Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Point, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:46 PM CST (02:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ673 Expires:201902180430;;091565 Fzus63 Kmkx 172034 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 234 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A broad area of low pressure of 29.8 inches over west virginia will move to near new york tonight, while high pressure of 30.7 inches begins to move south from canada into the northern great plains. Surface winds across lake michigan will transition from east to northeast, and then eventually north and northwest late tonight into Monday morning. That area of high pressure will slide across the great lakes Monday and Tuesday, bringing generally quiet weather to the area. Low pressure of 29.8 inches will then cross lake michigan on Wednesday and the eastern great lakes Wednesday night. High pressure of 30.3 inches will return to the great lakes later in the week. No gale force winds are expected through Thursday. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-180430- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 234 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Snow this evening, then chance of snow overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt overnight. Chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..East winds to 30 kt becoming south. Snow and light freezing rain in the morning, then snow likely, chance of rain and light freezing rain in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 kt veering to east 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ673


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Point, WI
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location: 42.86, -87.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180231 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
831 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Synoptic lift has shifted out of the area with light showers
lingering (away from the lake) with the weakening upper low.

Lake effect bands are apparent on radar into sheboygan and northern
milwaukee ozaukee counties. Thinking these areas, or others in
any heavier, stationary bands could see one half inch per hour rates
for several hours for totals of 3 to 5 inches. Other areas along
the lakeshore impacted by the weaker and less organized bands
could see a another 1 to 2 inches.

Delta t values are 15 and should increase another couple of degrees
early Monday. As 850mb temps cool to -15c, low level lapse rates
steepen and there is saturation in a deep dendrite growth zone
extending from 900 to 650mb, which favors a few inches of lake
effect snow in the more dominate bands. So several inches are
possible since the winds won't change much until around 4 am.

After this time winds over the lake shift to the north which will
push any remaining showers offshore.

Thinking the advisory is ok for now to handle this.

Marine
Gusty northeast winds will become north early Monday. Wind gusts
will diminish Monday afternoon. Waves will reach 4 to 6 feet in
ice free areas. The small craft advisory remains in effect through
mid morning Monday.

High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night,
remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the
east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches.

A small craft advisory may be needed during this time.

Prev discussion (issued 629 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019)
update...

no changes to the forecast.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

expect ceilings of 1500-2000 tonight, occasionally lower in the more
moderate to heavier snow bands in eastern wisconsin. Mainly light
snow will dominate in madison, winding down after midnight. Lake
effect snow will likely impact the lakeshore areas and
possibly ues through about 12z. Winds will shift to the north Monday
morning which will push the lake effect offshore.

Cloud bases will likely become broken around 3000ft later Monday.

Prev discussion... (issued 228 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019)
short term...

rest of this afternoon and tonight... Forecast confidence is
high...

generally light to moderate snow continues across the area this
afternoon. There have been a few bands of heavier snow, which have
reduced visibilities to a half mile or less at times.

Large scale lift will begin to wane late this afternoon into this
evening, as the 850 mb and 700 mb lows rotate through the area.

Light snow showers will likely persist until after midnight, but
the intensity should decrease with time. The exception will be
near the lakeshore, where increasingly favorable winds and falling
850 mb temps will result in lake effect snow taking shape. We will
likely see multiple bands of lake effect snow showers develop this
evening, which should then organize into a single band tonight as
convergence improves. That band will then skirt the shoreline
through the night as winds become increasingly northerly with
time.

We look to be on track for a storm total of 3-6 inches of snow
across the advisory area, with local maxima of 5-6 inches west of
madison and along the lake, and 3-5 in between.

No changes are planned to the area or timing of the winter weather
advisory. For the lakeshore counties, the vast majority of the
snow should be done by 6 am, though a few light snow showers may
linger into the mid morning hours on Monday. Given that any
appreciable accumulation should be over by 6 am, that still looks
like a good end time for the winter weather advisory for this area.

Will continue with a 3 am expiration for the counties to the
west, though at least a few tiers may be able to be expired early.

Monday and Monday night... Forecast confidence high...

high pressure will build into the area Monday into Monday night.

No precipitation is expected, with highs on Monday ranging from
the mid 20s south to around 20 north, and lows Monday night in the
low single digits above zero.

Long term...

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high:
high pressure will build overhead on Tuesday, with plenty of
sunshine expected. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below
normal.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
low pressure passing through the region will bring another shot of
accumulating snow to southern wisconsin Tuesday night and
Wednesday. There are still moderate differences among models with
the track and strength of the low as well as how much drier air
aloft will move in from the south. Models overall have mainly
snow... Though there has been an increasing trend in a loss of ice
aloft across roughly the southeast half of the forecast area on
Wednesday. Thus kept a mention of a mix with freezing rain going.

A blend of model solutions is still giving roughly 3-5 inches of
snow for this period (higher NW and lower se)... Though still
plenty of time for the finer details to change.

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium to low:
high pressure is expected to bring dry weather and near normal
temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

Another low will take aim at the region next weekend. Models are
still not in very good agreement with this system, with a full
range of solutions still in play. There overall picture points to
a decent shot at snow across at least the NW half of the forecast
area, with maybe some rain mixing in southeast. A lot of time for
the details of this one to change. Hopefully the picture will
clear up a bit over the next day or two.

Aviation(21z TAF update)...

ifr will continue today across the area, with occasional drops to
lifr in heavier snow bands. Snow will slowly diminish in intensity
at madison by evening, but will continue further east as a lake
effect band forms. This lake effect will likely impact milwaukee
and kenosha, and may just skirt the waukesha area. Widespread ifr
is expected, with occasional drops to lifr.

Winds will be easterly this afternoon, becoming more northeasterly
with time. Winds then become northerly toward Monday morning.

Marine...

gusty east winds will become northeasterly this evening, and then
transition to northerly late tonight. Waves will reach 4-6 feet in
the ice free portions of the nearshore, and a small craft advisory
continues though mid morning on Monday.

High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night,
remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the
east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches.

A small craft advisory may be needed during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Monday for wiz052-059-060-
065-066-071-072.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am cst Monday for wiz056-062>064-
067>070.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Monday for lmz643>646.

Update... Marquardt
tonight Monday and aviation marine... Boxell
Monday night through Sunday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi47 min ENE 14 G 16 27°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi117 min NE 17 G 19 27°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi35 min NNE 8 G 9.9 23°F 32°F1012.5 hPa15°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 47 mi17 min ENE 7 G 8.9 22°F 1016.2 hPa20°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI39 mi54 minENE 87.00 miLight Snow26°F21°F81%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW5NW6NW7NW5NW6NW6NW6W7W6W7NW5NW5NW6N6N6N6NE11N14
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NW5NW5NW7NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.