Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:45PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:35 AM EST (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers early. A chance of rain showers after midnight, then rain showers likely late. Waves 7 to 11 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811170400;;418995 FZUS51 KBUF 170231 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-170400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Beach, NY
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location: 42.85, -77.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 170939
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
439 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
Lake effect showers will continue east of primarily lake ontario
this morning, with a few flurries or very light freezing rain east
of lake erie. Otherwise, abundant cloud cover will remain with
temperatures near freezing. A weak disturbance will move across the
region later today which may bring a little light snowfall to the
area, but otherwise, expect dry conditions lasting into Sunday as
surface high pressure moves into western new york. A few more minor
periods of showers will be possible early next week, but dry weather
is expected for thanksgiving.

Near term through tonight
A winter weather advisory is in effect this morning for the
western southern tier counties along with wyoming and southern
erie county. This is due to the potential for freezing
rain drizzle though the morning across these areas. This is due
to low level moisture separated from the snow growth region by a
layer of dry air above ~800 mb.

Lake effect rain and snow showers off of lake ontario are continuing
early this morning where a winter weather advisory is in effect
through the morning. Additional snow accumulations across the higher
terrain of the tug hill should only be around an inch or two this
morning. Other than the potential for freezing drizzle rain off of
lake erie, a few light lake effect snow showers will be possible
this morning. Current temperatures this morning are in the mid to
upper 30s for most areas, the exception being areas of higher
terrain are close to freezing.

Light lake effect snow that may briefly mix with rain in the
warmer locations will continue today off of both lakes, with
lake ontario producing slightly better snow amounts than lake
erie. Lake effect snow off of lake ontario will be around two
inches through the day, and around an inch off of lake erie. A
weak disturbance moving across the area this afternoon and
evening combined with some increased moisture, will bring the
potential for widespread scattered light snow showers. Areas
that are cold enough for snow to accumulate, will get a light
coating. Mostly cloudy skies will remain for most of the day
today across the area. Cold air advection starting in the
afternoon along with cloud cover will limit temperatures today.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 30s across
the area, with some areas in the low 30s across the higher
terrain.

Tonight, scattered snow showers from the weak synoptic disturbance
will taper off, and transition to lake effect southeast of both
lakes. Lake effect snow off of lake erie will be light and only last
a few hours as winds shift to the southeast ahead of the next
synoptic system on Sunday, lake showers should end just after
midnight tonight off of lake erie. The same scenario will
follow for lake ontario, but about 6-10 hour longer. Off of both
lakes, up to around a half inch of snow will accumulate. Cold
air advection will continue through the night tonight before
weakening on Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the teens eat of lake ontario, and in the low to mid 20s from
the higher terrain to the lakeshores respectively.

Short term Sunday through Monday
Sunday morning some very limited lake effect may still be ongoing at
the southeast corner of lake ontario from eastern wayne to
southwestern oswego counties. Any scattered flurries or light snow
showers from this will end by mid morning as inversion heights lower
and shear increases. Our attention then turns to a weak baroclinic
wave forecast to run along a stalled frontal zone from ohio to pa.

Weak isentropic upglide and frontogenesis aloft to the north of the
surface frontal zone will allow a band of light snow to develop
across the western southern tier later Sunday through Sunday
evening with some minor accumulations possible. The northern edge of
this is forecast by most model guidance to stay south of buffalo and
rochester. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s in most locations,
with some 20s across the higher terrain east of lake ontario.

Light snow associated with the baroclinic wave will move south and
east of the area later Sunday evening. The airmass may be marginally
supportive of a limited lake response Sunday night behind this wave,
with southwest flow gradually veering more westerly overnight. This
may allow a few flurries or light snow showers to develop northeast
and east of the lakes, but continued low inversion heights should
keep this light if it does in fact develop. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 20s.

Monday the eastern great lakes will largely stay between systems.

The stalled frontal zone may continue to produce some light precip
across pa, with an approaching mid level trough and surface cold
front bringing snow showers to the upper great lakes and ontario
upstream of us. There may still be some very limited potential for
light lake effect rain snow showers east of the lakes, otherwise the
rest of the area will stay mainly dry. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 30s in most areas.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek as a longwave
trough remains in place across the northeast quarter of the nation.

A few more weak mid level shortwaves and associated cold fronts will
bring the potential for nuisance snow showers Monday night through
midweek, with limited lake effect potential at times. The first
such front will cross the area Monday night and early Tuesday with a
few scattered snow showers. Lake enhancement east and southeast of
the lakes may produce minor accumulations across higher terrain.

This will be followed by limited northwest flow lake effect later
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another weak shortwave may cross the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of a few more
snow showers.

Late next week into next weekend it still appears a pattern change
will bring a significant warm-up to our region. The details on when
the warm-up arrives continues to show a good deal of run to run
variation in model guidance. Model and ensemble consensus from
yesterday suggested thanksgiving would be the first warmer day.

Model guidance has now backed off on this idea, with a lingering
trough over new england through thanksgiving. In fact, the new 00z
ecmwf has another strong push of cold air arriving Wednesday night
and thanksgiving day. Given the model uncertainty, have trended the
forecast temperatures down for thanksgiving but not as far as
current model guidance. A warmer airmass will eventually arrive by
Friday or next weekend.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
Bountiful moisture in the lower levels will maintain ifr or lower
conditions for most of today across higher terrain, including kjhw,
while lower elevations will fluctuate between high end MVFR, and low
endVFR. This moisture will remain through the day, with conditions
improving some this evening.

Ahead of another shortwave a band of weak snow over the so. Tier
this morning will begin to move northward along the long axis of
lake erie. This may bring a bit of light snow to kbuf and kiag late
this afternoon into the evening.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with high pressure. Possibly MVFR to the south
late.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...VFR with high pressure.

Marine
Westerly winds will last through the day today with corresponding
small craft advisories. Surface high pressure will be overhead on
Sunday. A few weak systems may affect the waters Monday and
Tuesday, and surface high pressure overhead starting Wednesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
nyz006>008-012-019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
loz042.

Synopsis... Sw thomas
near term... Sw
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Sw thomas
marine... Sw zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 34 mi35 min WSW 9.9 G 16 39°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 35 mi35 min 39°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi35 min W 29 G 33 42°F 1015.8 hPa (+2.5)35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY18 mi42 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast38°F28°F70%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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1 day ago5S4SE5SE7SE6SE7SE8
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SE8S5SE5SE44E3--CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalm
2 days agoW75W8W10N5N7N5N5NW5N4NW63CalmE5E4CalmE54CalmN6CalmSE5SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.