Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:51 PM CST (03:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 906 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst Monday...
Rest of tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming north 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Snow in the late evening and early morning, then snow likely early in the morning. Freezing spray early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Monday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet subsiding to around 1 foot after midnight.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots late in the morning, then backing south early in the afternoon becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201902181100;;106618 FZUS53 KMKX 180306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-181100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Milwaukee, WI
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location: 42.93, -87.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180231 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
831 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Synoptic lift has shifted out of the area with light showers
lingering (away from the lake) with the weakening upper low.

Lake effect bands are apparent on radar into sheboygan and northern
milwaukee ozaukee counties. Thinking these areas, or others in
any heavier, stationary bands could see one half inch per hour rates
for several hours for totals of 3 to 5 inches. Other areas along
the lakeshore impacted by the weaker and less organized bands
could see a another 1 to 2 inches.

Delta t values are 15 and should increase another couple of degrees
early Monday. As 850mb temps cool to -15c, low level lapse rates
steepen and there is saturation in a deep dendrite growth zone
extending from 900 to 650mb, which favors a few inches of lake
effect snow in the more dominate bands. So several inches are
possible since the winds won't change much until around 4 am.

After this time winds over the lake shift to the north which will
push any remaining showers offshore.

Thinking the advisory is ok for now to handle this.

Marine
Gusty northeast winds will become north early Monday. Wind gusts
will diminish Monday afternoon. Waves will reach 4 to 6 feet in
ice free areas. The small craft advisory remains in effect through
mid morning Monday.

High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night,
remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the
east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches.

A small craft advisory may be needed during this time.

Prev discussion (issued 629 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019)
update...

no changes to the forecast.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

expect ceilings of 1500-2000 tonight, occasionally lower in the more
moderate to heavier snow bands in eastern wisconsin. Mainly light
snow will dominate in madison, winding down after midnight. Lake
effect snow will likely impact the lakeshore areas and
possibly ues through about 12z. Winds will shift to the north Monday
morning which will push the lake effect offshore.

Cloud bases will likely become broken around 3000ft later Monday.

Prev discussion... (issued 228 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019)
short term...

rest of this afternoon and tonight... Forecast confidence is
high...

generally light to moderate snow continues across the area this
afternoon. There have been a few bands of heavier snow, which have
reduced visibilities to a half mile or less at times.

Large scale lift will begin to wane late this afternoon into this
evening, as the 850 mb and 700 mb lows rotate through the area.

Light snow showers will likely persist until after midnight, but
the intensity should decrease with time. The exception will be
near the lakeshore, where increasingly favorable winds and falling
850 mb temps will result in lake effect snow taking shape. We will
likely see multiple bands of lake effect snow showers develop this
evening, which should then organize into a single band tonight as
convergence improves. That band will then skirt the shoreline
through the night as winds become increasingly northerly with
time.

We look to be on track for a storm total of 3-6 inches of snow
across the advisory area, with local maxima of 5-6 inches west of
madison and along the lake, and 3-5 in between.

No changes are planned to the area or timing of the winter weather
advisory. For the lakeshore counties, the vast majority of the
snow should be done by 6 am, though a few light snow showers may
linger into the mid morning hours on Monday. Given that any
appreciable accumulation should be over by 6 am, that still looks
like a good end time for the winter weather advisory for this area.

Will continue with a 3 am expiration for the counties to the
west, though at least a few tiers may be able to be expired early.

Monday and Monday night... Forecast confidence high...

high pressure will build into the area Monday into Monday night.

No precipitation is expected, with highs on Monday ranging from
the mid 20s south to around 20 north, and lows Monday night in the
low single digits above zero.

Long term...

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high:
high pressure will build overhead on Tuesday, with plenty of
sunshine expected. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below
normal.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
low pressure passing through the region will bring another shot of
accumulating snow to southern wisconsin Tuesday night and
Wednesday. There are still moderate differences among models with
the track and strength of the low as well as how much drier air
aloft will move in from the south. Models overall have mainly
snow... Though there has been an increasing trend in a loss of ice
aloft across roughly the southeast half of the forecast area on
Wednesday. Thus kept a mention of a mix with freezing rain going.

A blend of model solutions is still giving roughly 3-5 inches of
snow for this period (higher NW and lower se)... Though still
plenty of time for the finer details to change.

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium to low:
high pressure is expected to bring dry weather and near normal
temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

Another low will take aim at the region next weekend. Models are
still not in very good agreement with this system, with a full
range of solutions still in play. There overall picture points to
a decent shot at snow across at least the NW half of the forecast
area, with maybe some rain mixing in southeast. A lot of time for
the details of this one to change. Hopefully the picture will
clear up a bit over the next day or two.

Aviation(21z TAF update)...

ifr will continue today across the area, with occasional drops to
lifr in heavier snow bands. Snow will slowly diminish in intensity
at madison by evening, but will continue further east as a lake
effect band forms. This lake effect will likely impact milwaukee
and kenosha, and may just skirt the waukesha area. Widespread ifr
is expected, with occasional drops to lifr.

Winds will be easterly this afternoon, becoming more northeasterly
with time. Winds then become northerly toward Monday morning.

Marine...

gusty east winds will become northeasterly this evening, and then
transition to northerly late tonight. Waves will reach 4-6 feet in
the ice free portions of the nearshore, and a small craft advisory
continues though mid morning on Monday.

High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night,
remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the
east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches.

A small craft advisory may be needed during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Monday for wiz052-059-060-
065-066-071-072.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am cst Monday for wiz056-062>064-
067>070.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Monday for lmz643>646.

Update... Marquardt
tonight Monday and aviation marine... Boxell
Monday night through Sunday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 9 mi182 min NE 17 G 19 27°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi52 min ENE 12 G 14 27°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 32 mi72 min NNW 5.1 G 11 22°F 1015.9 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 39 mi72 min ENE 8 G 9.9 26°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi60 minNE 103.00 miLight Snow27°F21°F81%1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI12 mi59 minENE 81.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F21°F84%1014.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI19 mi57 minN 91.00 miLight Snow23°F19°F86%1014.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi67 minN 93.00 miLight Snow19°F17°F93%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E14E15SE14E15E14E11E13E13E14E11E14E14E12E15NE13NE15NE15NE14
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1 day agoNW7NW8NW8NW7NW7NW7W7NW5NW5NW5NW4NW4N6N4N4NE10NE11NE10N8NE9NE8NE8E9E12
2 days agoNW17
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NW12NW9NW8NW8NW10NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.