Monday, January22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Scotia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:58PM Monday January 22, 2018 3:08 PM EST (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:20AMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotia, NY
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location: 42.89, -74     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221739
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1239 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

A frontal boundary will lift slowly north of the region
as a warm front today into tonight with light mixed precipitation
changing to rain especially north of the mohawk valley and capital
region. A low pressure system and its cold front will bring periods
of rain to eastern new york and western new england on Tuesday. As
the cold front moves through Tuesday night, colder more seasonable
air will return with brisk conditions for the mid week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Winter weather advisory expanded south and west to include
most areas north of the mohawk river, and northern berkshire

southern portion of advisory until 3 am est tue, northern
portions until 7 am est tue...

as of 1220 pm est, dewpoints continue slowly falling for most
areas north of the mohawk river, mainly in the 20s. As the next,
more widespread surge of isentropic lift, currently producing an
expanding area of light rain across central nys and northern pa
continues translating northeast, we expect precipitation to
redevelop expand across the region during the afternoon hours.

Steadiest precipitation is expected near and especially north of
the i-90 corridor, where strongest most persistent isentropic
lift is expected.

With dewpoints continuing to slowly fall into the 20s north of
the mohawk river, wet bulb effects once precipitation develops
should cool many of these areas close to, or even a bit below
the freezing mark. Although some sleet could initially be mixed
in for northern areas, forecast soundings suggest mainly
freezing rain for areas where temps dip near or below freezing.

Thus, the expansion for the advisory area south and west. Will
watch trends closely this afternoon in case any further
expansion slightly south and west is needed.

Slippery travel walking conditions will become likely within
the advisory area for the evening commute.

So, temps are expected to peak over the next hour or two, before
falling back slightly this afternoon, especially in any areas
which receive steadier precipitation.

Some areas of fog drizzle will also occur through this
afternoon, especially across higher elevations.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Tonight... The NAM model soundings in particular near kgfl and
southern vt keep the threat for some freezing rain tonight
before temps gradually warm up, as the warm front lifts north
and east. We also added northern saratoga county and southern
washington co to the warren county to the advisories until 7 am
tue. Also added northern berkshire co to these southern
adirondacks southern vt advisory until 7 am, though west of the
southern greens mtns may warm up quickly.

The good news is that as isentropic lift strengthens on the
290 295k surfaces as the low-level jet increases, it also lifts
north of the region later tonight. Temps should steadily rise
mon night with lows generally in the mid and upper 30s from the
i-90 corridor south and east, and upper 20s to mid 30s
northward. The south to southwest h850 jet increases to 40-50
kts on the GFS nam. The latest 00z GEFS indicate the h850
+v-component low- level wind anomalies increase to +2 to +3
standard deviations std devs above normal. The strong
southerlies will advect into the region some gulf moisture
towards daybreak, as pwat anomalies also rise 2 to 3+ std devs
above normal ahead of the cold front and strong cyclone moving
into the central and eastern great lakes region. Any ice
accretions should only amount to a few hundredths to isolated
tenth of an inch, as the warmer air floods into the the region.

Tuesday... A slug of moderate to heavy rainfall impacts the
region as upper level diffluence sets up over the area. The
isentropic lift enhances with better upper level jet dynamics.

The heaviest rain looks to be Tue morning into the early to mid
pm. The showalter values continue to dip to 0c to -2c south of
albany. The elevated instability is best depicted on the nam,
and we did include a slight chance of thunderstorms late tue
morning into the afternoon south of albany over the southeast
catskills, mid hudson valley, southern taconics and NW ct. A dry
slot to the system will likely drift into the region Tue pm, as
the sfc wave stays north and west of the region, as it moves
north of the st lawrence river valley. Total rainfall may reach
the half inch to one inch range during this time frame. High
temps will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the forecast
area, but strong cold advection will kick in late in the day
initially northwest of albany.

Tuesday night... Some timing differences in the
nam gfs ECMWF ensembles on how quickly the cold advection moves
across the forecast area. The GFS has two surges. One is with
the initial cold front, and the second is with a secondary
boundary. The mins temps are bit higher on the gfsmos compared
to the NAM mos. We used a blend of the guidance, and have the
lingering pcpn with the upper low and secondary cold front
changing to snow north and west of the capital district. Light
snow accums in the westerly upslope region of the western
adirondacks, and southern greens are possible with a few tenths
to an inch or two. Also, some light snow accums are possible in
the mohawk valley northern and eastern catskills. The winds will
also increase from the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with
some gusts in the 35-40 mph range. Lows fall back into the 20s
to around 30f with some teens over the southern dacks. We will
have to monitor if any hydro issues arise. After collab with
neighboring wfos, we decided to hold on a flood watch for snow
melt runoff ice jams. Still time to further assess potential.

