Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Point, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:25 PM CDT (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:07PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ673 Expires:201905220330;;235963 Fzus63 Kmkx 211916 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 216 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.2 over the central great lakes will continue to move slowly east tonight. East to northeast winds will increase through the remainder of the afternoon and evening ahead of low pressure of 29.3 inches over kansas. Winds will be gusty out of east to southeast tonight into Wednesday as the kansas low pressure deepens to 29.2 inches and lifts into minnesota Wednesday afternoon. Winds will weaken a little and veer to the southwest Wednesday night as the low departs and high pressure approaches. No gale force wind events are expected through the week ahead. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-220330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 216 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southeast. Chance of rain showers this evening, then rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to east. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ673


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Point, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.86, -87.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 211740
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1240 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Update Will continue chance for -shra this afternoon as deeper
layer moisture edges eastward along with increasing low to mid-
level warm air advection. Needed to bump up high temperatures in a
few spots, but increasing winds and thickening cloud cover should
slow down the temperature rise.

Aviation(18z tafs) Scattered showers are expected to develop over
southern wi this afternoon, with more widespread showers and
possibly an isolated t-storm moving across the southern wi
overnight. Expect ceilings to lower to MVFR for a time, eventually
lifting after the winds turn to the southwest Wednesday morning.

Low level jet pivoting across southern wi will result in gusty
winds just above the shallow low level inversion. However
expecting gusty winds at the surface, so wl hold off on low level
wind shear in tafs.

Prev discussion (issued 953 am cdt Tue may 21 2019)
update... Initial surge of warm air advection showers diminishing
as they cross the border from northern il into southern wi.

However through the day, column precipitable water increases as
low level winds veer to the southeast and low level winds increase
as the low level jet over the plains spreads east. Hence still
expect scattered showers to develop over southern wi this
afternoon with the best chance in the south and west. East to
southeast wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph may develop in the south and
west as well due to low level mixing and the shifting low level
jet.

Marine... Gusty east to northeast winds will develop across
southern lake michigan today and this evening and continue into
Wednesday as low pressure moves slowly north through the plains. A
small craft advisory GOES into effect this evening south of wind
lake and north of wind lake around midnight. May need to push up
start time a few hours in northern zones, but for now, wl stay at
status quo.

Beaches... A tightening pressure gradient across southern lake
michigan this afternoon and tonight will result in gusty east to
northeast winds developing. This will cause waves to build to
around 4 feet or higher tonight and high swim risk conditions.

Hence we will likely be issuing a beach hazard statement for high
swim risk conditions at beaches along lake michigan for our 5
lakeshore counties this afternoon, valid for tonight, possibly
into Wednesday.

Prev discussion... (issued 605 am cdt Tue may 21 2019)
update...

latest models show a continuing downward trend in precipitation
chances for this morning into the early afternoon. Thus I have
decreased precipitation for this period. Otherwise the forecast
remains on track with very breezy conditions expected today.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

rain chances this morning early afternoon have decreased. I left
vcsh in tafs but shower chances could be reduced further over the
next few hours. In addition, the chance for MVFR CIGS for a few
hours this morning has also decreased.

The main aviation concern will come later this afternoon evening
and into the overnight hours, when we could expect very breezy
easterly winds in association with an approaching low pressure
system. This will bring rain chances to the region throughout this
period, as well as some MVFR CIGS with a chance for a few hours
to see ifr cigs. In conjunction with these breezy winds, low cigs
and precipitation chances will be low level wind shear at 2 kft
around 45-50 kts from the east southeast.

Prev discussion... (issued 325 am cdt Tue may 21 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high...

rain showers are expected today in association with a strong
closed upper level low that will track to our west. This will
provide some forcing aloft this morning afternoon in the presence
of some low level moisture bringing chances for showers,
primarily to the south where better moisture will be available.

For much of the area there will be a break in rain chances due to
lack of forcing, though further west could still see some showers
given the potential for some WAA in the region.

Into the evening and overnight forcing will come from both the
upper level low and the strong low level jet that will be draped
across the region allowing for strong waa. This will be in the
presence of moisture through much of the column allowing for rain
showers across the region with a slight chance for a thunderstorm
given some weak instability.

Otherwise temperatures will reach the low to mid 50s for highs
today with very breezy conditions expected as a result of the
increased pressure gradient from the incoming strong surface low.

Long term...

Wednesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence... Medium
we'll start the day with rain storms lifting off to the N NE as
the strong low to our west moves north into northern mn. Winds
switch to the S SW during the day and good WAA kicks in with high
temps on Wednesday about 20 degrees warmer than what we'll see
today! There is some uncertainty in the afternoon as to whether or
not any isolated thunderstorms develop. Forecast soundings
indicate that enough synoptic lift coupled with the WAA will clear
the low level capping inversion that we end up with a small sliver
of cape. A LLJ nudging into the area ahead of a weak frontal
boundary might allow for an isolated shower storm to develop
Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours. Best chances are
likely to our south and have tweaked pops to indicate this.

