Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:48PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 6:18 PM EST (23:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1228 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est through late Thursday night...
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of light snow early, then light snow likely late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Light snow and light rain in the evening, then light rain and light freezing rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of light rain in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain showers during the day, then snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 10 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201902202215;;239470 FZUS51 KBUF 201728 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1228 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-202215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Beach, NY
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location: 42.85, -77.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 202134
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
434 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A light wintry mix of precipitation will continue to develop
over the area through the evening but gradually transition to
rain overnight as warmer air arrives. This will wind down
Thursday as a cold front slides through the area. High pressure
will return for the rest of the work week before a much stronger
system arrives this weekend. Rain will be common by Saturday
night before a very strong cold front ushers in much colder air
for next week on the heels of likely damaging winds behind the
front.

Near term through Thursday
The first wave of upper level moisture is already sagging to the
southeast of the area early this afternoon as the flow of gulf
of mexico moisture really never penetrated much into the area
outside of the southern tier. In this area, some light snow has
developed... And even likely a bit of wintry mix near wellsville,
but with the moisture tap sagging southeastward and the mid-
level dry slot encroaching from the west, precipitation will
likely continue to be exceedingly light through the afternoon.

In the mid-level dry slot that is advancing northeastward
through the central into the eastern great lakes, precipitation
is largely very light with scattered reports of light snow,
sleet, and freezing drizzle. This will be the regime we find
ourselves in for much of the remainder of the afternoon and
evening with weak forcing and saturation resulting in scattered
light wintry mix as temperatures slowly increase in warm
advection. In fact, many areas in downslope southeasterly flow
off the chautauqua ridge along the lake erie shore are already
above freezing as of 2 pm. This area is likely to expand up the
shore toward buffalo through the evening, which will largely
preclude icing in this area. Farther inland, this process will
take much longer, however. Because of this regime, winter
weather advisories for icing have been cancelled for the buffalo
and niagara falls areas while maintained inland in the more
difficult to mix out valleys.

A deeper wave associated with the upper low over the western
great lakes will approach for late this evening and early
overnight, bringing a much better chance of precipitation. This
will come in and usher above freezing temperatures from west to
east across the area. As it is coming in, areas will probably
trend from freezing rain to a cold rain, ending the threat for
further icing and allowing the winter weather advisories to
expire.

A cold front slices through the area on Thursday with some gusty
winds in its wake. Temperatures will likely MAX out early in the
day as cold advection starts. So with little upward temperature
mobility and gusts to 35 mph or so, it will feel colder than it
likely will be for much of Thursday.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Generally zonal flow and slowly rising mid level heights through
Friday night, as weak upper ridging and accompanying surface high
pressure slide through the region. This pattern will ensure dry
weather across the region. The only exception may be early Thursday
night as some lingering light precipitation will be possible east of
lake ontario, primarily focused on the higher terrain of the
adirondacks.

The respite from precipitation will come to an end later Saturday
and Saturday night. A dynamic upper level wave trough will track
through northern mexico on Friday, with rapid cyclogenesis taking
place over the central plains on Saturday. It looks like some
additional upper level energy coming out of the pacific northwest
will help deepen the storm to 980 mb or lower as the system tracks
through the upper midwest to the western great lakes through
Saturday night.

As this occurs, a significant amount of moisture will be transported
northward back into the eastern great lakes. While the day on
Saturday for the most part looks dry, clouds will increase and
thicken from the south during the course of day. Some patchy light
rain could reach far western new york by the end of the day. A
milder day is expected with temperatures warming into the 40s,
perhaps nearing 50f over the western counties.

Rain will eventually overspread the entire region Saturday night as
low level moisture transport accompanies a northward moving warm
front.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Widespread damaging winds likely Sunday...

a very strong storm system will move across the central great lakes
and into quebec Sunday-Sunday night. Model guidance continues to
show a favored track for western and north central ny to receive
widespread high, damaging winds. The past few model runs of the gfs
has lowered the central pressure to 974mb as it tracks to the
northwest, which is now close to the ecmwf. With these two global
models in good agreement, this far out, confidence is moderate-high
that the region should see a high wind event Sunday-Sunday night.

Going into the details, a mid-level trough with a 1.5 mb pv
intrusion will be following the strong surface low pressure as it
cuts the great lakes. This will cause the low to slow its deepening
process as it moves into eastern canada. This won't really matter in
the potential for high winds as a strong low-level jet will already
be across western ny by Sunday morning. The core of the low-level
jet will likely move across western ny and into north-central ny by
afternoon. At this point, a cold front will be moving across the
region while southwest 925-850mb winds align. Strong subsidence with
lapse rates around 9 deg c km will mix gusts to 55 to 65 mph
starting at some point Sunday and continuing into the evening. This
prolonged period of strong gusts will cause widespread wind damage
if they pan out. Please keep in mind though that at this point... It
is only a forecast... Albeit one with increasing confidence. It will
be important to stay tuned to updated forecasts and possible
statements headlines as we progress through the rest of the week. As
a side note... The front will be accompanied by some showers on
Sunday... Mainly ahead of it... And then several hours after it moves
through.

Winds will remain strong into Monday morning as the 6hr pressure
change between the exiting strong low pressure to the north and the
approaching high pressure is on the order of 10-12 mb. Gusts of 40-
50 mph will likely continue into Monday. Cold air will also being
moving into the region at this time and snow showers are expected
with lake enhancement south-southeast of both lakes. Minor
accumulations are expected at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal Sunday-Sunday night before cold
air advection brings temperatures below-normal for much of next
week.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Light wintry mix has moved into the southern tier and while all
percipition should remain light, some of this should develop in
a scattered fashion at the other sites through the evening as
temperature run up toward and above freezing. This will allow
all precipitation to transition to rain and drizzle overnight as
cigs fall off to low MVFR. Gusty winds will return on Thursday
from the wsw, bringing visibilities back up eve as CIGS remain
MVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered rain or snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.

Monday...VFR MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Marine
The center of a storm system will cut through the central great
lakes tonight, with southeast winds veering to southwesterly
tonight. While these winds will keep the higher waves over the
canadian waters, the winds may flirt with small craft thresholds
later today and tonight. Thursday these southwest winds will
increase further, and will place SCA on the lakes today through
Thursday night. Winds will also reach low end SCA on the niagara
river later tonight and tomorrow.

A powerful storm system will cut through the central great lakes
Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will
produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, with storm force
wind gusts likely.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for nyz003>005-
012>014-019>021-085.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
nyz002-011.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Thursday for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday
for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Friday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday
for loz045.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries
short term... Tma
long term... Hsk rsh
aviation... Fries
marine... Fries


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 34 mi78 min SE 14 G 17 31°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 35 mi48 min 31°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi48 min SE 16 G 23 27°F 1020.5 hPa20°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY18 mi25 minSSE 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast29°F24°F82%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4SW4CalmCalmSW4SW3CalmSW6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4CalmSE13S5S7SE10SE13SE11S14
G19
1 day agoW7W5SW5SW5W55W6W8W6W6W7W7SW6SW6SW5W6NW9NW9NW11W6NW7CalmCalmE3
2 days agoNE34N3CalmN3CalmN33N34N5NW3NW6NW6NW9
G17
NW65
G14
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G18
NW10NW10NW12NW6NW7NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.