Please see our hydro section for more details.

Wed-wed night... The cyclone deepens and strengthens over new
brunswick and nova scotia. Blustery northwest winds and cold
conditions are expected on Wed with h850 temps tumbling back to
-10c to -16c over the fcst area.

Max temps may be achieved before noon, and slightly fall during
the day. Some wind gusts in to 35 to 45 mph range will be
possible over the higher terrain and from the capital region
north and east late morning into the early pm. Daytime highs
will be in the 20s to mid 30s. The upslope or lake enhanced snow
showers will diminish during the day with the subsidence
inversion lowering. Clearing skies, lighter winds and cold
conditions are likely late Wed night with lows in the single
digits and teens with some below zero readings over the southern

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The periods starts out on Thursday with a cold and dry northwest
flow regime in place, with high pressure building east across the
great lakes. 850 mb temp anomalies of -1 to -2 stdev are forecast
from the 00z gefs, which will translate highs only in the teens and
20s across the region with gusty northwest winds. Wind speeds will
decrease Thursday night, as a 1035 to 1040 mb anticyclone moves
directly over the region. This will result in cold temps in the
single digits to below zero in the higher terrain. Even colder temps
would be expected with a fresh snow pack, but this is not
anticipated. Temps will remain on the cool side Friday as the high
pressure ridge gradually shifts eastward into new england, with
continued dry conditions.

As high pressure at the surface moves offshore Friday night, ridging
in the mid to upper levels will build across the region. Rising
heights and a return south-southwest flow around the departing high
will result in warmer temps on Saturday. Depending on eventual
sunshine and mixing potential, many locations from the mohawk and
hudson valley southward could reach well into the 40s. A residual
snow pack in higher terrain areas should keep temps cooler in the
30s, but still above normal for late january.

Chances for precipitation will start to increase Saturday night, and
especially into Sunday ahead of a surface cold front and upper level
trough passage. Forecast guidance has trended towards a progressive
open-wave system, although there are timing differences. Will
mention highest pops during the day Sunday, as this period is when
there is better consensus for the timing of the cold front passage.

Based on temp profiles, there could be some mixed precipitation
across mainly higher terrain areas and sheltered valleys with colder
air in place near the surface Saturday night. Will mention rain snow
mix for now, with plenty of time to refine forecast once timing
comes into better focus. Primarily rain is expected in most valley
locations Saturday night into Sunday.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
One period of rain and freezing rain late this afternoon and
evening with intervals of ifr MVFR conditions. Coverage of
precipitation will decrease late this evening through the early
morning hours with breaks in the precipitation. Keeping vcsh
along with fog and low ceilings during the lull in precipitation
through the early morning hours in case of a few lingering
showers or drizzle. Wind shear is expected between midnight and
midday Tuesday as surface winds will be light but winds at 2000
feet will be south at 30 kt or greater.

More rain develops Tuesday morning with ceilings and
visibilities once again wavering between ifr MVFR through
Tuesday morning. Light north to east winds at less than 10 kt
this afternoon will become variable at 5 kt or less tonight and
south at less than 10 kt Tuesday morning.


Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Windy chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday to Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings warren and litchfield counties , as
some lingering issues continue due to existing ice jams which
froze in place.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal into Tuesday.

The mildest night and day will be on Tuesday with highs mainly
in the 40s to lower 50s with a much colder and more seasonable
airmass returning Tuesday night and through the remainder of the

A low pressure system and its cold front will bring a moderate
to locally heavy rainfall to the area. The rain is expected to
be light today and into early tonight with the bulk of the rain
occurring Tuesday morning into early afternoon. QPF amounts are
forecast at this time to range from three quarters of an inch to
an inch an a quarter. The highest amounts are expected north
and east of albany and the capital region.

The rain is expected to cause rises on rivers and streams, which
may move and dislodge ice and may cause flooding near ice jams.

Mostly within bank rises are expected based on the latest nerfc
forecasts and the mmefs. A couple of points reach minor flood
stage on the mmefs such as little falls on the mohawk river and
williamstown on the hoosic river. Our confidence is not great
for widespread potential flooding and we will continue to
monitor if one is needed especially Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Our latest winter spring flood potential outlook (esfaly) was
issued this past Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Tuesday for nyz038>040-

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for nyz032-033-

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for maz001.

Vt... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Kl nas wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Nas
hydrology... Bgm wasula

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 60 mi99 min 37°F 1021 hPa34°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY4 mi75 minE 610.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1021.3 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY14 mi78 minENE 38.00 miOvercast35°F28°F78%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmNW4N3CalmCalmCalmCalm--------------------NE5------NE3--E6
1 day agoW10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------------CalmNE3CalmW8W10W12

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 03:11 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:31 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:41 PM EST     5.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Mon -- 03:00 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:32 PM EST     4.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.