Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:15PM Thursday September 21, 2017 5:22 PM EDT (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:21AMMoonset 7:20PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1031 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. Clear.
Saturday..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. The water temperature off buffalo is 69 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201709212100;;716371 FZUS51 KBUF 211437 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-212100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211847
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
247 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the weekend with high pressure
holding in place across the region.

Near term through Friday
A seasonably strong 588dm mid-level ridge along with 850mb temps
running near +17c will continue our summer-like pattern into this
weekend despite the arrival of autumn on Friday. Surface high
pressure will keep dry weather in place with high temps again
warming into the low to mid 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal
september levels.

Tonight, without a change in our weather pattern, expect more fog
and low stratus will again develop overnight similar to previous
nights. Fog will again be most prevalent in the interior southern
tier river valley locations and in the north country low-lying areas
near the black river and saint lawrence river valleys. Stratus will
likely develop along the south shore of lake ontario and along the
ny pa state line. Ideal radiational cooling will again support
temperatures again dipping down into the mid 50s inland to the low
60s near the lakes.

As mentioned above, Friday will see similar weather today. Dry
weather with plenty of Sun once areas of morning fog and stratus
dissipate. Temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

Short term Friday night through Monday night
While autumn will officially begin at the start of this period (4:02
pm edt Friday to be exact)... It will continue to feel more like late
july-early august. An anomalously strong 590dm sub tropical ridge
will remain anchored over the ohio valley and lower great lakes
through the time frame with the prodigious ridge being accompanied
by mid summer warmth.

The combination of strong subsidence 'beneath' the ridge... H85 temps
in the upper teens c... And increasingly dry antecedent conditions
will all support afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. If
it weren't for the fact that we have 22 degrees on the Sun angle
already... We would most certainly be talking about some 90 degree
readings as well. Luckily for us... The gulf of mexico will be cut
off..So dew points that will start off in the upper 50s to lower 60s
will not climb past 65 by late in the weekend.

Meanwhile the nights will feature mainly clear skies with the
resulting favorable radiational cooling producing fog in open...

outlying areas... And particularly in the southern tier valleys. Mins
will range from the mid and upper 50s across the southern tier and
parts of the north country to the low to mid 60s across the lake
plains.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday
Finally... Some weather to talk about.

A significant pattern change will take place across the country
during this period... And this will bring an end to the prolonged
stretch of summery weather. The change will be brought about by the
combined efforts of hurricane maria and a digging canadian shortwave
over the northern plains. Each of these features will eat away at
the dominant ridge that up to this point will have been in control
for the better part of a week.

As the ridge is eroded away... Some atlantic moisture will be
injected westward across the mid atlantic region... Possibly reaching
back as far as our forecast area. Meanwhile... A strong cold front
marking the pattern change will eventually cross our forecast area.

This could should bring many parts of our forecast area its first
measurable rain in more than two weeks.

Breaking this scenario down into day to day weather... High pressure
will remain in firm control on Tuesday and this will provide us with
another sunny warm day.

As the aforementioned cold front bears down on our region for
Wednesday... Showers will become possible. This will especially be
the case for sites across the southern tier and finger lakes regions.

Any showers will become a little more common Wednesday night and
Thursday as the front gradually pushes across the region.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
when afternoon mercury levels will be in the 80s... Then post
front... Temperatures will quickly drop back towards normal late
september values.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with high
pressure in control. Another round of low stratus and fog is again
expected tonight with impacts most likely at kart kjhw and kroc. Ifr
is likely in low stratus and fog. This will dissipate late morning or
near midday withVFR again prevailing through Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local ifr conditions each late
night and early morning with fog.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church smith
near term... Smith
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Church smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi53 min W 5.1 G 5.1 81°F 1018.2 hPa58°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi53 min 76°F 1018.7 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi83 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 75°F1018.7 hPa (-0.6)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi53 min 82°F 1019.5 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi83 min N 7 G 8.9 73°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi83 min N 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1019.2 hPa (-0.8)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi83 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 71°F1 ft1019 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi83 min NE 11 G 13 71°F 1019.6 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi30 minNNE 1110.00 miFair83°F66°F59%1018.4 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi29 minNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds83°F61°F48%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE4NE3E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmNE3SE3CalmCalmE3E4E5E54E6CalmN11
1 day agoNE7NE6E4E6E4E4E4CalmNE3E4CalmNE3NE4NE3E3CalmE3NE74NE5E3NE8NE10E6
2 days agoSW3S3E5S3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3SE4CalmCalmS4S5S5SW54NE3CalmN7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.