Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:04AM||Sunset 5:54PM||Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:08 PM EST (17:08 UTC)||Moonrise 7:22PM||Moonset 7:59AM||Illumination 98%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbuf 201425|
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
925 am est Wed feb 20 2019
A storm system will pass through the region today, with a light
wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain today and into the
evening, becoming predominately plain rain overnight. An area
of high pressure will then pass across the region tomorrow
afternoon through Saturday with fair weather. Another storm
system, this much stronger, will pass through the great lakes
region Saturday night through Sunday night with rain, and the
potential for very strong winds.
Near term through tonight
High clouds have already enveloped the region this morning as
upper level moisture to the north of a gulf of mexico veritable
fire hose that is dropping copious wintertime precipitation in
the ohio valley has been drawn northward. A wave currently
passing through the western great lakes will draw some of the
deeper moisture northward, but this will likely only affect
areas south of the thruway through the afternoon before we have
to wait for lift associated with an upper level trough over the
western northern plains to track into the great lakes this
A surface low associated with this upper low will pass by lake
superior this evening. Ahead of this surface low will be a llj,
around 50 to 60 knots at 3-4k feet. Convergence along this llj,
combined with a slight isentropic upglide in the moist 925 to
700 hpa layer will bring light precipitation to our region
this evening that may marginally increase in intensity overnight
as a cold front passes through the region.
Thermal profiles still suggest a brief beginning to the
precipitation as all snow, that will quickly change over to sleet
and freezing rain this afternoon and evening as the nose of a warmer
airmass aloft pushes into our region. A southeast downslope wind
will hold back on the arrival of precipitation along the lake erie
shoreline and across the metro buffalo area. Here light
precipitation may not begin to measure until the early evening
Greatest ice accumulation of just a few hundreds of an inch will
likely extend from the northern so. Tier and across the genesee
valley and finger lakes region. Lower elevations near lake erie will
likely have just a trace to a hundredth or two of ice. Snow will be
nominal, with perhaps the tug hill region possibly nearing an inch
of snow accumulation before a change to rain.
Together the snow and freezing rain chances will bring slippery
conditions to the roads and a winter weather advisory will remain in
Tonight warm air will flow across the area, with 850 hpa
temperatures +4 to +5c and a southerly flow bringing increasing
surface temperatures into the mid 30s to lower 40s across wny. This
warming in the lower layers will result in plain rain falling as a
weak cold front crosses the region. This warming will not be as
pronounced east of lake ontario, but we should still see largely a
change over to plain rain here too.
Behind the cold front late tonight temperatures will slowly begin to
fall such that the plain rain may mix with some wet snowflakes
across the higher terrain late.
Winds will also increase in speed later today and tonight as the
surface low tracks through the central great lakes. While the low
will deepen some, its central pressure will remain 1000 mb or
greater, not overly impressive, but still strong enough that in
conjunction with the LLJ overhead may bring wind gusts to 30 to 35
mph. Strongest winds will be from the southeast, and along the lake
erie shoreline where downslope flow perpendicular to the chautauqua
ridge axis may yield gusts to 45 mph this afternoon and evening.
Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Precipitation will be in the process of moving out of our region as
we open this period Thursday morning. Low pressure over southern
quebec will ease down the st lawrence valley while transferring its
energy to the canadian maritimes. Weak ridging in TS wake along with
significant drying in the mid levels will help to shut down any
leftover precipitation... As any synoptic forcing will exit to the
east. The only area where some showers will persist will be east of
lake ontario... And that will be largely driven by orographics. There
are still some guidance packages that are suggesting lake induced
pcpn... But do not believe it. H85 temps are only forecast to drop to
-8c... And this is just too mild this time of year (lake temps low to
mid 30s) to produce any lake response. While the drying aloft will
offer many areas the opportunity to see some sun... The day will be
characterized by west-southwest winds that will gust to 35-40 mph.
This will be a small taste of what is to come this weekend.
A broad mid level ridge covering much of the country Thursday night
will amplify over the mississippi valley and upper great lakes...
while elongated high pressure will stretch across our region from
the northern rockies. While some guidance continues to erroneously
suggest lake effect... The ridging will guarantee fair dry weather
across our forecast area. The only potential fly in the ointment
will be some residual orographic induced showers east of lake
ontario... And those should be focused more on the adirondacks.
The expansive ridge will continue to amplify over the eastern half
of the country Friday and Friday night. This will continue to
guarantee fair weather for our region. In fact... Temperatures Friday
afternoon should approach 40 in many parts of western new york with
light winds and at least partial sunshine.
Conditions will gradually start to deteriorate on Saturday. Our
dominant area of high pressure will push east from new england...
while ongoing cyclogenesis over the southern plains will set the
stage for what could be the most impactful high wind event that our
region has experienced in several years. More on that in the long
term section below. As for the day at hand... Clouds will increase
and thicken from the south during the course of Saturday... As a
deepening southerly flow will boost afternoon temperatures well into
the 40s. This will especially be the case over the western counties
where some areas could even touch the 50 degree mark. While the day
should be dry... Some light rain cannot be ruled out for sites near
the pennsylvania border during the late afternoon.
A rapidly deepening cyclone over the central plains Saturday evening
will push northeast to the upper great lakes by daybreak Sunday.
There is strong consensus among the various guidance packages of
this track... As well as the general central pressure by daybreak...
which will be in the vcnty of 980mb. Extending to the east of this
monster storm system will be a tightening baroclinic zone that will
advance from pennsylvania across sour forecast area during the night.
