Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mariaville Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:49PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:24 PM EDT (03:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:50AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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location: 42.83, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 220242
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1042 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
Warm and humid conditions will prevail tonight as high pressure
continues to move east of the mid atlantic region. It will be hot
and muggy tomorrow with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Showers, along with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
are expected during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a
strong cold front. Cooler and less humid air will move into the
region for Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions expected for the
rest of the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 1042 pm edt... The isolated showers and thunderstorms over
central ny just west of the eastern catskills weakened and
dissipated shortly after sunset with the loss of the diurnal
heating. The slight chc pops for isolated showers thunderstorms
were removed south and west of albany. Some leftover cirrus and
mid level clouds drifted through the region based on the latest
ir imagery. The latest 3-km hrrr supports a dry overnight
period.

The rest of the night time should be warm and humid with the
boundary layer winds increasing out of the south with the sfc
high drifting off the mid atlantic coast. The sfc winds will be
decoupling in many locations with some patchy and locally dense
radiative mist or fog forming in the major river valleys. Some
low stratus may form and drift up the hudson river valley well
after midnight especially based on the NAM bufkit profiles. We
have kept the cloud cover partly cloudy to account for this.

Lows tonight will be mainly in the mid to upper 60s with a few
70f readings in the mid-hudson river valley. Some slightly
cooler readings are likely in the lower 60s over the southern
adirondacks and southern vt.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday
A strong upper level trough will be digging from south-central
canada across the great lakes, bringing a surface cold front
through the ohio valley into new england. Ahead of this
boundary, a surface pre-frontal trough will help kick off some
showers and thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours.

These showers storms will track eastward across our area by
later in the afternoon and through the evening hours.

Strong south-southwesterly flow will allow for another
unseasonably warm and humid day, with highs well into the 80s
and dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. Some locations might even
hit the 90 degree mark. It looks like quite a breezy day as
well as the latest GEFS indicates that the 850 mb u-component of
the wind is 2-4 standard deviations above normal. GEFS also
shows pwats 2-3 standard deviations above normal. These warm
temperatures along with a moist environment and strong southerly
winds should allow for at least a moderate amount of
instability tomorrow afternoon evening. The nam12 is more
bullish with CAPE in excess of 2k but also shows dewpoints in
the lower 70s. The GFS still shows moderate CAPE around 1-1.5k
across our western zones with even higher instability west of
the forecast area. Even though there is still model
disagreement on the amount of instability, there still looks
like there will be plenty for storms to tap into. Additionally,
with strong upper level dynamics approaching, 0-6 km bulk shear
will be reaching around 40 kts, so the ingredients are coming
together for some stronger storms tomorrow afternoon evening.

One mitigating factor will be that mid-level lapse rates will be
fairly weak (generally 6 deg km or less), but the combo of
instability shear should allow for some storm organization. The
main threat will be gusty winds, but with pwats reaching around
two inches, will also have to watch for some locally heavy
downpours and isolated flash flooding as well.

The storms may linger into the first part of tomorrow night,
but should be ending from west to east as the front crosses the
area, as lows fall into the 60s.

On Wednesday, dewpoints will be falling during the day, as much
cooler and drier air moves into the area. Highs will generally
be in the 70s with a partly sunny sky. There still may be a
lingering shower due to the passing upper level trough, but most
areas should be dry. Skies should continue to clear out by
Wednesday night, as lows fall into the upper 40s to upper 50s,
as high pressure builds into the area.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The extended forecast continues to feature a mean longwave trough
over the region with high pressure building in at the sfc with
mainly fair and dry weather with temps slightly below normal for late
august.

Wed night into thu... A broad upper level trough will be over
southeastern canada, the great lakes region, and the northeast. The
latest GEFS has h500 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations below
normal. Initially, some lake enhanced isolated showers tapping lake
ontario moisture will impact the western adirondacks Wed night.

Variable cloudiness and cool temps are expected with h850 temps
falling back to +6c to +10c from northwest to southeast across the
forecast area. Lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50f over the
mountains, and lower to mid 50s in the valleys. A short-wave
associated with the upper level low and a sfc trough will focus some
isolated to scattered showers especially west of the hudson river
valley, and over the higher terrain. It will be cool and breezy with
highs in the lower to mid 70s over many of the valley locations with
a few upper 70s in the mid-hudson valley and NW ct, and 60s to
around 70f over the hills and mountains.

