Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mariaville Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:23 PM EST (19:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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location: 42.83, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 161748
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1248 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will move into our region from the
great lakes today, bringing some light snow. Then, a developing
coastal low pressure system will emerge off the DELMARVA this
evening and track northeast to near CAPE cod Wednesday morning.

This system is expected to bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to
much of the region tonight into Wednesday.

Near term through Wednesday
Winter storm warning remains in effect for the northern and
central taconics, southern vermont, berkshires and litchfield
hills this evening into Wednesday afternoon...

winter weather advisory remains in effect for the rest of
eastern new york today into Wednesday afternoon...

as of 1248 pm est... Areas of light snow will continue across
the area through this afternoon, as weak low pressure approaches
from the lower great lakes. This light snowfall is occurring
thanks to persistent warm air advection within the broad SW flow
aloft ahead of an approaching positively tilted trough. The
snow is fairly spotty in nature and hasn't brought much
accumulation to the region so far, with most areas seeing an
inch or less, although there have been some localized higher
totals in the upslope favored areas on the northside of the
mohawk valley into the sacandaga area of about 2-3 inches.

The light snow will be more prevalent for areas south and east
of albany during the afternoon early evening, due to the SW to
ne orientation of the upper trough and forcing associated with
the thermal advection. Additional accumulation this afternoon
will continue to be fairly light (an additional inch or less for
most). Still, this light snow will affect the evening commutes
with some slippery travel on untreated roads with temperatures
in the 20s to near 30.

More substantial snowfall is then expected starting this
evening into tonight, as a coastal low pressure system is
forecast to emerge off the DELMARVA and track northeast along a
baroclinic zone close to the nj long island coast. At the same
time, the positive tilt mid upper level trough will migrate
eastward across the lower great lakes and ohio tennessee
valleys. Model QPF varies, but are in generally good agreement
with the track of the coastal low. The ECMWF continues to
indicate greater widespread QPF compared to other sources of
guidance, but details due to terrain enhancement and shadowing
are more apparent in higher-resolution guidance such as the 3km
nam and href. So the highest confidence in warning level snows
are across western new england into the north central taconics
of ny, thus we will continue with the winter storm watch warning.

We are also expecting some mesoscale banding to potentially
develop overnight into early Wednesday morning with the pattern
closely resembling a laterally quasi-stationary band from recent
cstar research. Nam GFS continue to depict the area of greatest
850-700mb f-gen along coastal areas, which would imply banding
to set up to the north and west of the f-gen based on the cstar
research. Hi-res guidance not overly apparent in forecasting
mesoscale banding, but this will be something to keep an eye on.

For now, we will mention up to 1 inch per hour snowfall rates
in the warning area with 6-9 inches total snow in a 12-18 hour
time frame, but these totals would have to be raised should a
quasi-stationary band develop.

Outside of the warning area, we will maintain the winter
weather advisories for totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow from
around the capital district south and east across the catskills,
mid hudson valley and southern taconics. Light snowfall from
today included in these amounts, thus these totals will occur
over a 24-30 hour duration so we will hold with the advisory.

Generally 3-6 inches is forecast for areas north and west of the
capital district.

The morning commute Wednesday will be affected by the snow, as
moderate to heavy snow will still be falling, especially from
around the capital district south and east as the coastal low
approaches the CAPE cod area. Again, we will have to watch for
potential mesoscale banding, which would enhance snowfall rates
and storm totals. The warning advisory will go through mid-
afternoon Wednesday with the snow expected to end from west to
east. The steady snow should end before the evening commute
Wednesday, with just a few leftover snow showers possible.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
A small ridge of high pressure will build in Wednesday night
providing mainly dry conditions. However, due to well aligned
westerly flow and borderline conditional lake induced
instability, there will be some lake effect snow showers across
the western adirondacks. Any accumulations should be light, with
shallow inversion heights of only around 850 mb are expected.