Strong frontogenetic forcing will result in several hours of steady
rain... Which could briefly start as a wintry mix for areas near and
east of lake ontario.
Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Widespread damaging winds likely Sunday...
one of the strongest cyclones in recent memory will pass through
eastern canada Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance
packages are in unusually good agreement on the strength and track
of the system... Including a minimum central pressure that is
forecast to be in the vcnty of 970-975mb. The intense system will
have several classic synoptic high wind signatures for our
region... Including a nearly ideal southwest to northeast track and
steady intensification as it passes. Closer inspection of the wind
profiles from this beast indicate forecast winds of 70 kts as low as
2500 ft and 60 kt winds as low as just 1000 ft. Given moderately
strong subsidence in the wake of the system... A large portion of
these winds would easily mix to the surface. A more subjective
parameter to watch will be the downward penetration of the trop
fold... Which in looking at the 1.5pvu field... Is being advertised to
lower to around 650mb. Taking all of these factors into
consideration... Current guidance suggests fairly widespread wind
gusts over 60 mph Sunday and early Sunday night... With the potential
for winds over 70 mph. This would make this event the strongest in
several years... But given the range of this forecast (day 5) and
model oscillation... Will hold off on headlines while beefing up the
dangerous threat in the hwo product.
As far as some more detailed timing... A powerful cold front
associated with the intensifying storm system will plow across our
forecast area Sunday morning. This is 3 to 6 hours faster than
recent numerical guidance and nearly 12 hours faster than guidance
from a couple days ago. Southerly winds will start to increase ahead
of the front early Sunday morning... Then winds will shift to the
southwest and immediately gust to 50 to 60 mph. While winds may
slacken a bit in the first hour or two behind the front... Winds will
then pick up during the midday and afternoon. This is when winds
could gust to between 60 and 70 mph... Particularly in the corridor
that extends from lake erie and the niagara frontier to rochester
and the thousand islands region. Lapse rates of 9 deg c km are
forecast from the sfc to the heart of the strong low level jet...
giving further reason to believe that the winds will have little
trouble mixing. Should these winds verify... We could anticipated
widespread power outages from downed trees. There would also be a
heightened risk for damage to some structures. Please keep in mind
though that at this point... It is only a forecast... Albeit one with
increasing confidence. It will be important to stay tuned to updated
forecasts and possible statements headlines as we progress through
the rest of the week. As a side note... The front will be accompanied
by some showers on Sunday... Mainly ahead of it... And then several
hours after it moves through.
The very strong winds will slowly subside Sunday night and Monday...
as the very deep storm will make its way across central quebec. The
high winds at this point will be accompanied by strong cold
advection. There will be the likelihood for snow showers within the
wrap around moisture field of the expansive storm... With lake
enhancement southeast of lake ontario.
By Tuesday... High pressure centered over the northern plains is
forecast to arch across the upper great lakes to our forecast area.
This should support fair weather for our region after a very rough
end to the weekend.
Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
For the 12z tafsVFR flight conditions will be predominate as
surface high pressure moves across new england this morning.
Impactful weather will be found the last 18 hours of the taf
cycle as the center of a storm system passes by just to the west
of the region. This system will bring a wintry mix before
changing to plain rain later in the afternoon and through the
remainder of the TAF cycle.
A southeast downslope wind will limit precipitation around the kbuf
airfield today, with just a vcsh qualifier in the tafs.
A LLJ 50 to 60 knots (around 40 knots at 2k feet) will begin to
increase the southeast winds this afternoon. These winds will veer
to southwest tonight. Gusts to 30 knots at the surface are possible.
Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered rain or snow showers.
Friday and Saturday...VFR.
Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.
The center of a storm system will cut through the central great
lakes today and tonight, with southeast winds veering to
southwesterly tonight. While these winds will keep the higher waves
over the canadian waters, the winds may flirt with small craft
thresholds later today and tonight. Thursday these southwest winds
will increase further, and will place SCA on the lakes today through
Thursday night. Winds will also reach low end SCA on the niagara
river later tonight and tomorrow.
A powerful storm system will cut through the central great lakes
Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will
produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, with storm force
wind gusts likely.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz006>008.
Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Thursday for nyz003>005-013-014.
Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
this evening for nyz001-002-010-011.
Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for nyz012-
Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for lez020.
Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
Thursday for lez040-041.
Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday
Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for loz042>044.
Small craft advisory from 1 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday
near term... Fries thomas
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||10 mi||38 min||E 5.1 G 7||31°F||32°F||1025.3 hPa||2°F|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||12 mi||38 min||34°F||1024.4 hPa|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||15 mi||38 min||29°F||1025.5 hPa|
|YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY||28 mi||68 min||E 2.9 G 8.9||28°F||1025.4 hPa (-4.4)|
|DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY||29 mi||68 min||Calm G 1||31°F||1025.3 hPa (-2.9)|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||38 mi||68 min||E 9.9 G 12||27°F||1027.1 hPa (-5.1)|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY||19 mi||74 min||E 4||10.00 mi||Overcast||28°F||14°F||56%||1026.3 hPa|
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||19 mi||75 min||E 6||10.00 mi||Overcast||26°F||12°F||57%||1027.5 hPa|
Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NW||NW||NW||NW||W||W||SW||SW||W||NW||NW||NW||W||W||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||E|
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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