Thu night through into Sat night... A large dome of canadian high
pressure builds in from ontario and the western great lakes region
thu night into fri. The strong subsidence associated with the broad
sfc anticyclone will yield fair and dry weather to close the week
and enter the weekend. The sfc high shifts eastward over s-cntrl
quebec and the northeast by Saturday night. Slightly cooler than
normal temps and comfortable humidity levels are expected. The 12z
gefs h850 temps are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal. Lows
will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs Friday and
Saturday will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s in the valley areas,
and lower to upper 60s over the higher terrain.

Sunday into Monday... The 12z GFS and ECMWF both show some short-wave
energy swinging around the h500 upper low over the northeast and
southeast canada on Sunday. A few instability showers could pop up
over the southern greens and the southern adirondacks. The low-
level moisture profiles are not impressive. We placed a slight
chance of showers in for those locations, otherwise high pressure
builds back in from the great lakes region Sunday night into Monday,
and low and mid level heights begin to rise. Temps continue to be
slightly below normal by a few degrees late in the weekend into
early next week. Humidity levels continue to be comfortable with sfc
dewpts in the 40s to 50s.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure continues to move east of the mid atlantic region
tonight. A cold front will slowly approach from the eastern
great lakes region tomorrow with a prefrontal trough focusing
showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the early
evening.

Vfr conditions early this evening with sct-bkn cirrus around
due to some dissipating convection over central ny. Some mid
level clouds may also move into kpou. A southerly flow will
continue in the boundary layer tonight advecting in higher
dewpoint air, and with the skies mostly clear and the sfc winds
decoupling we are expecting some mist and fog to develop
especially at kgfl and kpsf. We have forecasted lifr ifr
conditions at these sites. Our confidence was not as great at
kpou and kalb, as some stratus may develop and move up the
hudson river valley tomorrow morning. We have placed some MVFR
stratus at kpou at 1.5 kft agl, and kept it scattered at kalb
but with vsbys at 3sm for both sites.

The mist fog or low stratus should gradually burn off between
12z-14z. At kpsf, the stratus may linger at the MVFR levels the
longest in terms of cigs. The southerly winds will increase at
the sfc and the prefrontal trough thunderstorms are possible in
the afternoon. We have used a prob30 group for the possibility
of thunderstorms as early as 18z at kgfl, 19z at kalb kpsf, and
20z at kpou. The convection may linger into the evening at some
of these sites. Later TAF issuances will narrow in on the time
period. Expect MVFR or brief lapses to ifr lifr conditions with
any thunderstorms.

The winds will be south at around 5 kts at kalb tonight, but
will become light and variable at 4 kts or less or calm at
kpou kpsf kgfl. The winds will increase from the south at 5-9
kts in the late morning, and be 9-15 kts during the afternoon
with some gusts in the 20-25 kts range especially at
kalb kpsf kgfl.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Most areas will see showers or thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon
and evening thanks to a cold front and strong upper level trough
passing through the area. Min rh on Tuesday will only be 50 to
65 percent with south winds at 10 to 20 mph. Rh values will
recover to near 100 percent tonight and tomorrow night with some
patchy fog possible tonight.

Hydrology
Dry weather is expected through tomorrow morning across the
region. An approaching cold front will allow for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally
heavy downpours and could lead to isolated flash flooding.

The locally heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding of
urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Behind this frontal
system, mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week.

Basin average rainfall on Tuesday will generally be around a
half of an inch to an inch, although point totals may be
higher. This rainfall will only allow for minor rises on rivers
and streams. River and stream levels should quickly recede by
Wednesday and then remain steady for the rest of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Equipment
The kenx radar will likely be down through at least Friday,
september 1st for the bull gear replacement. We are waiting for
a roc maintenance team and parts to arrive to assist local
technicians with the repairs.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jvm wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Snd frugis jvm
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Frugis jvm
hydrology... Frugis jvm
equipment... WFO aly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 57 mi54 min 71°F 1018 hPa65°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY7 mi94 minSSW 310.00 miFair73°F68°F83%0 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY15 mi33 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------Calm----S3S4S4--S5--S3SW3S6S3S3S3
1 day ago------------------W6W6--W6W10W7W13NW10
G14
--W8W8----Calm--
2 days ago------------------SW3CalmW6W6W8NW8NW8W9--W9----CalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 05:46 PM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.312.644.95.55.24.33.22.21-0.2-0.8-0.21.22.53.64.44.6432.11.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:05 AM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.31.12.744.95.3542.91.90.7-0.5-0.9-0.21.22.53.54.34.43.72.71.80.9-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.