Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Fenton, MI
May 7, 2024 3:18 PM EDT (19:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 4:49 AM Moonset 7:37 PM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 333 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest after midnight - .then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the north in the late evening and early morning - .then becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening - .then cloudy with a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon - .then becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 071817 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 217 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a chance of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms south of a Midland to Port Huron line this evening, the greatest chances are along/south of the I-94 corridor.
- Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are the severe weather risks.
- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday, followed by cooler conditions with a chance of rain Thursday.
AVIATION
A line of decaying showers/storms is moving into Southeast Michigan this afternoon. An influx of low-level moisture brings cloud bases just above MVFR during the afternoon. Monitoring storm potential for this evening as low pressure tracks across Lower Michigan bringing a warm front, higher dewpoints, and strong shear with energetic jet winds aloft. Limiting factor for storm development/growth tied to questionable instability which struggles to become surface based as storms move in from the west. Timing for most of this convective activity falls between 6 PM and 9 PM with a slightly earlier start at mbS. Clouds try to scour out after midnight offering potential for a bit of MVFR fog as the humid airmass cools. Breezier day Wednesday with afternoon gusts in excess of 25 knots and VFR conditions.
For DTW/D21 Convection...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected this evening with potential for some strong storms capable of 40+ mph gusts, hail larger than a half inch, and possibly a tornado or two within the vicinity. Scattered discrete storms are favored early before multicellular clusters move through later in the evening. Storms move from west to east at 40 mph between 6 PM and 9 PM.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for thunderstorms 23-02Z this evening.
* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today, high during evening, then low overnight.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
UPDATE...
The forecast challenge in the near term centers around the potential severity of thunderstorm activity later today between 6-11 pm. A majority of Southeast Michigan south of a line from Saginaw to Port Huron remains outlooked in the latest SWODY1 with locations along and south of I 96 designated as a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Much of the forecast reasoning provided in the Area Forecast Discussion issued early this morning remains valid.
Geopotential height falls in advance of a deep upper level trough axis and a lobe of potential vorticity will force a strengthening 900-850mb warm front through Southeast Michigan between 20-00Z today. The overall severe weather risk then revolves down to the amount of destabilization that can occur behind this warm front and whether or not instability will become surface based. Current surface observations are reporting dewpoints in the mid 40s areawide this morning and the 07.12Z KDTX raob captured an atmosphere with strong stability in the lowest 10kft agl. Regional mosaic radar shows an arc of showers and elevated thunderstorms now lifting into southwest and far southcentral Lower Michigan that is anchored along the aforementioned warm front and leading isentropic ascent. Models, to a varying coverage, have been forecasting rain/shower/possible thunderstorms during the 18-21Z timeframe along this warm frontal/isentropic ascent dynamics. No severe weather is anticipated this afternoon.
The severe weather threat today will then be conditional to surface based instability that may develop after 21Z. Bulk of the model guidance has been limiting the northward progression of the SBCAPE plume (HRRR mean and recent operational hires runs) to the Michigan/Ohio stateline, shunted to the south by a persistence of east surface flow trajectories off of Lake Erie. Interestingly, model data suggests that rainfall during the 18-21Z timeframe will result in evaporative cooling in the near surface layer. Then as the strong kinematics and low level jet forcing arrives immediately thereafter, differential warm advection is expected to occur in the 2.5-5.0 kft agl. While this will provide for larger scale synoptic scale forcing for ascent, it is forecasted to result in relatively high static stability at the surface. Locally, models are lacking on the 3-6km lapse rates at only slight better than 6.0 C/km. So, the setup is one of very high shear and low instability. The kinematics are highlighted by 80kt at 500mb, nearly 50 kt at 700mb, 40 knots at 850mb and backed surface easterly flow. With convergence foci normal to the mean layer shear and directional turning with height will need to be watching for mesocyclone type behavior with thunderstorm activity during the 22- 03Z timeframe. If surface based instability is realized in some portion of the forecast area, the potential for a tornado will exist. There will also be the potential for large hail up to 1 inch.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
DISCUSSION...
