Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Mariaville Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:39PM Friday June 23, 2017 6:07 AM EDT (10:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:02AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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location: 42.83, -74.06     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 230833
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
433 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Warm and humid weather is in store today into tonight along
with periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce locally heavy rainfall. Saturday will see a drying trend
behind a cold frontal passage. Seasonable temperatures on Sunday
with perhaps a few showers or a thunderstorm over northern
portions of the forecast area.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 am, current radar composite shows an extensive area
of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front extending from
near omaha into lower michigan. This activity is also downstream
of a deep upper trough rotating into the western great lakes as
seen on water vapor imagery. Further east, another area of
showers and thunderstorms that had developed earlier around
western lake erie along a low-level warm front is pushing across
lake ontario and into the southern adirondacks. Otherwise, flat
upper ridging is in place over the local forecast area.

Moisture associated with TC cindy is streaming northward and
being entrained into the upper-level flow per water vapor
imagery. At the surface, moister air characterized by dewpoints
in the mid-60s to lower 70s is located across central new york
and points south within the warm sector. The diffuse surface
warm front is currently pushing across the local forecast area,
but with the upper ridging and still a fair amount of low-level
dry air evident on the 00z kaly sounding, much of the forecast
area remains dry at this hour.

As we go on through the day, a progressively warmer and moister
airmass will creep into the region behind the warm front. Pwats
increasing to 1.75-2.00 inches, freezing levels at 15-16 kft,
and 700 850 mb dewpoints around 5 15c respectively, are all
toward the top end of the sounding climatology for this time of
year. This points to the threat of heavy rainfall within any
thunderstorms that can develop. The problem, though, appears to
be with a lack of forcing within the warm sector, which could
limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. There does
appear to be a low-amplitude disturbance lifting through during
the late morning into early afternoon hours that could set off
some activity. Activity may be more widespread across the
southern adirondacks as well, closer to the front low-level
theta-e gradient. Will have to watch for potential of storms to
train near this boundary, although current indications are that
it will push far enough north for this not to be a big problem.

The other aspect to discuss is the severe weather potential.

Moderately strong midlevel flow will contribute to bulk shear
values of 25 to 40 kt. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but with
surface dewpoints approaching 70f and temperatures warming into
the low to mid-80s, could see pockets of mlcape AOA 1 j g.

These parameters could result in marginally severe cells with
the main threat being damaging winds. The limiting factor will
be coverage of storms given the lack of forcing, as well as a
good amount of cloud cover possibly inhibiting instability. Spc
marginal risk for severe weather looks good.

Forcing for ascent increases tonight with slightly better upper
height falls approaching along with the surface cold front. Pwat
values remain high with some moisture pooling along the front -
gfs and NAM depicting 2-2.25 inches around 03z. Severe weather
threat would seem to wane with the loss of diurnally generated
instability, but heavy rainfall will still be a threat given the
increase in forcing and the moist atmosphere. Still, not enough
signal to go with a flash flood watch, but will continue to
mention heavy rainfall potential in the hwo. Coverage of showers
and storms will decrease late from northwest to southeast behind
the cold front. A very mild night in store especially from the
capital district southward.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Some showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday morning
especially across portions of the catskills, mid-hudson valley,
and NW ct as the front will still be passing through those
areas. A drying trend will occur with pwats dropping to below
0.75 by 18z, and dewpoints falling into the 50s to lower 60s.

Highs will be near seasonal normals. A mainly clear to partly
cloudy and dry night is in store Saturday night.

Sunday, a rather strong shortwave trough will approach the
forecast area, rotating through the longwave trough that sets
up over much of the eastern us. This forcing could be enough to
touch off a few showers despite the dry airmass. Forecast
soundings show some shallow instability, so could hear a rumble
of thunder or two. Best chance for showers is north of i-90.

Another disturbance could generate a few showers at night as
well, though coverage should be somewhat limited with the lack
of the diurnal contribution to instability. Low temps will be
cooler than recent days, likely a bit below seasonal normals.

Long term Monday through Thursday
A mean longwave mid and upper level trough will be over the
eastern CONUS for early in the week. Guidance is in general
agreement the trough sharpens as a short wave moves about the
base of the trough Tuesday and it becomes neutrally tilted as
it exits and moves off the coast by mid week. As a result our
weather will be unsettled. Do have the mention of thunder during
the afternoon into the evening hours as instability develops
with the heating of the day. The better chances for storms
are expected on Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to run
5 to about 10 degrees below normal with highs generally from
the lower 60s to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday with lows in
upper 40s to mid 50s.

Models indicates some ridging should begin to build in Wednesday.

However, it should be brief as the flow flattens as short waves
approach and pass to our north Thursday. The longwave pattern
is expected to amplify again as a trough develops over the
northern plains into the great lakes region. Temperatures are
should moderate back to near normal by Thursday.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front will continue to move lift across region early
this morning. With its passage a humid and warm airmass will be
ushered in. With the area in the warm sector and short waves
moving through flow there will be rounds of convection through
the TAF period. It is a tough forecast to determine the timing
at the individual TAF sites. Have addressed chances with tempo
and prob30 groups in tafs. MainlyVFR conditions are expected
through much of the day; MVFR conditions will occur with
convection with brief ifr possible. Widespread MVFR conditions
are expected to develop by late in the day as heights begin to
fall as the approaching trough deepens to our west.

A calm to very light southerly flow expected to for the overnight.

Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts in
the teens to about 25 knots. The flow is expected to shift more
to the southwest and decrease some in the evening.

Winds stronger in and near thunderstorms.


Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: slight chance of shra.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
Warmer and more humid conditions will return today, along with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which
may produce locally heavy rainfall. The showers and
thunderstorms should continue tonight, before gradually
tapering off Saturday as a cold front moves through and south of
the region. Another upper level disturbance could trigger a
passing shower or thunderstorm Sunday.

Minimum rh values today will be around 60 to 70 percent. A drier
airmass will allow rh values to drop to 40 to 50 percent on

Winds today will be south to southwest and increase to around
10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Winds Saturday
will be from the west at 10 to mph kt with gusts to 25 mph.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread today into
tonight as a frontal system gradually moves across the area. It
will become more humid, so there is the potential for locally
heavy rainfall today into tonight. Some urban poor drainage
flooding and isolated flash flooding will be possible with
thunderstorms. Basin average rainfall forecast to be around a
half to three quarters of an inch, but locally higher amounts
will occur in thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy downpours may linger into Saturday morning from
the capital region and points south and east.

Mainly dry weather then expected for Saturday afternoon with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday
into Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our

Kgfl airport observation has been intermittently missing again
as technicians continue to troubleshoot. We will continue to
monitor and update this statement as needed.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Kl thompson
hydrology... Kl thompson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 57 mi97 min 74°F 1009 hPa67°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY15 mi76 minS 810.00 miOvercast73°F63°F71%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------CalmCalm--CalmNW6W4W7NW6N6SW4CalmS4SE4CalmCalm
1 day ago----------------------------------------------Calm
2 days ago------------------SW7W9W13

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Fri -- 11:57 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:41 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Fri -- 11:48 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.