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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 139 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Overnight - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 200626 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 226 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like warmth today through mid-week with a chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm well inland form the lakes. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday into Thursday with the arrival of a cold front. Dry and cooler Thursday night through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Some patchy for will be possible overnight. Other than that dry weather to continue with lows in the 50s to around 60F.

Summer-like warmth starts today. The mid-level ridge and sfc high will slide east to the coast. Still looking like most locales will stay dry but a shower or storm will still be possible on lake breeze boundary during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Dry weather to continue for all locales tonight. Mild night with lows found in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A convectively enhanced shortwave cutting through the mid-level ridge may introduce a shower or thunderstorm by Tuesday morning.
After that...this feature may also help to induce a few more storms inland from the lakes in the afternoon during peak heating.

Otherwise...another unseasonably mild day with mercury readings firmly in the 80s. We might even see a few 90F in the Genesee Valley.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will support showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from west to east. Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable timing some storms may have the potential of becoming well developed, as there will be plenty of instability with CAPE values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates reach upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of +150 m^2/s^2.
Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into Wednesday night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise expect another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Cold front will be exiting our region Thursday, with a much drier airmass settling into the region. A reinforcing secondary cold front will lower 850 hPa temperatures into the mid single digits by Friday morning, that with light winds should allow for mid 40s Thursday night well inland, to around 50 near the Lakes.

High pressure will bring a dry start to the Memorial Day weekend with moderating temperatures back to and above normal. There is a potential hiccup, and that is for a potential return flow of low level moisture that will bring clouds and light showers to the region later Saturday and Saturday night as advertised by the 12Z GFS and some of the ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF. For now will have slight chance PoPs until better agreement of this potential return flow low level moisture by the models. The next system/shortwave of note that will bring showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west later Sunday or Monday. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with this feature, in part due to the uncertainty in the timeframe ahead of it.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will give way to IFR in fog at some terminals overnight into this morning.

Pockets of IFR fog will diminish giving way to widespread VFR conditions with light winds today. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible but likely will not impact terminals.

Tonight...VFR expected at all area terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.

Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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