A strong mid to upper level jet core circulating around the deep large scale upper low over the northern high plains will advance from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the northern Ohio Valley/srn Great Lakes today. Mid level isentropic ascent and deep layer moisture transport along the lead edge of an 85kt 500mb speed max will be driven across Lower Mi this afternoon and evening. The lead edge of elevated frontal forcing is expected to weaken as it advances into Se Mi early this afternoon given the lingering influence of a departing low level anticyclone, likely causing the lead edge of showers to diminish as the move into Se Mi. The RAP then indicates a respectable ribbon of forced ascent developing along an axis from west-central Ohio into Sw Lower Mi in the 21Z to 23Z time frame, in tandem with increasing upper level divergence along the nose of a 120 kt upper jet streak. This will correlate with an influx of sfc based instability (with sfc dewpoints in the low 60s) lifting northward along an approaching sfc warm front. The result will be the development of deep convection in the wake of the initial band of showers. This convection is expected to move into Se Mi during the course of the evening.
In terms of kinematics, 0-6 km bulk shear values are forecast to be an impressive 60-80 knots across the northern Ohio Valley into Srn Lower Mi this afternoon/evening. Rap and NAM hodographs also show excellent low level curvature in the vicinity of the approaching sfc warm front; 0-3km SR Helicity values over 350 m2/s3. The main caveat for Southeast Michigan will be whether or not the surface based instability is able to advect in from the southwest, especially given the easterly component to the surface winds off Lake Erie.
While available SB CAPE is in question, 00Z model solutions still drive anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg of elevated CAPE across Se Mi this evening, with model soundings indicating respectable CAPE density. These factors would suggest storms that develop upstream will be rooted in the boundary layer, then become more elevated as they move across Se Mi during the evening. Given the close proximity to the sfc instability reservoir (as well as the instability gradient), the southern portions of the forecast area remains in a slight risk for all types of severe weather including tornadoes.
Severe weather risk will be more a result of hail and isolated strong wind gusts risk farther north where the depth of the sfc stable layer will become much greater. Upstream convective mode is expected to be supercellular, transitioning to multi cell cluster and/or linear as storms move across Se Mi.
Ample mid level drying will expand across the area in the wake of the evening convection and will persist through Wednesday. This will warrant a dry forecast as developing low pressure within an amplifying short is forecast to remain focused across the northern lakes. Deep mixing depth per model soundings and a respectable westerly flow (25-30 knots within the mixed layer) will support breezy conditions Wednesday. A low level thermal gradient will extend across the forecast area, with highs across the thumb hard pressed to break 70, while metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south should break 80.
There continues to be ample spread among model ensemble members as to the track of the remnants of the upstream upper low. There is at least agreement that this system will quickly dampen/shear apart as it tracks across the Ohio Valley and srn Great Lakes Thurs/Thursday night. Model spread involves timing and the degree of interaction with short wave impulses dropping down from Canada and precise timing and location of the associated mid level deformation, which leads to a low confidence rain forecast. Any instability will remain well south and given the expected northeast surface flow, which will be a cool rain wherever it sets up over southern Mi.
MARINE...
Influence of high pressure wanes over the course of today as Midwestern low pressure lifts a warm front into the region late this afternoon-evening. Some strong to severe storms will be possible over the southern Great Lakes this evening. System's cold front quickly follows tonight setting up slightly cooler westerly flow Wednesday that then turns northeasterly Wednesday night. Cooler airmass combined with a tighter gradient due to secondary low development over the Ohio Valley supports a moderate uptick in wind strength Wednesday and Thursday with gusts topping out between 15- 25kts each day. Saginaw Bay could see gusts near 30kts Thursday due to NE winds channeling down the bay.
HYDROLOGY...
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact southeast Michigan late this afternoon through this evening. Despite a very dry start to the day, ample moisture advection into the area during the latter half of the day will allow some of the thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. As is typical in these type of convective situations, rainfall amounts will be highly variable across the region, with high end amounts up to a quarter to half inch possible. Overall, basin average rainfall should not pose flooding concerns.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 217 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a chance of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms south of a Midland to Port Huron line this evening, the greatest chances are along/south of the I-94 corridor.
- Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are the severe weather risks.
- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday, followed by cooler conditions with a chance of rain Thursday.
