Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 2:35 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ673 Expires:202405040330;;564137 Fzus63 Kmkx 031953 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 253 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 30.1 inches with variable light winds will turn more easterly through this evening and overnight. Moisture will increase heading into tomorrow ahead of a frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Some showers and storms are possible in the afternoon with the passage of the front. Following the cold front, winds will turn westerly and could become breezy Saturday night into Sunday as a 30.05 high pressure moves into the area. Sunday will start on the breezy side before the winds slowly subside heading into the afternoon and evening.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-040330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 253 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt veering to north 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft.Sunday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Sunday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Monday night - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 032052 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few stronger thunderstorms are possible in southeast WI Saturday afternoon.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle portions of next week.

SHORT TERM
Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:

Clear skies will prevail over southern WI tonight. Look for winds to become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves across the region, then start increasing out of the southeast in the morning as the high departs. Dewpoints mixed down to around 40 this afternoon, so that should help our evening temps drop into the lower 50s quickly. Lows should be in the upper 40s, but can't rule out mid 40s toward central WI.

A line of showers and thunderstorms along a weak cold front will be tracking into the western part of WI Saturday morning. This front is associated with a mid level shortwave trough and the resultant weak surface low. The stronger forcing with that shortwave will stick closer to the entrance region of the upper jet, which will track across northwest WI. Therefore, the line of showers with a chance for lightning will be weakening as it tracks into south central WI late Saturday morning.

Once the front reaches south central WI from around Janesville to Fond du Lac, there will have been enough daytime heating to allow for some build-up of CAPE (up to 1000 j/kg) in southeast WI to support an increase in shower and thunderstorm development. The shear is on the higher end and will be enhanced by the lake breeze. While the mid level forcing will be weaker, the surface forcing will be stronger. Thus, there is a chance for a stronger storm or two in far southeast WI during the afternoon. Small hail and gusty winds are the threats. The tornado threat is non-zero if storms interact just right with the lake breeze boundary. The window of opportunity looks like 3 to 8 PM for areas between Janesville, Port Washington, and the WI/IL border.

Cronce

LONG TERM
Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday through Friday:

High pressure will take hold of southern WI Sunday and Monday.
Look for increasing southeast winds Mon afternoon as low pressure approaches from the Plains. That closed low will stay fairly stationary in the Northern Plains Mon-Tue as it occludes, but showers and thunderstorms along the warm front should extend into southern WI on Tuesday. As the upper low either moves eastward or weakens, another round of showers and storms is possible over southern WI on Thursday. The weather pattern associated with the storm chances is complicated and unorganized, which is the typical nature of upper lows. Expect changes to the forecast many times between now and then.

Unfortunately, that upper low does not move out of the Upper Midwest until at least Saturday, which means a prolonged period of clouds and precip chances for southern WI until then.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Winds will be calm overnight and start increasing out of the southeast in the morning as low pressure approaches from MN. A line of showers and thunderstorms will be weakening as it tracks into south central WI late Saturday morning. Once the associated front makes it to around Janesville-Fond du Lac, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Areas southeast of Janesville to Port Washington have the best chance for stronger storms. Thunderstorm activity should exit the area by 10 pm (03Z), but probably earlier.

Cronce

MARINE
Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Light southeast winds are expected tonight into Saturday as high pressure slides across the Upper Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front late Saturday afternoon through the evening. High pressure will return for Sunday and Monday. The next low pressure system that may bring gusty winds below gale level and another round of thunderstorms will track across northern Lake Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,