The upper level system finally begins to push east on Thursday and
will track across the northern great lakes. Winds remain out of
the S SW and with another mostly sunny day expect highs to be in
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night... Forecast confidence... Medium
a ridge building over the SE us will put us in a good S SW flow
at the surface and aloft bringing a warm moist airmass to the
region. A wave ejecting out of the a trough over the desert sw
generates a low over co ks on Thursday and this system nears the
area Thursday night into Friday. Expecting a complex of storms to
develop Thursday night and move towards the area but these should
be weakening as they move across the area. The question then
becomes how quickly can the clouds clear out on Friday and where
any outflow boundaries from the morning convection setup. If we
clear out quickly highs in the 80s are possible. Kept temps
slightly cooler but with steep lapse rates aloft CAPE in the
afternoon could range from 1500-2000 j kg. Wind shear of 30-40kts
combined with CAPE would suggest a few stronger storms are
possible. Any lingering outflow boundaries will likely be a focus
for development and something to watch.

Saturday through Monday... Forecast confidence... Medium
ridging across the southern us will put the area just on the
northern periphery of the ridge, which the where we would
typically see multiple waves track. But what initially looked like
an unsettled weekend, may end up with only a few chances for
storms. The reason is that high pressure building in to our north
will help to suppress a frontal boundary just south of the area.

This should keep much of the storm chances in northern il this
weekend and into next week. Highs in the 60s and 70s are on tap
for the weekend with lows in the 50s.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

a low pressure system will begin to make its way into the region
today with rain showers possible this morning and more likely into
the early afternoon. Rain chances will continue through the taf
period primarily in the western half of the area with lesser
chances into the evening closer to the shoreline. There will be a
brief period in the early evening where areas from madison and
west could see a few hours of MVFR cigs.

By around 00z, low level wind shear at 2 kft will be around 45-50
kts from the east southeast and will continue through most of the
overnight period. Lastly, showers will become likely into the
late evening and continue through much of the overnight period
with MVFR ifr CIGS expected to push into the region during this
time as well.

Marine...

winds will begin to turn to the east today as high pressure
departs and lower pressure pushes into the region. Winds will
initially be light but will quickly strengthen into the afternoon
and evening. Winds will become gusty, especially for the southern
half of the lake, both in the open lake and nearshore areas
allowing for waves to reach 3-6 feet across the western half of
the lake. This and gusts from 15-25 kts in the nearshore has
triggered a small craft advisory for wind point to winthrop
harbor from 7pm Tuesday to 7pm Wednesday with the rest of the
nearshore areas from 1am Wednesday to 7pm Wednesday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm cdt
Wednesday for lmz646.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 7 pm cdt Wednesday for
lmz643>645.

Update... mbk
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Wednesday through Monday... Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 13 mi35 min NNE 5.8 G 5.8 41°F 39°F1 ft1022.2 hPa38°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi25 min E 9.9 G 11 44°F 1021 hPa (-0.3)
45029 43 mi25 min E 12 G 16 55°F 48°F1 ft1021.7 hPa (+0.0)38°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi35 min ENE 8.9 G 11 45°F
45161 45 mi25 min SE 9.7 G 14 56°F 49°F1 ft1021.4 hPa (+0.0)
45187 45 mi25 min E 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 46°F1 ft
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi43 min E 12 G 18 57°F 53°F1020.7 hPa38°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 47 mi25 min SE 9.9 G 13 62°F 1021.6 hPa (+0.0)38°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
W14
G19
NW15
G19
NW14
G17
NW9
NW12
G15
N14
G17
N10
N3
N6
NE3
G6
NE6
E2
E3
NE5
G8
NE4
G7
NE7
E6
G9
E10
G13
E12
G17
E11
G17
E10
G16
E14
G20
E11
G14
E9
G15
1 day
ago
S19
S16
SW20
SW7
G11
SW13
SW14
SW14
W6
SW5
W7
W10
W13
G16
W9
W8
W12
W16
NW17
W14
G18
W16
W14
G18
W15
W15
NW16
W17
2 days
ago
S4
S8
S17
S30
W14
G17
NW7
G10
N5
G9
E5
E8
E9
G12
E9
E11
E11
G15
E14
G18
E13
G18
S15
S18
G22
SE14
G20
S19
G24
S16
G20
S17
S14
S15
S12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI39 mi32 minE 1110.00 miOvercast51°F39°F66%1022 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrN8NE8NE9NE8E5E3CalmNE3CalmCalmW3CalmNE6NE8NE9E8E9E11
G18
E11
G18
E9E10E9E7E11
1 day agoSW19
G31
SW14
G28
W19
G31
W17
G26
W7
G21
W16
G25
W9
G17
W12
G20
W13
G20
W9W7NW10
G18
W8W7NW7NW11
G19
W7NW10
G20
NW10
G19
N11NW10N8NE8NE10
2 days ago3W4NE6NE5N5NE8N10N11
G18
N13NE13N10
G17
N11N9NE9NE8N3CalmCalmE5E3SE3SE3S16
G31
W14
G32

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.