Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vermillion, SD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:03PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:35 AM CST (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:12PMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vermillion, SD
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location: 42.87, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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Fxus63 kfsd 161142
afdfsd
area forecast discussion
national weather service sioux falls sd
542 am cst Fri nov 16 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 358 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
the main changes to the previous forecast are to increase
snowfall amounts over the northeastern portions of our CWA for
this evening - with the ECMWF nam models shifting the higher qpf
farther to the west, and the issuance of a winter weather advisory
for parts of southwestern mn where the highest snowfall amounts
are expected.

For today, the overall scenario remains the same, with increasing
lift in the afternoon as an upper level jet MAX streams just to our
north and east and an upper level shortwave drops southward through
northern south dakota. There will be strong midlevel warm air
advection across the area for much of the day, with 850 mb sub zero
c wet bulb temperatures being confined to locales north of
interstate 90 into the afternoon. With the aforementioned forcing,
rain and snow is expected to develop through east central sd and
southwestern mn by afternoon. To the south of this area, it is
expected to remain dry through the majority of the day. Warmest
temperatures will be found through the missouri river corridor where
highs will be close to 50. To the north and east, it will be much
cooler with afternoon temperatures remaining in the mid 30s to lower
40s over most of the area.

By this evening, the main upper level shortwave shifts into our area
as a surface low over northeastern nebraska tracks southeastward
into southern iowa overnight, drawing colder air southward across
our area. At the same time, 800 mb frontogenesis increases from east
central sd through southwestern mn during the evening - this
collocated with optimum 500 mb div q, and it is this area that will
see the heaviest snowfall during the evening early night time hours.

To the south of this area, deep layer moisture is lacking, so
precipitation amounts drop off quickly to the southwest. In fact,
with dry midlevels across our south, it appears that there will be
lack of saturation within the dendritic layer and if precipitation
occurs at all, it could just be a brief period of freezing drizzle
before ending quickly with no ice accumulation expected. With strong
cold air advection and an increasing surface pressure gradient, winds
will begin to pick up overnight. Luckily, it looks like the stronger
winds will lag behind the precipitation, but cannot rule out some
patchy blowing snow over southwestern mn later at night. With the
cold air advection, temperatures will drop into the teens for most
of the area by Saturday morning.

In terms of snowfall overnight, snowfall totals will be in the range
of 2 to 4 inches from far east central sd into southwestern mn, with
amounts dropping off rapidly back to the south and west. Elected to
issue a winter weather advisory for lincoln lyon and cottonwood
counties where greater than 3 inches is expected. There will be a
possibility that the advisory may have to be expanded farther
westward if models continue to trend westward with the higher qpf.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 358 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
made little change to the extended forecast with the near term
weather concerns. After the current event, the weather looks benign
into the end of next week. In the wake of today's system, Saturday
will be the coldest day of the next several with highs only in the
20s. There will be some warming for Sunday through Tuesday, though
temperatures will remain just below normal with highs in the
30s lower 40s and lows in the teens and 20s. More significant
warming looks evident for the middle of next week as an upper level
ridge drifts eastward into the central conus. With that, could see
highs back into the 40s and 50s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 539 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
MVFR-ifr ceilings expected to improve briefly in the late
morning early afternoon, but deteriorating conditions expected
thereafter as band of snow spreads southeast across portions of
the region. At this time, heaviest snow expected to remain east of
khon kfsd, so visibility likely to remain in MVFR range, but brief
periods of ifr visibility are possible this evening.

Fsd watches warnings advisories
Sd... None.

Mn... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am cst
Saturday for mnz071-072-081.

Ia... None.

Ne... None.

Short term... Jm
long term... Jm
aviation... Jh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yankton, Chan Gurney Municipal Airport, SD20 mi40 minNE 48.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F30°F92%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from YKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W9W15W15W22
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NW19NW11NW9NW7W6W8W9W9W9NW6W6W5W6N5NE4
1 day agoSE5SE7SE8S13S15S11S13S12SE7S8S8S13S9S11S5SE7SE8SE8SE7SE4SE5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW6S5SW3S8S3S3CalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmNE3NE5E3E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sioux falls, SD
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.