Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eggertsville, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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Fxus61 kbuf 172350 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 650 pm est Sat nov 17 2018 Synopsis A weak cold front will drop across the region this evening with some light snow showers, but otherwise dry conditions. Weak low pressure will pass to our south on Sunday bringing some light snow to the southern tier. There will be some light snow showers during the first half of next week, followed by high pressure and cold and dry weather for thanksgiving. Near term through Sunday A few light snow showers and flurries are flying across our region as a weak cold front drops across. Additional accumulations will be minor, generally less than an inch with this front. Drier boundary layer air will build in behind the front late this evening and tonight. This may result in a brief clearing before mid and high clouds spreading in advance of the next system reach the area. Mesoscale guidance suggests a narrow band or cluster of lake effect snow showers may briefly develop southeast of lake ontario late tonight. Localized accumulations of an inch or two cannot be ruled out, but the vast majority of the forecast area will be dry from late evening on. Winds will shift to the southeast Sunday morning so any lingering lake effect snow will move out over the lake. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens east of lake ontario, and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere. On Sunday a shortwave embedded in a vigourous upper level flow will move across the region. There will be a sharp mid-level thermal gradient across the area, with this shortwave resulting in a period of warm air advection and favorable jet dynamics. Nearly all model guidance shows measurable precipitation across southern areas, with little if any precipitation north of i-90 from buffalo to syracuse. However model agreement and synoptic scale lift supports categorical pops across the western southern tier even if snow accumulation will only be around an inch. Temperatures will remain below normal on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 30s. Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night A 120kt upper level jet will be moving across the northeast while surface low pressure tracks along a stalled front south of western ny Sunday night. Dry westerly flow will be increasing across the eastern great lakes and light snow will be departing the western southern tier through Sunday evening. Cold, southwest flow will lead to the generation of lake effect showers northeast of the lakes Sunday evening. Due to the incoming dry airmass, snow showers will be scattered and light. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20's Sunday night. The mean flow will slowly become westerly by Monday morning and snow showers will move east of the lakes impacting the southtowns and western southern tier and east of lake ontario. Synoptic moisture will increase from the north as a shortwave trough approaches lake ontario. This will likely keep snow showers east of lake ontario with enhancement on the tug hill into Monday evening. With this being said, subsidence and mid-level dry air will still keep snow showers scattered and lackluster east of lake ontario. Snow showers will end east of lake erie by Monday afternoon. Minor accumulations of up to an inch are expected east of lake ontario, mainly on the tug hill. Areas outside of the lakes will remain dry Monday. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30's. A large scale mid-level trough will remain overhead Monday night into Tuesday night. Surface low pressure will track across the northern great lakes reaching lake ontario by Tuesday morning. A

cold front will move across the eastern great lakes and snow showers will track across western and north-central ny. Lake enhancement will produce minor accumulations northeast-east of the lakes by Tuesday afternoon. As flow becomes northwest behind the front, snow showers will persist southeast of the lakes where minor accumulations are possible into Tuesday night. Cold with temperatures falling into the low 20s to teens east of lake ontario Tuesday night. Long term Wednesday through Saturday Second clipper shortwave and associated cold front expected to cross the area Wednesday. At this stage, only looking at some nuisance snow showers and limited lake effect potential. Even though the potential for accumulating snows look limited, those planning to travel are strongly encouraged to stay up to date on the forecast as it doesn't take much snow to cause travel issues. Secondary thermal trough will filter in for Thursday on the front side of an approaching area of high pressure and will bring 850 mb temperatures back down below -15c, resulting in a very chilly thanksgiving day with high temperatures capping in the 20s and wind chills in the teens or colder at times. The much anticipated warm-up is still on track, but a bit later than in previous forecasts. Warmer temperatures will arrive Friday and Saturday with most locations see highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday, and in the 40s with 50 degrees not out of question for Saturday. Precipitation chances will increase Saturday as a rather deep but short-wavelength trough swings through the great lakes. Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday Flight conditions are generally MVFRVFR across the region this evening, and these conditions will prevail through the next 12 hours. Some light snow showers and flurries will fly through the next 6 hours, and may bring reduced visibilities briefly in an otherwise mainlyVFR flight visibility environment. A storm system will track by just to our south tomorrow, and this feature will bring a brief burst of synoptic snow across southern zones, including the kjhw terminal. Expect ifr or lower flight conditions within snow. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...VFR MVFR. Periodic snow showers. Thursday...VFR. Marine Westerly winds will gradually diminish through this evening as surface high pressure builds toward the region. Small craft advisories will continue for the central and eastern waters of lake ontario this evening. A few weak systems may result in a brief increase in winds Monday through Wednesday, but for the most part the first half of the week should be headline free. High pressure will build across the lower great lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... None. Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for loz043>045. Synopsis... Apffel near term... Apffel thomas short term... Hsk long term... Tma aviation... Thomas marine... Apffel thomas

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	6 mi	42 min	W 11 G 14	35°F	41°F		1025.9 hPa	22°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	15 mi	42 min		35°F			1025.9 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	21 mi	42 min		37°F			1025.4 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY	27 mi	72 min	WNW 15 G 18	38°F			1024.7 hPa (+2.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	29 mi	132 min	NW 17 G 19	37°F			1025.4 hPa (+2.7)
45142 - Port Colborne	29 mi	72 min	NW 16 G 19	37°F	47°F	4 ft	1025.7 hPa (+2.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	42 mi	72 min	WNW 15 G 19	38°F			1025.5 hPa (+1.9)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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NE8 G16

E7 G12

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY	4 mi	18 min	W 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	26°F	73%	1026.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	14 mi	19 min	W 6	9.00 mi	Snow	33°F	26°F	75%	1027.1 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)

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W16 G23

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S11 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.