Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:42 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 271940 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 340 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring mostly cloudy skies with some passing showers tonight through Sunday night, along with a few rumbles of thunder. The front stall south of the region Monday, before returning back northward Monday night through Tuesday bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will vary depending on the frontal location, with unseasonable warmth on the south side of the front, and more seasonable temperatures near and north of the boundary.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 330 PM EDT, partly sunny skies through high clouds continue for areas near and east of the Hudson River Valley, with thickening clouds to the west, along with some light showers/sprinkles entering far western Herkimer County.
Temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest within and east of the Hudson River Valley.

Band of light showers associated with warm front aloft continues to slowly progress eastward across central/western NYS. Rainfall rates are generally less than 0.05 inches/hour. This initial band may tend to weaken/decrease in coverage as it tracks farther east through sunset, producing spotty light showers/sprinkles for areas mainly west of the Hudson River.

Additional showers, currently forming across western NYS are then expected to track eastward across the region later this evening and overnight. As the low level jet strengthens, these showers may tend to hold together better, moving across the region from west to east between roughly 10 PM and 3 AM tonight.
Latest CAMS suggest some weak elevated instability develops across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley after midnight, so a few rumbles of thunder will be possible, possibly extending as far east as the Capital/Saratoga region and Schoharie Valley/eastern Catskills prior to daybreak.

Gusty south/southeast winds will continue through sunset, especially at the leading edge of the rain showers, with some gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds may then weaken once the boundary layer moistens from the showers.

Low temperatures mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Early morning showers are expected, especially near and south of I-90, before some breaks in the clouds develop by mid to late morning. Additional showers are then expected to develop close to, or just south of the I-90 corridor during the afternoon hours. Shower coverage should remain scattered, however it is possible that multiple rounds of showers affect some of these areas. Some elevated instability will also remain for areas near and south of I-90, so will keep mention of isolated thunderstorms, with best chances across the western Mohawk Valley extending into Schoharie County and the SE Catskills.
Low confidence on Sunday high temperatures, as any areas of clouds and showers will limit warming potential, despite increasingly warm air aloft. Have sided with a slightly cooler blend of MAV/MET MOS across the region for max temps, with 65-70 for most areas except warmer across the mid Hudson Valley.
However, should there be less shower coverage, much warmer max temps are possible.

Cold front approaching from the north should bring additional scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms for Sunday night. This front should settle southward into the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT region by Monday afternoon. Mid level ridging sharpens over the region with slightly drier air aloft building overhead. This should decrease shower coverage on Monday, with only isolated coverage expected across the SE Catskills/Mohawk Valley region closer to the low level frontal boundary. Cooler air behind this front should prevent temps from warming much for areas near and especially north of I-90, with mainly 60s expected, with some possibility for 50s depending on cloud cover. Areas near and especially south of the boundary should reach the 70s, with some possibility for temps approaching 80 in the mid Hudson Valley.

Boundary should then begin shifting back northward Monday night as mid level ridge axis flattens and shifts east of the region.
This should allow for some showers/thunderstorms to move across the region, favoring areas north of I-90 later at night where overall mid level forcing appears greatest. Temperatures should fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weakening cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, while retreating warm front slows down and potentially stalls across or just east of the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms should become numerous Tuesday afternoon and night. Some showers could linger into Wednesday along with low clouds as frontal boundary weakens across the region. High temps Tuesday mainly in the 60s to lower 70s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday high temps should reach 65-70 in valley areas, and 60-65 across higher terrain areas, assuming some breaks of sun develop late in the day. Should clouds and any showers persist longer, cooler temps would prevail.

Models have trended slower with late week system, with stronger ridging building off the eastern seaboard. Current forecast still indicates chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, however if front continues to slow down, coverage of showers could be much less, along with much warmer temps for Thu-Fri. Current forecast has highs in the 70s for most areas Thu-Fri, and 60s for Saturday, however much warmer max temps are possible during this period should stronger east coast ridging/slower frontal system occur.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon ahead of a warm front with showers impacting KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU between 22Z/SAT and 02Z/SUN. The showers will increase in coverage between 02Z-06Z/SUN with cigs/vsbys lowering to MVFR levels with vsbys 3-5SM and cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL. The showers may decrease after 07Z/SUN with patchy to areas of drizzle and the cigs further lowering to IFR/low MVFR levels in the 500 ft AGL to 1200 ft AGL range. The IFR/low MVFR conditions may linger until 14Z-16Z/SUN before some improvement to high MVFR/low VFR conditions (especially cigs).

The winds will be south to southeast at 10-18KT with some gusts 25-30 KT at KALB. The winds will decrease to 6-12 KT early this evening, and be less than 10 KT overnight. The winds increase from the south to southwest at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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Sat -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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