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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name. |
| Sunrise 7:02AM | Sunset 5:55PM | Thursday February 21, 2019 5:33 PM EST (22:33 UTC) | Moonrise 8:36PM | Moonset 8:32AM | Illumination 94% |  |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 334 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain showers.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west. Rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Sunday night.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. The water temperature off buffalo is 32 degrees.
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain showers.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west. Rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Sunday night.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. The water temperature off buffalo is 32 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201902220415;;297728
FZUS51 KBUF 212034
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LEZ020-220415-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eggertsville, NY
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 42.93, -78.81 debug
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus61 kbuf 212130 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 430 pm est Thu feb 21 2019 Synopsis High pressure will build across the region through Friday night. A strengthening storm system will arrive this weekend. Rain will arrive Saturday night, then a powerful cold front will bring strong and possibly damaging winds Sunday and Sunday night. Near term through Friday Visible imagery showing leading edge of clearing skies pushing northward into the southern tier of new york state. We will likely see this clearing creep a bit further north during the remainder of the afternoon. Farther north, lingering moisture and upsloping may result in some light snow showers east of lake ontario into this evening. A reinforcing cold front will drop across the area tonight as surface high pressure continues to move eastward into the region. Most guidance suggesting cloud cover will fill back in as we get into an upslope flow trapping some moisture underneath inversion. Considerable cloud cover will hinder radiational cooling with low temperatures in the 20s. Areas which remain clear longer could see temperatures lower into the teens. Surface high pressure and associated drier air will continue to build into the region Friday, bringing fair weather and lighter winds. However, a fair amount of cirrus is expected to stream into the region along axis of 120kt jet separating the deep trough over the western CONUS and anomalous upper ridge over the caribbean. Temperatures will be near average in the 30s. Short term Friday night through Sunday night Widespread damaging wind likely Sunday... high pressure will move east of the area Friday night into Saturday with return flow around it allowing for progressively moderating and warming temperatures. As this occurs, the next system that will affect the area moves toward the western great lakes, working to increase the pressure gradient driven southerly flow. This allows 850 mb warm advection to reach a crescendo on Saturday night in advance of the cold front associated with this system moving into the area. Thus, by 12z Sunday, consensus 850 mb temperatures eclipse +10c and even reach +12c on some guidance. Thus, non-diurnal temperature rises are all but a given, yielding readings precariously close to 60f across a vast swath of the lower portion of the CWA early Sunday. This all comes crashing down as a stunningly strong cold front rips toward and through the area from Sunday morning onward. Model guidance has been encouragingly consistent with the deepening, timing, and track of this system. In fact, model clustering is astoundingly tight for a d3-d3.5 forecast, and this only works to increase confidence in a rather hazardous forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. Ahead of the system, rainfall really blossoms in warm advection, however the apex of this seems to largely be north of the area, but with the density discontinuity noted along the front vis-a-vis 850 mb temperature falls from +12c to -6c over a span of 12 hours on Sunday, it would be rather amazing if it failed to rain along the cold front, even with the best forcing to our north. That said, the rainfall will not be the main event with this system. In its wake, the occluding upper level low will drive a mid-level dry slot and associated tropopause fold through the area from Sunday morning onward. This is noted by a drastic drop of the dynamic tropopause well below 700 mb across lake erie with an associated ribbon of starkly drier air that penetrates down toward 800 mb signifying some sort of stratospheric intrusion. That said, this will work to essentially shove all atmospheric momentum below this level and likewise allow for the development of a post-frontal 75+ knot low level jet. The progression of this feature through the area is utterly crushing both in terms of the synoptic features driving it as well as the fact it will be coming through during a diurnally favorable period of mixing out to the surface. Further, substantial drying aloft due to the tropopause fold may yield a period of sun concurrent with its passage. This would only further enhance the mixing potential. That said, bufkit momentum transfer suggests in excess of 60 kts (70+ mph) is possible along the lake erie shore, through buffalo, rochester, and into watertown. Even elsewhere, where high wind gusts are far less frequent, very strong winds will also be possible given this method. That said, a high wind watch was issued for the entire area. |