AVIATION
A line of decaying showers/storms is moving into Southeast Michigan this afternoon. An influx of low-level moisture brings cloud bases just above MVFR during the afternoon. Monitoring storm potential for this evening as low pressure tracks across Lower Michigan bringing a warm front, higher dewpoints, and strong shear with energetic jet winds aloft. Limiting factor for storm development/growth tied to questionable instability which struggles to become surface based as storms move in from the west. Timing for most of this convective activity falls between 6 PM and 9 PM with a slightly earlier start at mbS. Clouds try to scour out after midnight offering potential for a bit of MVFR fog as the humid airmass cools. Breezier day Wednesday with afternoon gusts in excess of 25 knots and VFR conditions.
For DTW/D21 Convection...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected this evening with potential for some strong storms capable of 40+ mph gusts, hail larger than a half inch, and possibly a tornado or two within the vicinity. Scattered discrete storms are favored early before multicellular clusters move through later in the evening. Storms move from west to east at 40 mph between 6 PM and 9 PM.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for thunderstorms 23-02Z this evening.
* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today, high during evening, then low overnight.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
UPDATE...
The forecast challenge in the near term centers around the potential severity of thunderstorm activity later today between 6-11 pm. A majority of Southeast Michigan south of a line from Saginaw to Port Huron remains outlooked in the latest SWODY1 with locations along and south of I 96 designated as a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Much of the forecast reasoning provided in the Area Forecast Discussion issued early this morning remains valid.
Geopotential height falls in advance of a deep upper level trough axis and a lobe of potential vorticity will force a strengthening 900-850mb warm front through Southeast Michigan between 20-00Z today. The overall severe weather risk then revolves down to the amount of destabilization that can occur behind this warm front and whether or not instability will become surface based. Current surface observations are reporting dewpoints in the mid 40s areawide this morning and the 07.12Z KDTX raob captured an atmosphere with strong stability in the lowest 10kft agl. Regional mosaic radar shows an arc of showers and elevated thunderstorms now lifting into southwest and far southcentral Lower Michigan that is anchored along the aforementioned warm front and leading isentropic ascent. Models, to a varying coverage, have been forecasting rain/shower/possible thunderstorms during the 18-21Z timeframe along this warm frontal/isentropic ascent dynamics. No severe weather is anticipated this afternoon.
The severe weather threat today will then be conditional to surface based instability that may develop after 21Z. Bulk of the model guidance has been limiting the northward progression of the SBCAPE plume (HRRR mean and recent operational hires runs) to the Michigan/Ohio stateline, shunted to the south by a persistence of east surface flow trajectories off of Lake Erie. Interestingly, model data suggests that rainfall during the 18-21Z timeframe will result in evaporative cooling in the near surface layer. Then as the strong kinematics and low level jet forcing arrives immediately thereafter, differential warm advection is expected to occur in the 2.5-5.0 kft agl. While this will provide for larger scale synoptic scale forcing for ascent, it is forecasted to result in relatively high static stability at the surface. Locally, models are lacking on the 3-6km lapse rates at only slight better than 6.0 C/km. So, the setup is one of very high shear and low instability. The kinematics are highlighted by 80kt at 500mb, nearly 50 kt at 700mb, 40 knots at 850mb and backed surface easterly flow. With convergence foci normal to the mean layer shear and directional turning with height will need to be watching for mesocyclone type behavior with thunderstorm activity during the 22- 03Z timeframe. If surface based instability is realized in some portion of the forecast area, the potential for a tornado will exist. There will also be the potential for large hail up to 1 inch.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
DISCUSSION...
A strong mid to upper level jet core circulating around the deep large scale upper low over the northern high plains will advance from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the northern Ohio Valley/srn Great Lakes today. Mid level isentropic ascent and deep layer moisture transport along the lead edge of an 85kt 500mb speed max will be driven across Lower Mi this afternoon and evening. The lead edge of elevated frontal forcing is expected to weaken as it advances into Se Mi early this afternoon given the lingering influence of a departing low level anticyclone, likely causing the lead edge of showers to diminish as the move into Se Mi. The RAP then indicates a respectable ribbon of forced ascent developing along an axis from west-central Ohio into Sw Lower Mi in the 21Z to 23Z time frame, in tandem with increasing upper level divergence along the nose of a 120 kt upper jet streak. This will correlate with an influx of sfc based instability (with sfc dewpoints in the low 60s) lifting northward along an approaching sfc warm front. The result will be the development of deep convection in the wake of the initial band of showers. This convection is expected to move into Se Mi during the course of the evening.
