Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mariaville Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:40PM Monday June 26, 2017 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:15AMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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location: 42.83, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 261047
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
647 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will move across the region today with
mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon into the early evening. An upper level low and a cold
front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday with cooler than normal temperatures. High pressure
will build in from the mid atlantic region by Wednesday, but
temperatures will still run slightly below normal for late june.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 637 am edt... An mean mid and upper long-wave trough over
southeast canada and the eastern CONUS will continue to impact
the forecast area the next few days. A series of short-waves
moving through the upper level trough will keep a threat of
isolated-scattered thunderstorms across eastern ny and western
new england today into Tuesday.

The upper level low continues to dig and amplify upstream over
the western and central great lakes region in the water vapor
imagery this morning. The low and mid-level flow will become
southwesterly over the region ahead of the next mid-level short-
wave. The skies have become clear or mostly clear this morning
with cool temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but clouds should
quickly increase ahead of this next short-wave moving across mi
into the eastern great lakes region. This short-wave is not as
strong as yesterdays, but still with a respectable cold pool
aloft with h500 temps of -16c to -21c and steepening mid-level
lapse rates to 6.5-7c km coupled with weak to modest instability
in the 200-800 j kg range with slightly higher pockets up to
1000 j kg will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon into early evening again according to
the latest GFS nam. The low-level moisture is a bit sparse with
sfc dewpts in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and the 0-6 km bulk
shear values do not increase to 40-50 kts over the majority of
the forecast area until the mid to late pm ahead of the short-
wave, when the diurnal heating starts to wane. Pwats will be in
the 0.7" to 1.0" range. Most of the cams such as the 3-km hrrr
and 3-km NAM show a few stronger cells late in the day, but
again we are not confident about any isolated severe
thunderstorms. Some small sub-severe hail dime size or smaller
and gusty winds will be possible with a few cells. The
instability looks limited along with the low-level moisture for
more widespread coverage and a severe threat. We have kept pops
in the chc range in the afternoon with some likely values near
the west-central mohawk valley and western adirondacks where
some lake moisture will be tapped for a little more coverage.

Less coverage in terms of the showers and thunderstorms will be
south of the berkshires, northern catskills, and capital region.

H850 temps according to the latest GEFS will be close to 1 to 2
standard deviations cooler than normal. H850 temps fall off to
+7c to +11c from northwest to southeast across the forecast area
late in the day with short-wave and sfc trough passage. High
temps will generally be in the upper 60s to mid 70s over the
valleys and across the hills. A few upper 70s are possible in
the mid-hudson valley. Expect upper 50s to mid 60s over the
mountains. Humidity levels will be very comfortable for late
june with southwest to west winds of 10-15 mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Tonight... The short-wave lifts northeast across the forecast
area into northern and western new england. The isolated-
scattered showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly
between 8-11 pm. The skies will become partly cloudy. Another
cool night is expected with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
across the forecast area. The strong upper level trough and its
associated cold pool will be quickly approaching by daybreak
tue.

Tue-tue night... The h500 cold pool moves over the forecast area
with h500 temps of -20c to -23c. Low and mid level heights will
fall ahead of the upper low, and the differential cyclonic
vorticity advection will kick off instability showers and
thunderstorms in the late morning into the afternoon. Mid-level
lapse rates will remain steep coupled with SBCAPE values in the
250-900 j kg range due to sfc dewpts in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Wet-bulb zero heights will be in the 6-8 kft agl range. The
deep shear in the 0-6 km layer will weaken during the afternoon
to less than 40 kts north and west of the capital region but
stronger south and east . A strong mid and upper level jet axis
will remain over the region. Some small hail mainly penny size
or smaller will be possible as well as gusty winds, as the the
cold front and upper level trough axis moves across the region.

High temps will run about 5-10 degrees below normal with upper
60s to lower 70s common in the valley areas, with some mid and
upper 70s in the mid-hudson valley and NW ct. Upper 50s to mid
60s will be likely across the hills mtns. The showers and
thunderstorms decrease in coverage overnight with the loss of
the diurnal heating, as lows will be in the upper 40s to lower
50s under the cool upper low. In the h850 cold advection temps
will fall back to +6c to +10c.

