Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:05 AM   Moonset 1:10 AM

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LMZ673 Expires:202405140330;;155030 Fzus63 Kmkx 132014 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 314 pm cdt Mon may 13 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure of 29.4 inches and a cold front will slowly sink southeast with time overnight. Behind the front, the pressure gradient will support gusty north to northeast winds over the middle third of the lake, with gusts to 25 knots. These gusts should continue through Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the upper great lakes on Wednesday, allowing winds to become more easterly and ease in strength with time.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-140330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 314 pm cdt Mon may 13 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late this evening, then becoming northeast after midnight diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday - Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday night - North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt veering to east 5 to 10 kt overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 132045 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. A few afternoon thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact air quality through this afternoon in portions of southwestern Wisconsin.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM
Issued 345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Spotty shower and thunderstorm activity should continue into this evening as a cold front sinks south and a lake breeze boundary pushes inland. So far this afternoon, brief gusty winds have been observed along with up to quarter sized hail with the stronger cells. This should be the ceiling of intensity for any more storms that develop this afternoon. Tonight, the front should sink south and thunder should give way to showery precipitation as weak WAA aloft continues north of an area of low pressure that's expected to move east along the Ohio River Valley. Showery activity will continue for the first half of Tuesday, mainly along and south of I-94, and then we should dry out late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

CMiller

LONG TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Wednesday through Sunday:

Wednesday will feature another day of quiet weather as we transition from weak ridging to another approaching trough. A weak shortwave swinging across MN will start to phase with a shortwave trough over the central Mississippi River Valley. This mid-level forcing, in combination with upper level forcing in the right entrance region of an upper jet streak, will help produce shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. This is not a really favorable setup for severe, but it has some potential for marginal stuff (again).

The next trough of interest comes across the MN/Canadian border Saturday night, but the better forcing is north of our area.

Temps will be warming through the week. Upper ridging will then take hold for the weekend with some differences in timing of the sfc warm frontal passage. A warm weekend is expected with another Sunday possibly in the 80s. Rain chances of 20-30 percent chances are forecast via warm, moist advection.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 325 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that is slowly sinking southward. Winds north of the front will be northerly while winds south of the front will be south to southwesterly and are expected to remain light, save for any sites impacted by thunderstorms, where brief gusty winds may occur.

Any ceilings the rest afternoon should be mostly VFR ranging from around 4000 to 7000 ft, with bases around 2500 ft possible with any storms. Overnight, ceilings will lower to MVFR with the lowest heights around 1000ft along the WI/IL border as low pressure passes south of the state. Showery rain will also continue along the border. Low celings along the WI/IL border will continue into the first half of tomorrow, and will rise with time Tuesday afternoon.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 320 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Low pressure of 29.4 inches and a cold front will slowly sink southeast with time overnight. Behind the front, the pressure gradient will support gusty north to northeast winds over the middle third of the lake, with gusts to 25 knots. These gusts should continue through Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the upper Great Lakes on Wednesday, allowing winds to become more easterly and ease in strength with time.

Locally, a winds and waves will reach Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight and will continue into early Wednesday morning as the north to northeasterly winds become gusty.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

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