Tuesday, April23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday April 23, 2019 7:15 AM EDT (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 326 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201904232015;;351988 FZUS63 KDTX 230726 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 326 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will deepen to 29.70 inches this morning as it lifts across northern lake Huron. This system will send a cold front across lower Michigan today. Moderate south wind this morning shifting to northwest and turning gusty during the afternoon. Winds ease tonight as high pressure builds into the region. This high, averaging 30.00 inches, settles across the region Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to move over the central great lakes Thursday. LCZ460-232015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230959
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
559 am edt Tue apr 23 2019

Aviation
Cold front on pace to sweep across the region late this morning.

Rapidly waning window for possible shower and thunderstorm
development in advance of the front as the narrow pre-frontal axis
of mid level instability exits to the east. Extensive area of post-
frontal low level moisture will then lift across the region during
the midday period. This will translate into a period of MVFR to low
vfr stratus well into the afternoon. Early day pre-frontal south to
southwest winds turning westerly and strengthening into the
afternoon. Gusts reaching 25 knots at times. Clearing skies with
diminishing winds this evening.

For dtw... Narrow window yet for potential thunderstorm development
in advance of a cold front thru 14z . Cold front then tracks across
dtw late this morning ~15z . Developing post-frontal westerly winds
will turn gusty this afternoon. This may result in a period of gusts
near crosswind thresholds for winds from a 280-290 direction.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low in thunderstorm occurrence through 14z.

* high for ceiling AOB 5000 ft today.

* moderate in westerly wind gusts reaching crosswind thresholds this
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 401 am edt Tue apr 23 2019
discussion...

dramatically lowered pops this morning with virtually no convective
response south of about i-69 owing to poorly convergent veered flow
and poor lapse rates within the sub-8kft effective layer. Another
round of isolated shallow showers with a chance of thunder will work
through the CWA between about 09z and 13z as the instability axis
draws north in advance of the incoming mid-level wave. Surface cold
front will then sweep through the CWA from west to east between
roughly 13-17z, the ensuing cold advection deepening the boundary
layer and supporting gusty winds through the daylight hours. H85
temps are progged to fall from the low teens into the mid single
digits during this time, surface temperature falls largely offset by
seasonally strong insolation. Post-frontal stratus will aggressively
clear during the afternoon as deep layer confluent flow and surface
high pressure builds in from the west. Unremarkable pattern through
the week as nwp continue to struggle with timing of lower amplitude
waves within relatively fast moving flow aloft. One way or another,
expect occl chances for rain with relatively small temperature
oscillations about climo. After a choice day on Wednesday featuring
nearly full insolation, light wind, and highs in the 60s within the
modest mid-level thermal trough, the next opportunity for precip
arrives late thurs. Eventual phasing of incoming northern stream
energy with the low ejecting out of the SW us will do little for
precip chances locally as the southern wave forces better moisture
well east. Nothing more than a chc pop warranted attm. Hints in some
of the guidance for greater longwave amplification potential by
week's end appear unlikely given fast-moving flow and poor
environment for wave amplification east of the rockies. Forecast
simply favors temps remaining slightly below climo during this time
as zonal aggregate westerlies stick near 45n.

Marine...

cold front on pace to lift across the region today. A brief period
of moderate southerly flow this morning will shift to northwest with
the frontal passage. Winds will strengthen for a time this
afternoon, with gusts reaching 20 to 25 knots at times mainly over
the open waters. This will preclude issuance of small craft
headlines for the nearshore waters at this time. Winds diminish
tonight as high pressure builds into the region. This high will
maintain lighter winds on Wednesday. Modest southwest winds will
develop Thursday as weak frontal boundary lifts into the great
lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi16 min S 8 G 15 59°F 1010.2 hPa (-2.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi16 min S 19 G 20 54°F 1006.1 hPa (-3.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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NE28
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi23 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F48°F65%1007.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi23 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1008.7 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi20 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F48°F70%1008.8 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi21 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast62°F49°F65%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S6S14
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1 day agoSW4SW4SW6SW5W5SW5W533SE6S7S5SE6SE4SE7S7S5S6S5S5S7S5S6Calm
2 days agoNE12
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N8NE12NE9NE8N7N6N4NE3CalmNW5CalmW4W5CalmW3W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.