Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 11:13 PM   Moonset 7:02 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 261058 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 658 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered over the region this morning will gradually shift east off the New England coast through tonight, bringing continued dry and cool weather. A warm front approaching from the west will move across the area and may bring some showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
No significant changes with this update. Made some minor adjustments based on current obs.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0315]...After a cold start to the day with temperatures in the 20s and 30s, a large area of high pressure centered over our region this morning will gradually south/east into southern New England this afternoon. Subsidence associated with the high will continue to bring abundant sunshine. With a very dry air mass still in place (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) and strong April sun, temperatures will rebound into the 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable.

With high pressure centered just south/east off the New England coast tonight, a slight southerly flow will develop tonight, with some warming aloft as well. So while temperatures will not be as cold as the previous few nights, it will still be chilly with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Skies should remain mostly clear, with just some high level cirrus clouds moving in towards early Sat morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on Sat, while surface high pressure remains positioned south/east of New England. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through much of the day. A warm front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon, and perhaps a few light showers late in the day for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Forecast soundings indicate a significant wedge of dry air in the low levels, so most of any showers aloft should evaporate. High temperatures are expected warm to normal levels (lower/mid 60s in valleys) as the air mass continues to moderate with mostly sunny skies through the morning and at least partial sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will increase with gusts of 15-20 mph developing in the afternoon.

The upper ridge axis will to shift east into New England Sat night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the region Sat night. Along with a possible weak disturbance moving through, this should result in scattered to numerous showers developing. Will also mention isolated thunder west of the Hudson Valley, as some there will be some elevated instability present above a developing low-level inversion. With the clouds and showers around, lows will be milder mainly in the 40s.

Milder temperatures are expected on Sunday as the warm front lifts north of the region and upper level heights start to build again. However, some guidance has trended cooler as the upper ridge axis will be positioned to our west and a possible weak disturbance may spill over the ridge with extra cloud cover and a few showers possible. Will mention slightly cooler temperatures compared to the previous forecast, but still relatively mild with 60s to lower 70s for highs. Confidence in precip chances is low at this time, but much of the day could still end up dry.

Upper ridging looks to become better established Sun night, with solid 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. As a strong surface high tracks east into northern Quebec, ridging extending southward may push a cold front into at least northern parts of our region. Will monitor trends for possible showers and cooler temperatures associated with this front, but will continue to forecast mainly dry conditions and mild temperatures for now with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Periods of showers and potentially some thunderstorms riddle the extended forecast period as multiple disturbances impact the region....

The extended forecast period opens with primarily dry conditions Monday outside of a few isolated to scattered, diurnally-driven showers along a back door cold front passing through the region as its parent low pressure system moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Aloft, the axis of a mid- to upper-level ridge builds across the region, allowing a mild airmass to remain in place. However, with northwesterly flow at the apex of the ridge cutting off the advection of warmer air to our south and west and weak cold air advection from the cool fropa, high temperatures Monday will likely not reach their previously anticipated summer-like magnitude. That's not to say that Monday's highs will not be on the warm side for late April, however, as the forecast of upper 60s to upper 70s remains within 2-3 STDVs above normal according to the latest NAEFS.

Though spatial spread remains a bit uncertain, latest guidance indicates that showers will then begin to overspread the region from west to east late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning as a warm front approaches the region. As the warm front makes progress through the region through Tuesday morning, eastern New York and western New England will become wedged into the warm sector ahead of an impending cold front. Showers will continue throughout the day Tuesday with some embedded thunderstorms possible as medium to long term guidance indicates modest instability across portions of the region. It is too early to determine the strength of any developing convection, but any thunderstorms that develop will likely dissipate come Tuesday night with the loss of diurnal heating decreasing instability.
And while timing discrepancies exist surrounding the dissipation of showers, medium to long range guidance indicates lingering precipitation into at least Wednesday morning. Tuesday's highs will be slightly cooler than Monday's with temperatures looking to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

A brief break in shower activity comes Wednesday as a surface high ridges in from the southwest. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with pockets of low 60s in high terrain areas. Shower chances increase once again towards the end of the week with yet another frontal system looking to impact the region. However, uncertainty surrounding the evolution of this system subsequently gives low confidence in the impacts for our forecast area. For now, mentioned scattered to chance PoPs throughout the region through the end of the week. High temperatures during this time will cool off a bit in comparison to the beginning of the period with highs expected to be in the low to upper 60s Thursday with pockets of 50s above 1500 ft and 50s and 60s likely on Friday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12Z Saturday...High pressure remains dominant across the region, making for clear skies. Terminals, therefore, continue to maintain VFR conditions. Such flight rules will remain status quo throughout the 12z TAF period with dry conditions and a light, variable breeze. Sustained speeds will range from 2-4 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:37 AM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Albany
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Fri -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:29 AM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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