Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 11:37 AM   Moonset 1:29 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 950 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to around 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 151402 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1002 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue today as a frontal boundary remains stalled over the Lower Great Lakes, producing occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rain will be this afternoon inland from the lakes, with lower coverage of showers close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Weak high pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes later tonight and Thursday with mainly dry weather before another front brings rain back to the region later Friday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Weak mid level circulation and associated vorticity maxima drifting across eastern PA today, is producing an area of showers which are mainly across southcentral NY into central NY. Meanwhile a weak surface cold front is slowly settling south/southeast of Lake Ontario across western and northcentral NY. These features will result in increasing showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as diurnal instability increases this afternoon.
The best coverage of rain will be from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes with this area spreading north later in the afternoon. Similar to today, the lowest chance of rain will be close to Lake Erie and all but far eastern Lake Ontario where stable lake cooled air lowers instability. Low level northeasterly flow will aid in lake stabilized air off Lake Ontario making further inroads which will help limit shower activity from the Niagara Frontier over to Rochester as well.
Overall flow will again be weak, supporting slow storm motion with any thunderstorms and the risk for some locally heavy downpours.

Tonight, lingering showers across inland areas will gradually diminish and end as high pressure surface and aloft moves from the Upper Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Some patchy fog may develop again, especially in areas that receive rainfall.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Drier conditions should take hold Thursday as a mid level low pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast and ridging starts to build into the region. Exception may be for areas east of Lake Ontario and possibly the Finger Lakes, as Atlantic moisture wraps in on the northern side of the departing low. This may allow for a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm to develop as weak diurnal instability develops. High temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but northerly flow will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler.

Mid level ridge builds into the region Thursday night, any lingering shower activity will end with a brief dry period for Thursday night.

Mid level ridge departs on Friday with moisture starting to increase ahead of the next upper trough progressing into the eastern Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. The associated surface low will lift to near James Bay Friday night dragging a cold front toward the region. Warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent ahead of the front will drive increasing chances for showers from west to east Friday into Friday night. Some marginal instability will develop with the potential for some embedded thunder.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Shower activity continues through most of the long term period. A trough moving through the area early Saturday will continue the potential for showers through the morning. As the trough departs to the east, shower activity will diminish through the day on Saturday.

The potential for showers will continue through the period, but to a lesser extent then Saturday morning as a few different systems pass by mainly to the north and south through the rest of the long term period. A larger trough and mid-level low over the mid-Atlantic will keep showers in or near the forecast area for much of the forecast period. The driest day as of now looks like Sunday, but there is still much variability among the models for the later portion of the long term and into the new work week.

Temperatures during the period will be mainly above normal with highs in the low to upper 70s for the lower elevations inland from the lakes. For the higher terrain and areas closest to the lakes with onshore winds highs will be in the low 60s to near 70.
Currently, Saturday will be the coolest day of the period, with some warmer temperatures for Sunday-Tuesday with most of the three days around the same temperatures for afternoon highs.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low cigs and fog this morning will continue to improve some through this afternoon, although there may be some lingering MVFR/IFR stratus throughout the day, especially across the Western Southern Tier. Patchy fog is also possible.

Showers will again increase in coverage, with the greatest coverage of rain across inland areas and the lowest coverage close to Lake Erie and all but far eastern Lake Ontario. A few thunderstorms may develop again in the afternoon that will have the potential to produce localized brief reductions in VSBY.

IFR/MVFR CIGS will continue into tonight with fog likely to expand in coverage through the overnight once again. Lingering showers across inland areas will taper off through the late evening/early overnight hours.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR/IFR improving to VFR through the morning.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the week. Northeast winds in the 10-12 knot range will produce mainly light chop on Lakes Erie and Ontario through tonight. Otherwise, light winds will return Thursday as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. An offshore flow will then develop Thursday night and Friday with gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes in advance of the next system approaching from the west.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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