Wed-wed night... The residual cold pool and a weak impulse in
the northwest flow associated with the upper low will still
focus a few showers and thunderstorms especially north and east
of the mohawk valley and capital region during the day. High
pressure will be attempting to ridge in from the mid atlantic
region. This day should not be a washout, and could end mostly
dry for the southern half or two thirds of the fcst area. High
temps will still run about 5 degrees or so below normal for late
june. Weak low and mid level ridging continues to be over the
region Wed night, but a warm front and a possible MCS may
approach from the great lakes region for thu. Lows will be
mainly in the 50s with increasing mid and high clouds towards
daybreak.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
After a stretch with cool temperatures and low humidity levels, the
long term period will feature rising temperatures and humidity along
with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

A cyclone is forecast to track eastward across the upper great lakes
on Thursday. A warm front associated with this system should move
across our area, bringing showers and some thunderstorms. The best
likelihood looks to be from around i-90 northward, but at least
scattered coverage expected even farther south. Much of the
instability will be elevated on Thursday, so stronger storms are not
anticipated. Humidity will noticeably increase by late in the day,
with late day high temperatures getting back to near normal.

Models still indicating potential for showers and a few storms
Thursday evening, but coverage should decrease by around late
evening. Thursday night will be the first of a string of warm muggy
nights through the upcoming weekend, with low temps mainly in the
60s.

Despite the lack of any significant cyclones and or boundaries
around on Friday, there could still be scattered showers and
thunderstorms around due to zonal flow aloft with embedded
disturbances moving through. With warm temps and dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s, it will not take much heating forcing to produce
diurnally driven scattered convection.

Saturday looks to be a potentially active convective day and will
have to be watched for strong to severe thunderstorms. A cyclone is
forecast to track near or north of the st. Lawrence river valley,
with a pre-frontal trough moving through our area during peak
heating time. Moderate to high instability may develop given
sufficient heating. It will remain humid, so gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall could occur with any storms.

Depending on the eventual timing, the actual cold front associated
with the quebec cyclone may result in additional showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday.

While there is at least a chance of showers and or thunderstorms in
virtually each period of the long term forecast, it will not be
raining the entire time. However, it should be stressed that anyone
with outdoor plans should stay informed and be ALERT for the
potential for thunderstorms.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Tranquil conditions this morning with mid level clouds gradually
developing. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon as an upper level trough
approaches from the west, mainly affecting the kgfl kalb kpsf
terminals. Will mention vcsh and prob30 groups spanning early
afternoon into the evening to account for possible multiple
rounds of scattered convective showers t-storms. Brief gusty
winds and MVFR ifr conditions will be possible with any
showers storms.

Showers and thunderstorm should end by midnight, with dry
conditions overnight. There is a chance for some fog
development at kgfl kpsf if skies sufficiently clear and rain
occurs today. Not enough confidence to mention in tafs just yet.

Winds will be west-southwest around 5 kt or less through much of
the morning, increasing to around 5-10 kt by this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
An upper level disturbance will move across the region today with
mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon into the early evening. An upper level low and a cold
front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday with cooler than normal temperatures. High pressure may
bring dry weather from the capital region south on Wednesday.

The rh values will lower to 35 to 65 percent across the region
today with the lower values across the mid-hudson valley and
northwest connecticut. Expect a near full recovery in the rh
values Tuesday morning in the 85 to 100 percent range and the
minimum rh values in the afternoon will be in the 35 to 60
percent range.

The winds will from the southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph today,
and 5 to 10 mph tonight. The winds will increase from the
southwest to northwest at 10 to 15 mph Tuesday with some gusts
in the 20 to 25 mph range.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrological problems are anticipated over the
next several days. Scattered showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected today through Tuesday, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours, as a series of disturbances
impact the region with an upper low. Basin average rainfall
amounts will generally be a tenth to a quarter of an inch in
some locations.

A brief period of mainly dry weather is expected most of
Wednesday into Wednesday night with ridging from the south. An
active pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with showers
and thunderstorms possible with increasing humidity levels.

Rainfall amounts will vary based on where any convection
occurs. The most widespread potential rainfall is expected
Thursday and Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Bgm wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 57 mi48 min 58°F 1016 hPa56°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY7 mi23 minN 015.00 miFair61°F53°F77%1016.3 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY15 mi27 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds61°F54°F78%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS7SW6SW8W4W12
G16
W12W8NW9
G15
W8W8NW6W6--------------------Calm
1 day agoW10W8
G16
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NW8NW8W5--------------------Calm
2 days agoCalmW3S3S7SE5S3CalmS7
G14
W8W6W6SW8
G16
SW8
G16
Calm--------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 01:40 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.1-0.20.82.54.15.25.85.84.93.62.41.40.3-0.6-0.40.82.33.54.34.74.33.32.3

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:13 PM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.3-0.30.82.64.15.15.75.54.53.22.11-0.1-0.8-0.50.92.33.44.24.54.132

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.