Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scotia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:21PM Friday May 24, 2019 10:49 PM EDT (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:44AMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotia, NY
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location: 42.89, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 250143
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
943 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
As we begin the holiday weekend, winds and clouds will diminish
as high pressure builds into the area overnight. This high
pressure system will quickly depart off the middle atlantic
coastline and allow a warm front to approach Saturday. Clouds
along with the increase threat of showers and thunderstorms
later in the day into the nighttime period as a cold front
sweeps from north to south overnight. A mainly dry day Sunday
into memorial day with seasonable temperatures.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 945 pm edt, clouds are finally starting to erode from
north to south across the southern adirondacks and upper hudson
valley SW vt. This clearing trend should continue expanding
south and west into the capital region and eastern mohawk valley
through midnight, then points south and west thereafter.

However, clouds may linger until close to daybreak across
portions of the westernmost mohawk valley and eastern catskills.

Once clearing commences, winds should trend to calm, and some
patchy fog may form due to the fairly wet ground. Lows mainly in
the 40s across the region, with some upper 30s possible across
portions of the SW adirondacks.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Latest 12z guidance along the cams all suggest the start of this
holiday weekend will begin dry. Then as upstream low level jet
and theta-e magnitudes increase, a warm front will become better
defined through the day. This will result in a region of
enhanced isentropic lift and elevated showers and some embedded
thunderstorms will develop and approach by the afternoon hours
Saturday. The best upper support dynamics is expected to track
across the st lawrence valley where the best convective
concentration is expected. However, the upper flow flattens a
bit as this convection should track further east and south
toward the evening hours. Surface instability appears minimal at
best with showalter values dropping back at or below 0c.

Then some questions about Sunday as initial cool front crosses
the region Sunday early morning, then the secondary cold front
approaches during the daylight hours. Coinciding with the
features will be a mid level dry air so any convection that does
develop would likely be a little shallow and mainly across the
higher terrain. Should be rather mild with around 80f for the
capital region, low-mid 80s for the mid-hudson valley and
southern litchfield county to mainly 70s elsewhere. A rather
brisk day too as wind magnitudes aloft will be rather strong
with occasional gusts at or above 20kts.

Sunday night into Monday, a northerly wind of drier and cooler
air arrives as surface ridge axis slides east-southeast across
eastern canada. So this should keep our weather tranquil and
near seasonable with lows mainly into the 50s and highs mainly
into the 70s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
The extended forecast becomes increasingly unsettled from Tuesday
through the mid-week before drier and more tranquil weather returns
for Friday.

Monday night into Tuesday... High pressure over southeastern quebec
and northern new england shifts eastward Monday night, as a warm
front lifts northeast from the lower great lakes region, and the mid
atlantic states. The h850 low-level jet increases from the south to
southwest with the strengthening warm advection. The isentropic
lift increases for periods of showers stratiform rainfall moving in
Tuesday morning. Some elevated instability is indicated by 12z gfs
by the afternoon into the early evening, so we kept a slight to low
chance of thunderstorms in during the day. Lows will range from the
mid 40s over the southern adirondacks to lower to mid 50s in the
capital district mid-hudson valley and NW ct. Highs on Tuesday will
be surpressed with the rain-cooled air mass with predominately 60s
to lower 70s over the region with maybe a few mid 70s over the mid
hudson valley.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Some ridging over the gulf of mexico,
southeast and florida tries to build northward on some of the medium
range guidance and ensembles, but the mid and upper level flow
remains fairly flat with disturbances sliding over the ridge axis
and keeps it unsettled for wed. The warm front may break through a
good portion of the forecast area Tuesday night into Wed with a
strong cyclone moving through the western and central great lakes
region. MAX temps are a little lower this cycle, but still above
normal for late may, as a more humid air mass builds in with dewpts
getting into the 60s. The latest 12z GEFS has pwats increase 1 to
2+ std devs above normal. There is a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. If some heating occurs, then some strong storms may
be possible with increasing instability to at least moderate levels.

Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s over the higher terrain, and upper 70s to lower 80s in most
of the valley locations.

Wednesday night through Thursday... A cold front slowly translates
eastward through this time frame with another chance of showers and
thunderstorms with still elevated pwats and humidity levels. Some
locally heavy rainfall, and strong storms maybe possible but it is
still early to pinpoint convection and where the placement of the
front will be timed to the peak heating. Temps will be on the muggy
side Wed night with mid 50s to mid upper 60s, and highs will be
similar to wed, except slightly cooler readings are possible north
and west of the capital region.

Thursday night into Friday... A secondary cold front and the mid and
upper trough axis moves trough Thu night with the showers ending. A
cooler and drier air mass builds in with lower, more comfortable
humidity levels with high pressure ridging in from the midwest great
lakes region. Temps moderate closer to seasonal levels for the last
day of may, and possibly a couple degrees below normal.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will build across the TAF sites tonight before
drifting off the coast Saturday. A warm front will approach from
the southwest Saturday evening.

Isolated sprinkles will be possible at kgfl, kalb and kpsf
through around 02z sat. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected
until at least late Saturday afternoon.

MainlyVFR conditions are expected through late Saturday
afternoon. However, patchy fog formation could lead to at least
brief periods of MVFR ifr vsbys CIGS at kgfl and kpsf late
tonight, most likely between 08z-11z sat.

Showers should arrive at kgfl and kalb after 21z sat. Some MVFR
vsbys could occur, especially at kgfl.

North to northeast winds at 5-10 kt early this evening will
become light variable to calm overnight through daybreak
Saturday. Winds will become southeast to south and increase to
5-10 kt by afternoon. Some gusts up to, or greater than 20 kt
could occur at kalb by late afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Memorial day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure will bring a
brief period of fair weather into Saturday morning, then
another fast moving system will bring more showers and possibly
some thunderstorms to the area later in day Saturday and
Saturday night. Warmer for Sunday with isolated thunderstorms
possible with fair and seasonable weather expected for memorial
day.

Hydrology
Mainly fair weather into Saturday morning, then another fast
moving system bringing more showers and possibly some
thunderstorms to the area later in day Saturday and Saturday
night. Higher QPF amounts are expected to the north and west of
the capital district where 1 2 to an inch of rain is possible
with amounts dropping off to about a 1 4 inch across the mid
hudson vally and northwestern connecticut. Warmer for Sunday
with isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly across the terrain.

Fair and seasonable weather expected for memorial day.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Kl bgm
short term... Bgm
long term... Wasula
aviation... Kl bgm
fire weather... Iaa bgm
hydrology... Iaa bgm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY4 mi63 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast57°F51°F82%1020.7 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY14 mi59 minN 410.00 miOvercast60°F48°F65%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------W15
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NE8NE6NE4NE4
1 day ago------------------S8S7SE5SE4S8--S5S5S5--S5S4S6--SW6
2 days ago--------------------NE3--N4N4
G14
----------------CalmW5

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Fri -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:56 AM EDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:26 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.11.71.20.70.92.13.54.55.15.4542.92.11.30.50.10.823.13.84.24.2

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Fri -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:48 AM EDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:18 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.61.10.71.12.33.74.65.25.44.93.82.821.20.40.20.92.23.33.94.34.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.