Temperatures will be near normal, with lows in the single digits
and teens.

Similar conditions should prevail on Thursday, with a flat
ridge in place and a westerly flow continuing. Again, some light
lake effect snow showers may affect the western adirondacks,
but dry conditions should prevail elsewhere. Snow showers may be
a bit more enhanced with greater coverage Thursday night across
the western southern adirondacks, as a fast-moving short wave
trough is expected to move through. Still, only minor
accumulations are forecast with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.

Temperatures will remain near normal during this time.

Long term Friday through Monday
Gradual upper ridging building into the region into the
beginning of next week. Intervals of clouds Friday trending to
mostly cloudy by Sunday as warm advection strengthens. Strong
upper energy approaches Monday with rain moving in Sunday night,
expanding in coverage Monday.

Temperatures are a bit uncertain as some guidance has stronger
upper ridging than other guidance, which will determine where a
west-east oriented boundary layer thermal gradient sets up, just
north, across or just south of our region. Too far out in time
to know for sure, so blending guidance temperatures until we get
closer to next week. There could be some mixed precipitation
Sunday night before the strongest warm advection spreads into
the region Monday.

Highs Friday in the 30s with some mid to upper 20s northern
areas. Highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s but mid to upper 30s
northern areas. Highs Monday in the 40s with upper 40s south
and lower 40s north.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As a weak storm approaches from the great lakes, light snow has
been intermittent across the region so far today, which has
allowed for variable flying conditions. Periods of light
snowfallhave dropped visibility to 2 to 5 miles at times,
otherwise, it has been p6sm. Ceilings generally have been 3000
to 5000 ft for most sites, although lower ceilings have been
occurring at kpsf due to the interaction of the southwest flow
with the higher terrain. Winds will be calm or very light from a
southerly direction through the remainder of the day. Will
continue to allow tempos through this afternoon for ifr
conditions, but it will probably beVFR MVFR for much of the
time.

By this evening, snowfall will become steadier and more
widespread, allowing for ifr conditions to become predominate
after 22z-00z, as a coastal storm starts to take shape. All
sites will see snowfall through the overnight hours, with the
heaviest snowfall after midnight through about sunrise, allowing
for visibility as low as 3 4sm (especially at kpou kpsf). Winds
will continue to be fairly light and variable overnight,
eventually become westerly towards sunrise.

Snowfall will be tapering off by the mid-morning hours, allowing
for visibility to improve. However, some lingering clouds could
still allow for MVFR CIGS through the late morning hours. Winds
will switch to the northwest and increase to around 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering
issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in
place due to the continued cold temperatures expected over the
next few days. Warmer weather is not expected until the weekend.

In terms of precipitation, a moderate snowfall is expected for
much of the area from today into Wednesday, with heavy snowfall
from the northern and central taconics eastward across western
new england.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 3 pm est
Wednesday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est Wednesday for nyz032-
033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084.

Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 3 pm est
Wednesday for nyz054-061.

Ma... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 3 pm est
Wednesday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 3 pm est
Wednesday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Jpv
near term... Frugis jpv
short term... Jpv
long term... Nas
aviation... Frugis
hydrology... 11 jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 57 mi53 min 30°F 1030 hPa26°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY7 mi33 minN 02.00 miLight Snow27°F23°F86%1029.5 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY15 mi32 minSSE 67.00 miLight Snow29°F21°F72%1030.4 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------E3NE3NE4Calm----------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago------N4----N4--------------------NE4NE5NE7NE4--NE4N3
2 days ago--W20
G30
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--W16
G25
W13
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--------------------W10NW10W6NW8NW7W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 04:34 AM EST     4.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     5.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:40 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.62.63.544.13.52.72.11.40.60.10.623.44.55.35.65.14.13.12.110

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     5.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.62.63.43.93.93.22.41.81.10.3-00.623.44.55.25.44.83.82.81.80.7-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.