstorms
possible during sat.

Saturday night... Sw winds less than 25 kt. Seas approaching 5 ft on
the southern outer coastal waters. Showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms. Areas of fog visibility 2-3 nm or less.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy
fog.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Frank nmb
near term... Frank evt
short term... Nmb
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank evt
marine... Frank evt nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 18 mi61 min E 1.9 60°F 55°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 22 mi46 min SSE 16 G 17 62°F 1017.7 hPa (+0.5)55°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi102 min 61°F 60°F2 ft1016.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi56 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 62°F1 ft1018.2 hPa (+1.3)56°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 38 mi102 min S 14 G 16 61°F 60°F2 ft1016 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 41 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 11 62°F 59°F1018.5 hPa (+0.6)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 42 mi46 min S 4.1 60°F 55°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 44 mi40 min 62°F2 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA10 mi52 minSSE 310.00 miFair67°F52°F59%1018.5 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA18 mi53 minSSE 610.00 miFair63°F50°F63%1017.5 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi50 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F52°F75%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N7N7N5N3CalmN6NE4N53E5NE4E7--E7
G14
SE6SE7SE6SE4E53SE3
1 day agoSW5SW4S3CalmS5S4S4CalmCalmCalmNW7N8N6N5N7NE8E7E6E3E753CalmCalm
2 days agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW4CalmW3S7S7S9S13SW9
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Merrimacport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Merrimacport
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Fri -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:18 PM EDT     7.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.51.90.80.30.61.93.85.66.87.16.65.43.92.310.30.31.235.16.77.57.46.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:41 PM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:21 PM EDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.1-0.9-0.20.40.81.21.51.10.2-0.4-0.8-0.9-1-1.1-0.60.20.71.11.61.40.7-0.1-0.6-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.