In concert with the high wind watch, and with a consideration to damage from recent far less intense wind events, as well as rather mobile ice on lake erie, lakeshore flood watches were issued for ice damage along the shore and ice overtopping the ice boom into the niagara river. These effects will be enhanced by a likely lake seiche, however the amplitude of this remains to be seen a bit as guidance isn't really available at this time. Behind the Sunday system, rapidly cooling conditions will favor a changeover to upslope snow showers with a segue to a much colder extended forecast period. Long term Monday through Thursday Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm system moves into the canadian maritimes. A very tight pressure gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting to 40-45 mph through Monday morning. Pressure rises will slow down Monday evening and winds will finally settle down. Cold air advection will also be occurring Monday and Monday night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 deg c by Monday evening. Northwest flow across the lakes will result in lake snows especially east southeast of lake ontario. Subsidence will be increasing during this time so minor accumulations are possible. Mostly zonal flow will persist across much of the north-central conus mid-week. High pressure will move into the great lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Models diverge from there with the 12z gfs developing a weak system that tracks to the south. This may bring accumulating snow to the area Tuesday night-Wednesday night. On the contrary, the 12z ECMWF has high pressure across much of the great lakes through mid-week. Very cold temperatures are also possible into mid-week if the 12z ECMWF pans out. Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday Ceilings will primarily remain in the 35 to 45 hundred foot range through this afternoon. Some patchy MVFR ceilings are possible over the higher terrain. Ceilings will likely lower a bit tonight as a weak upslope flow develops behind a reinforcing cold front. Brisk southwest winds will continue through this afternoon with surface wind gusts of 25-35 kts at kiag kbuf kroc kart. Winds will diminish tonight. Outlook... Friday and Saturday...VFR. Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds. Monday and Tuesday...VFR MVFR with scattered snow showers. Marine Brisk southwesterly winds behind a cold front will support small craft headlines across most of the area into tonight. A powerful storm system will cut through the central great lakes Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, with storm force wind gusts likely. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for nyz001>003-007-010-011-019-085. High wind watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for nyz004>006-008-012>014-020-021. Lakeshore flood watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for nyz001-010-019-085. Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez020. Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez040-041. Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for loz030. Small craft advisory until 7 am est Friday for loz042>044. Small craft advisory until 4 am est Friday for loz045. Synopsis... Tma near term... Tma short term... Fries long term... Hsk aviation... Tma marine... Apffel tma |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 6 mi | 45 min | SW 21 G 25 | 33°F | 32°F | 1019.6 hPa | 22°F | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 15 mi | 45 min | 35°F | 1018.6 hPa | ||||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 21 mi | 51 min | 33°F | 1019.2 hPa | ||||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 27 mi | 33 min | SW 8 G 13 | 38°F | 1018.3 hPa (+2.4) | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 29 mi | 33 min | WSW 12 G 19 | 38°F | 1019 hPa (+2.1) | |||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 42 mi | 33 min | W 24 G 27 | 34°F | 1020.1 hPa (+2.1) |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | |
| Last 24hr | E G12 | SE G12 | E | SE G14 | S | S | S G16 | S G14 | SW G22 | SW G25 | SW G28 | SW G20 | SW G26 | SW | SW G23 | SW G23 | SW G23 | SW | SW G27 | SW G27 | SW G28 | SW | SW | SW G23 |
| 1 day ago | S | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE | E | E | E | E | E | E G8 | E G12 | E G10 | E G12 | E G15 | NE G8 | NE G8 | E | E | E | SE G15 | SE G14 | E G9 |
| 2 days ago | SW | SW | SW | W G15 | NW | NW G17 | NW G13 | SW | W | NW | SE | SE | SE | S | SE | S | S | SW G12 | SW G14 | SW G13 | SW G14 | SW G11 | SW | S |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY | 4 mi | 39 min | WSW 19 G 26 | 10.00 mi | Partly Cloudy and Breezy | 34°F | 26°F | 73% | 1019.3 hPa |
| Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY | 14 mi | 40 min | WSW 15 | 8.00 mi | Fair | 35°F | 27°F | 72% | 1019.5 hPa |
Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
| 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | |
| Last 24hr | SE | SE | SE | SE | S | S | S | SW | SW G24 | SW G30 | SW G24 | SW G25 | SW G27 | SW G29 | SW G28 | SW G25 | SW G25 | SW G26 | SW G30 | SW G31 | SW G35 | SW G34 | SW G30 | SW G26 |
| 1 day ago | SW | SW | S | S | S | SE | SE | SE | E | E | SE | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | SE | SE G20 | SE | SE |
| 2 days ago | W | SW | SW | W | NW | NW | NW | W | W | W | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW |
Tide / Current Tables for
EDIT RT Ports Option Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) HelpTide / Current Tables for
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |