Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:29 PM   Moonset 2:56 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 170541 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 141 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather returns to the region through today as high pressure builds in. Additional chances for rain showers arrive late Friday night into Saturday, more likely for areas west of the Hudson. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

UPDATE as of 140 AM EDT
A 1016 hPa sfc anticyclone continue to build in over New England. The skies have cleared nicely away from the Mid Hudson River Valley. With light winds and mostly clear skies temps have fallen in the 40s and 50s due to radiative cooling. Some radiational mist/fog will likely form where it rained and in and near the sheltered valleys. We added a little more in the Hudson River Valley, but the previous forecast handled this well. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As the coastal low continues to pull away into the North Atlantic, brief weak ridging builds into the region, bringing a period of dry weather beneath partly cloudy skies through the day on Friday. As 850 hPa temperatures reach nearly 10C, surface temperatures rise some 5-10 degrees above normal to afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in high terrain to mid 70s to near 80 at lower elevations.

By Friday evening, an upper-level shortwave will approach from the west, lifting across the North Country and into northern New England by Saturday morning. Increasing clouds from west to east will precede its passage, with isolated to scattered rain showers reaching into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Friday evening and night. Temperatures remain seasonably mild, reaching overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

Scattered showers may continue through Saturday, particularly west of the Hudson as well as in the southern Greens. Mostly cloudy skies trend clearer by Saturday evening, with showers diminishing by sunset as the upper shortwave exits eastward toward the Canadian Maritimes while ridging builds overhead through early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain pleasant and seasonable, reaching afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s in high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and falling to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A Rex Block pattern looks to set up Sunday through Tuesday with upper level high pressure overhead with an upper level low across the Southeast US. Surface high pressure sets up along the East Coast and will result in a period of mostly dry weather.
The exception could be for some very isolated showers across some higher terrain areas. Temperatures will run above normal with highs mainly in the 70s each day with some lower 80s across the valleys on Monday and Tuesday.

The Rex Block begins to break down by Wednesday as an upper- level trough and surface cold front approach from the west.
Timing of this front remains a bit uncertain but looks to push through during Wednesday night into early Thursday. This looks to bring our next best chance for some showers and a few thunderstorms as guidance suggests some weak instability could be in place.

Forecast confidence begins to decrease for later in the week with either flat ridging or upper-level troughing overhead. For now, will run with the NBM for Thursday which places chance POPs across the region. Thursday would also turn out slightly cooler after the cold frontal passage with highs in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00z Saturday...Conditions have improved to VFR at all TAF sites early this evening, although there are still mainly BKN cigs in place. Clouds should tend to gradually decrease tonight, except for patchy mid level clouds from time to time.
Should more persistent breaks in the clouds occur overnight, there is a window for some fog development given dewpoints in the 50s. This is a conditional threat, so forecast confidence is low. For now will mention TEMPO for MVFR vsby at KGFL/KPSF and also KPOU, which had some rainfall today. Will continue to monitor trends, with a low probability of IFR conditions if persistent fog is able to develop.

Once any fog dissipates, VFR conditions are expected to prevail on Friday, with occasional SCT-BKN mid level clouds.

Winds will be variable around 5 kt or less through Friday morning, then becoming east-southeast around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:27 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Thu -- 12:10 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:19 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Albany, NY,