Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:37PM Thursday January 24, 2019 2:27 AM EST (07:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 327 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Drizzle likely early in the evening.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light snow showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Light snow showers likely until early morning...then a chance of light snow showers early in the morning.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy becoming partly Sunny early in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Light snow. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201901240900;;814730 FZUS63 KDTX 232027 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 327 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will deepen to 29.50 inches as it lifts from central lake Huron this afternoon to Quebec tonight. Weak high pressure will then expand across the region on Thursday. An arctic cold front will traverse the Great Lakes Thursday night. A surface trough will then linger over the region into Saturday. LCZ460-240900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240454
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1154 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Aviation
Generally MVFR CIGS overnight into Thursday with periods of lower
vfr mixed in at times within cold NW flow. This flow will back to
w SW in advance of next surface trough which will drop into area
late in the forecast period. Scattered snow shower activity is
expected with this feature with somewhat gusty winds as well given
increased pressure gradient.

For dtw... CIGS will remain below 5kft all much of the forecast aside
for the occasional sucker hole in the stratus. NW flow will back to
sw on Thursday with scattered snow showers possible again after 00z
as surface trough works into vicinity.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceilings below 5000 through TAF period.

* high in precip type being all snow showers Thursday evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 322 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
discussion...

near term rest of today through tonight
as of 320 pm est... Low pressure system that brought a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain to southeast michigan yesterday
evening through early this morning continues to progress northeast
across lower michigan. The low pressure center was located over
saginaw bay as of 3pm, and will continue to lift northeast towards
georgian bay by late this evening.

Temperatures across the region have warmed above freezing, with many
locations now in the upper 30s to around 40. Portions of the tri-
cities continue to struggle warming, with temperatures a little
cooler in the mid 30s. With temperatures above freezing,
precipitation type is now virtually all rain drizzle across
southeast michigan, with a few wet snowflakes likely mixing in
across bay and midland counties. Showers and periodic drizzle will
continue into the early evening hours, with activity ending from
southwest to northeast as the system dry slot punches into lower
michigan.

Increased momentum transport combined with the slightly drier air
and arrival of strong cold air advection associated with the system
cold front swinging through this evening will result in a brief
uptick in wind gusts. Gusts around 30 mph will be possible during
the evening hours as temperatures plunge back below freezing 23z-03z
from west to east. Any stronger wind gusts look to be limited by
residual boundary layer stability.

The big weather concern for this evening and into tonight will be
the potential for black ice formation. Not necessarily a slam dunk
for flash freeze, but enough residual moisture especially on
untreated roadways will have the potential of freezing over this
evening into early tonight. Will have to monitor these trends
closely and potentially issue a special weather statement if road
conditions support widespread black ice formation.

Outside of black ice concerns, dry weather under thick low stratus
will prevail tonight as low temperatures settle in the 20s. The
cloud cover will help to limit low temperatures from falling further
as 850 hpa temps plummet from a peak of around 3 c this morning down
to the negative teens by 12z Thursday in the strong low-level cold
advective regime.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
deepening polar trough will begin to swing southeast into the upper
great lakes Thursday and will foreshadow another round of arctic air
that will begin encompassing the region for the next week. Westerly
flow will release a plume of moisture off lake michigan late
Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours, with numerous snow
showers developing across much of southeast michigan. Convective
depths look to grow to 5-6 kft, with pretty favorable microphysics
with a 1-2 kft supersaturation with respect to ice layer in the dgz.

Steep low-level lapse rates also look to develop with some hints at
some CAPE intersecting the dgz. With around 30 knots of boundary
layer flow, there will be the potential for a few snow squalls to
develop in the increasingly arctic airmass. Best potential at seeing
snow squalls looks to be 22z-03z. Quick snowfall accumulations
around a half of an inch seem certainly plausible across much of the
region, with locally higher amounts in heavier snow bursts.

Scattered lake effect snow showers with additional minor
accumulations look to continue Thursday night and into the day
Friday as the trough axis swings through.

The return of bitter cold will be well underway beginning Thursday
night and through Friday as mean longwave troughing over the great
lakes and upper midwest reestablishes itself as sub 490 dam 500 hpa
heights plunge south from hudson bay. Lows Thursday night will fall
into the single digits lower teens after highs during the day in the
20s. Highs will then only reach into the teens Friday with lows
Friday night likely falling below zero for a large portion of the
region as 850 hpa temps plunge below -20 c. Extended period of below
zero wind chills will begin Thursday night as well, with some areas
potentially reaching wind chill advisory criteria Friday night into
Saturday morning.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
bitter cold will dominate the long term period as 850 hpa temps hold
solidly well into the -20s c, and potentially flirt with -30 c at
times late this weekend. Daytime highs will likely not make it out
of the teens with low temperatures in the single digits to below
zero. Dangerous wind chills will also prevail throughout the entire
long term period.

Pieces of shortwave energy rotating through the polar trough will
bring periodic chances of light snow this weekend. A more robust
clipper low will approach the region Monday into Tuesday with the
potential for accumulating snowfall. Still plenty of time to watch
this system unfold, but there is a growing signal in a significant
snowfall Monday into Tuesday. Behind this system, potentially even
colder air will move into the region for the middle of next week.

Marine...

low pressure will move across central lake huron this evening. Winds
will become northwesterly after passage and remain brisk west
northwesterly through the weekend. Wind gusts could approach gales
Thursday night and Friday across central and northern lake huron.

Cold arctic air will produce bands of lake effect snow through the
forecast period.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Drc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi87 min NW 8 G 16 30°F 1006.1 hPa (+0.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi87 min W 12 G 13 27°F 1005.4 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi34 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast27°F19°F75%1006.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi34 minNW 810.00 miOvercast27°F21°F78%1005.8 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi32 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1005.8 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi31 minNW 810.00 miOvercast29°F23°F77%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S7S7S8S7S7S9S8S9S8S9SW9SW9SW12W15
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W11NW13NW15NW9NW7NW10
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1 day agoS7S5SE11SE13S16
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G24
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S12S8S6S7S11S10S8
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2 days agoNW7NW5W4W5W4W3W4W6W4CalmW4SW4SW4SW3CalmW3CalmSE3S3E3CalmS4S5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.