Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:19PM Monday June 26, 2017 2:56 PM EDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 10:29PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 354 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this evening...
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 knots this afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201706262000;;836820 FZUS63 KDTX 260758 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Surface troughing, averaging 29.90 inches, will linger over Lake Huron throughout the day. This trough extends from an area of low pressure, also averaging 29.90 inches, anchored southern Ontario. This low will weaken as it gradually drifts northeast through the early week period. High pressure will then expand into the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing quiet weather conditions. LCZ460-262000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261644
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1244 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Aviation
Vfr through the period with widely scattered very light showers this
afternoon. Convergent corridor noted on visible imagery is expected
to lift through the ptk fnt areas early in the forecast period while
larger scale forcing remains more prominent toward mbs, thus the
longer lasting tempo group. Isolated shower not out of the question
in the detroit area but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast attm. MVFR stratus over the up and NE wi is mixing out with
diurnal heating. Expecting some redevelopment overnight, which is
hinted at by the guidance but not necessarily fully captured. Moved
forward with a few hours of high MVFR at all locations. Clear skies
and a modest northwest flow by Tuesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs AOB 5kft tonight

Prev discussion
Issued at 353 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
discussion...

michigan will remain entrenched within an upper trough encompassing
the great lakes once again today. Upper heights will fall this
morning as a strong upper shortwave over northern minnesota and
wisconsin approaches. The wave will cross lower michigan this
afternoon and evening, helping to provide a focus for showers and a
few thunderstorms. Cold pool associated with this wave will track
through central michigan, once again focusing the highest coverage
of showers tstorms over the northern portion of the forecast area.

That being said, will keep pops in the low to mid range as low-level
dry air remains in place below 7000 feet and we see little in the
way of moisture advection today. Instability does not look too
strong given cool temperatures, with ml CAPE expected to remain less
than 500 j kg. This should limit potential for thunder to isolated,
along with accompanying heavy rainfall. Conditions will become
breezy this afternoon and continue through the early evening.

Surface low pressure near lake huron will deepen today as the strong
upper wave approaches. This will create a moderately tight westerly
gradient between this low and high pressure building into the plains
and ohio valley. Mixed layer looks to support gusts to around 30
mph. Cool air will remain in place under the upper trough, while
clouds during peak heating limits insolation. This should keep max
temperatures down in the mid 50s to near 70 today, fairly similar to
yesterday.

Upper wave and instability generated by its cold pool will slide east
this evening, leaving subsidence in its wake. Showers should push
out of most of southeast michigan during the evening, with just a
few showers persisting over the thumb late. Skies are not expected
to begin clearing until towards sunrise however, as moisture axis
now over the northern great lakes pivots down through the area as
the low exits. Limited radiational cooling potential will hold min
temps in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Some of the moisture lingering from behind the low will remain over
the area, especially the eastern portion of the forecast area, into
Tuesday as moisture builds during the heat of the day. This could
potentially fire off a few showers or even a thunderstorm,
particularly closer to the lake shores if the gradient relaxes
enough for lake breezes to work inland. High pressure expanding into
the area from the ohio valley may suppress any convection, however.

Quieter weather is expected for most of Wednesday as the high
becomes the dominant feature.

More active pattern then looks to become established from Wednesday
evening through the end of the week as upper energy off the west
coast moves into the upper midwest and great lakes. Strong low-level
jet under a region of upper diffluence combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates Wednesday night could ignite complex of storms along a
warm front as it lifts through the upper midwest and western great
lakes. This area of rain thunderstorms would then move into lower
michigan late Wednesday night, maintained by the low-level jet.

Severe weather is not yet a concern for southeast michigan overnight
as activity looks to remain elevated and lapse rates don't really
begin to steepen until after sunrise. Primary threat right now looks
like potential for heavy rain as precipitable water values rise to
around 1.75 inches.

Marine...

another period of gusty westerly conditions will emerge today, again
warranting small craft advisories for saginaw bay, lake st clair and
the michigan waters of lake erie. A standand response with gusts
peaking during the afternoon, before rapidly easing by sunset. Light
to moderate wind will then dominate until the arrival of the next
system Wednesday into Thursday. Moderate southerly wind will
transition to fresh southeasterly during this time, the stable
southerly fetch limiting gustiness.

Hydrology...

scattered showers will again develop today, with the greatest
coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours. Though rain
may briefly be heavy on a local basis, basin average rainfall is
expected to remain under one tenth of inch today and no noteworthy
response to area rivers and streams is anticipated. The next chance
for organized rainfall will be Wednesday night into Thursday when up
to one half inch of rain will be possible. Rivers levels along the
tittabawassee river continue to slowly fall, with the river expected
to drop to moderate flood stage later this morning. Meanwhile, the
saginaw river continues to slowly rise and will crest on Tuesday
morning at moderate flood stage.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Hlo
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi30 min WSW 12 G 25 69°F 1015.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi56 min W 14 G 19 63°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi63 minWSW 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F48°F49%1015.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi63 minW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F45°F44%1015.2 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi63 minW 20 G 2610.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy69°F36°F30%1016.3 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi62 minW 18 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy67°F42°F41%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
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1 day agoW11
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W11W9W8SW5SW7SW5SW5SW6W7SW6W6W11W12W16
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2 days agoW6NW11NW11NW9NW10W11W5W5W8W5W7W8W7W7W5W6W8W10W8W4W8
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W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.