Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:37PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:55 AM EST (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 331 Am Est Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm est this afternoon through Friday morning...
Today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers this morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers likely during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711231630;;831064 FZUS51 KBUF 230831 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-231630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva, NY
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location: 42.86, -76.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 231137
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
637 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
Partly sunny skies and cool temperatures are expected on
thanksgiving. On Friday, high pressure in the mid atlantic
region will produce a southwest flow of milder air along with
mostly sunny skies. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday
bringing scattered rain showers. Following the front Saturday
night into Sunday colder air will produce scattered snow showers
and some steadier lake effect snow showers primarily southeast
of lake ontario.

Near term through Friday
Early this morning satellite shows mostly cloudy skies over much
of the area as low level moisture remains trapped under an
inversion. Scattered flurries are also occurring over the
northern forecast area due to a cool west to northwest flow. By
sunrise flow will become southwest as surface ridging builds in
from the ohio valley. This will put an end to any remaining
flurries with skies expected to become partly sunny. Highs will
range in the middle 30s to around 40. A good weather day for
the holiday.

Tonight... In general a dry period with the exception of
northern oneida county. Here a surface trough moving through
eastern canada and favorable flow for some lake enhancement may
produce scattered snow showers with any accumulation an inch or
less. Overnight lows will range in the middle to upper 20s with
readings in the lake plain around 30.

Friday... High pressure off DELMARVA will keep a mild southwest
flow across the region along with mostly sunny skies. High
temperatures will range in the middle 40s to around 50 in the
warmer valley areas.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
For Friday night, a strong southwest dry low-level flow dominates
our region to begin Friday night as an upper level short wave trough
axis moves into the great lakes region. This trough and associated
surface front reaches the eastern great lakes region to eastern ohio
valley by 12z Saturday. The 00z GFS and 00z cmc bring some light
showers ahead of this front into central ny between 06z and 12z
Saturday. The 00z euro and 00z NAM keep most if not all of the qpf
west of our forecast area before 12z Saturday. So for now, have
chance pops for rain showers reaching the southern tug hill plateau
to syracuse and northern finger lakes region with a ribbon of slight
chance for showers just to the south by 12z Saturday. It should
remain dry Friday night across most of the southern tier of ny,
catskills and northeast pa.

Then Saturday morning, the front slows down as per the 00z NAM with
the front continuing a little farther east as per the euro GFS and
cmc. So given this spread we went from likely pops in our northwest
zones to chance pops and down to slight chance in our far southeast
zones in northeast pa Saturday morning. Cold air advection will
begin but it will be too warm for snow during the day Saturday. By
Saturday afternoon, the front continues east with the precipitation
drying out so have mainly chance pops for light showers.

Then for Saturday night into Sunday, a northwest flow of colder air
works in with lake effect snows and flurries downwind of lake
ontario. The flow begins around 290 degrees Saturday night with 850
mb temperature dropping to around -6c to -9c or so with the GFS and
nam warmer with the inversion lower below the maximum ice crystal
growth regime, the cmc and euro are colder with a higher inversion
layer. This continues into Sunday with the euro cmc suggesting a 2-4
inch snowfall or a bit more southeast of lake ontario. But the nam
and GFS suggests 1-3 inches at best. Model trends continue to be
warmer each run so we leaned more to the GFS nam solution. If this
trend continues, there won't be much lake effect snows at all. Right
our storm total snowfall grid has 1-3 inches southeast of lake
ontario Saturday night Sunday. Rest of forecast area sees
scattered snow showers or flurries with less than 1 inch
accumulation.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
For Sunday night and Monday, the euro cmc, there will be some warm
air advection with some lake moisture leading to some light snow
showers and flurries in north central ny. Dry weather expected in
south central ny northeast pa.

For Monday night and Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure and then a
southwest flow of milder air sets up with dry weather. Then for
Wednesday some milder air and a chance for rain showers will
predominate as per superblend. The models diverge a lot by day 6-7
so there is a lot of uncertainty.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Moisture trapped under an inversion along with a cool westerly
flow will keep some terminals in the MVFR category through 14z
then a developing southwest flow will improve conditions at all
terminals toVFR.VFR conditions are then expected to continue
through tonight.

West northwest winds 5-10 knots shifting to the southwest later
this morning at 5-8 knots and continuing overnight.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...VFR.

Saturday... Possible restrictions in rain showers.

Saturday night through Monday... Lake effect snow showers
causing restrictions, especially for ksyr-krme.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Rrm
near term... Rrm
short term... Djn
long term... Djn
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 43 mi56 min WSW 8 G 11 33°F 1021 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 44 mi38 min 33°F 1020.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 49 mi38 min S 7 G 9.9 30°F 1019.8 hPa24°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G34
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W19
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S10
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G24
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G32

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY15 mi63 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast30°F18°F61%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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W8NW11W8W9NW7NW7W6W6SW9SW6SW6W7SW5SW4SW6
1 day agoS16
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S9S6SW4CalmCalm3CalmSW3SW3S3N5CalmNW76--NW8NW7W4
2 days agoW15
G22
SW11W9
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W7SW13
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W7SW10SW6SW6SW7SW9SW14
G22
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G25
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G21
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G24
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G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.