In terms of kinematics, 0-6 km bulk shear values are forecast to be an impressive 60-80 knots across the northern Ohio Valley into Srn Lower Mi this afternoon/evening. Rap and NAM hodographs also show excellent low level curvature in the vicinity of the approaching sfc warm front; 0-3km SR Helicity values over 350 m2/s3. The main caveat for Southeast Michigan will be whether or not the surface based instability is able to advect in from the southwest, especially given the easterly component to the surface winds off Lake Erie.
While available SB CAPE is in question, 00Z model solutions still drive anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg of elevated CAPE across Se Mi this evening, with model soundings indicating respectable CAPE density. These factors would suggest storms that develop upstream will be rooted in the boundary layer, then become more elevated as they move across Se Mi during the evening. Given the close proximity to the sfc instability reservoir (as well as the instability gradient), the southern portions of the forecast area remains in a slight risk for all types of severe weather including tornadoes.
Severe weather risk will be more a result of hail and isolated strong wind gusts risk farther north where the depth of the sfc stable layer will become much greater. Upstream convective mode is expected to be supercellular, transitioning to multi cell cluster and/or linear as storms move across Se Mi.
Ample mid level drying will expand across the area in the wake of the evening convection and will persist through Wednesday. This will warrant a dry forecast as developing low pressure within an amplifying short is forecast to remain focused across the northern lakes. Deep mixing depth per model soundings and a respectable westerly flow (25-30 knots within the mixed layer) will support breezy conditions Wednesday. A low level thermal gradient will extend across the forecast area, with highs across the thumb hard pressed to break 70, while metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south should break 80.
There continues to be ample spread among model ensemble members as to the track of the remnants of the upstream upper low. There is at least agreement that this system will quickly dampen/shear apart as it tracks across the Ohio Valley and srn Great Lakes Thurs/Thursday night. Model spread involves timing and the degree of interaction with short wave impulses dropping down from Canada and precise timing and location of the associated mid level deformation, which leads to a low confidence rain forecast. Any instability will remain well south and given the expected northeast surface flow, which will be a cool rain wherever it sets up over southern Mi.
MARINE...
Influence of high pressure wanes over the course of today as Midwestern low pressure lifts a warm front into the region late this afternoon-evening. Some strong to severe storms will be possible over the southern Great Lakes this evening. System's cold front quickly follows tonight setting up slightly cooler westerly flow Wednesday that then turns northeasterly Wednesday night. Cooler airmass combined with a tighter gradient due to secondary low development over the Ohio Valley supports a moderate uptick in wind strength Wednesday and Thursday with gusts topping out between 15- 25kts each day. Saginaw Bay could see gusts near 30kts Thursday due to NE winds channeling down the bay.
HYDROLOGY...
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact southeast Michigan late this afternoon through this evening. Despite a very dry start to the day, ample moisture advection into the area during the latter half of the day will allow some of the thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. As is typical in these type of convective situations, rainfall amounts will be highly variable across the region, with high end amounts up to a quarter to half inch possible. Overall, basin average rainfall should not pose flooding concerns.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 52 mi | 79 min | SE 8G | 62°F | 29.77 | |||
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 66 mi | 79 min | NE 14G | 56°F | 29.69 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFNT BISHOP INTL,MI | 8 sm | 25 min | SE 13 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 48°F | 52% | 29.70 | |
| KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI | 20 sm | 25 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 45°F | 46% | 29.72 | |
| KOZW LIVINGSTON COUNTY SPENCER J HARDY,MI | 21 sm | 23 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 52°F | 72% | 29.71 |
| KRNP OWOSSO COMMUNITY,MI | 24 sm | 23 min | S 04 | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 64°F | 50°F | 60% | 29.71 |
Detroit, MI,
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