Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:17PM Friday May 24, 2019 11:57 AM CDT (16:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 10:21AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 1105 Am Cdt Fri May 24 2019
Rest of today..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely early in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northwest after midnight veering north early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:201905242200;;388671 FZUS53 KMKX 241605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-242200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Milwaukee, WI
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location: 42.93, -87.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 241058
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
558 am cdt Fri may 24 2019

Update
Showers continue across southern wisconsin with some areas to the
far south seeing a few rumbles of thunder. This is the start of a
very wet day with the potential for severe storms later this
evening. Forecast remains on track.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Temporary MVFR vsbys will be possible this morning with these
showers moving through. The main concerns will come later this
morning with a period of MVFR cigs. However, to the southeast we
should see varying extent of the MVFR CIGS with potential for a
brief period ofVFR CIGS for milwaukee and waukesha in the
afternoon while racine and kenosha may remain withVFR cigs
throughout the TAF period. Any showers will have some concerns for
brief MVFR vsbys.

Into the late afternoon and evening we will begin to have
concerns for scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be strong
to severe with strong gusts and hail the main threat. This will
have some additional concerns for locally heavy rainfall possibly
bringing brief periods of ifr vsbys. Into the evening we will
also have some low level wind shear of 35 kts to 2 kft from the
southwest. The main concerns will be limited into the overnight
period as lower CIGS move out, wind shear ends, with mostly rain
showers remaining, though thunder cannot be ruled out.

Prev discussion (issued 359 am cdt Fri may 24 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

a very wet day ahead is expected with showers pushing in early
this morning in association with an upper level shortwave with
moderate low level moisture. In addition, we will have some low
level frontogenesis with the approaching warm front. Later into
the morning and early afternoon lower level WAA with be the main
source of lift for any showers as the shortwave pushes out with
little to no ll jet support. There will be a little instability
with this as well that should increase throughout the day so some
thunder is certainly possible.

Lack of low level moisture should keep us dry for a period later
this morning into the early afternoon. This would help the region
to warm up and allow the environment to recover somewhat. However
with clouds likely sticking around for the most part we will have
very questionable recovery.

By the late afternoon early evening storms should develop across
the region with threats for severe hail, wind and even tornadoes.

The primary forcing should be in association with the baroclinic
zone with some help from the ll jet strengthening in the evening. Storm
development and corresponding strength will again be heavily
dependent on the environment being able to recover from the
morning. We should be able to recover at least around 1000 j kg of
mlcape with models in disagreement about MUCAPE with amounts
ranging from 1500-3500 j kg (which would affect hail threats). Our
environment will be highly sheared both with deep shear and low
level shear. Our effective shear will be around 40-55kts through
the region with 0-1 km shear around 25-35 kts. This strongly
sheared environment will likely yield rotating updrafts with
storms capable of producing some larger hail as well as the
potential for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, our low to mid level
lapse rates will be around 7 c km and will have rather low lcls
from 500-800m agl further enhancing our threats. The wind threat
will also exist with any storms with the environment having as
much as 1000 j kg of downward CAPE (dcape).

In addition, given long skinny CAPE profiles and precipitable
water around 2 inches we will likely have fairly efficient rain
producing storms. With rain showers storms possible throughout
much of the day into the overnight period we will thus have
concerns for flooding with a flash flood watch in effect from 0z-
12z Saturday.

Long term...

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium to high.

The majority of the weekend will feature mostly quiet weather for
southern wi. Saturday is our warm day.

Showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast wi Saturday morning
as the upper jet weakens. We should be dry and warm during the
afternoon since we will still be well within the warm sector of
the system. Highs should be in the lower 80s across all of
southern wi with a westerly breeze preventing a lake breeze.

We could see another round of light showers or sprinkles across
southern wi Saturday night while we're still within the baroclinic
zone.

The surface front will finally get into southern wi by Sunday
morning which will help keep convection to our south for the day.

This will also bring easterly winds to the area which will keep
lakeshore areas cooler. Inland temps should get into the lower to
mid 70s. There may be another thunderstorm complex that will
track across il on Sunday and that is why we are carrying a slight
chance for showers toward the il border.

Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The next closed upper low over the southwest u.S. Will start to
swing into the center of the country on Monday. Our next round of
showers and thunderstorms may arrive in southern wi late Sunday
night or first thing Monday. It looks like there is decent
synoptic support for strong thunderstorms over the midwest on
Monday. SPC added southwest wi into a 15 percent chance for severe
in the day 4 outlook. With precipitable water values back up over
1.5 inch, heavy rain will be possible once again.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms may be on the heels of
the Monday system either Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is due to
southern wi sitting within the baroclinic zone along this ring of
fire pattern. The upper low will slide across wi Wednesday and
help to temporarily break down the ridge over the southeast u.S..

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Our time within northwest flow will be brief and still feature
small chances for showers later in the week. Temperatures will be
cooler, with highs in the 60s.

Aviation(09z tafs)... Conditions remain quiet for now however
showers will are beginning to push into the region. Initially the
only concerns with these morning showers will be temporary MVFR
vsbys associated with heavier pockets of rain and a chance for a
rumble of thunder. Into the late morning MVFR CIGS will push in
along with continuing showers. Throughout the rest of the day
there will be concerns for MVFR vsbys with showers and MVFR cigs
with potential for a few periods of ifr cigs.

Into the afternoon and evening we will have chances for
thunderstorms for southern wi, which will come with some concerns
for temporary ifr vsbys in thunderstorms. Some of these
thunderstorms may be strong as well with wind gusts and hail as
the primary threats. Into the evening we will also have some low
level wind shear of 35 kts to 2 kft from the southwest. The main
concerns will be limited into the overnight period as lower cigs
move out, wind shear ends, with mostly rain showers remaining,
though thunder cannot be ruled out.

Marine... Some open lake fog may be present over parts of the
lake but this will diminish into the morning. Rain showers and
storms will persist through much of the day today with chances for
stronger storms this evening which may cause some gusty winds
over the lake. Otherwise the day should remain quiet with winds
from the southeast with some gustiness in the afternoon. Winds
will switch to the south and southwest into the evening and
overnight period. Gale force winds are not expected outside of
thunderstorm chances today and possibly again tomorrow over the
lake.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Flash flood watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
wiz059-060-062>072.

Lm... None.

Update... Ark
today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Saturday through Thursday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 9 mi38 min NE 7 G 7 46°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi58 min SSE 5.1 G 6 50°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.3)
45187 30 mi58 min E 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 47°F
45186 39 mi38 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 51°F 51°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 39 mi78 min S 8 G 11 52°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi48 min N 3.9 G 5.8 41°F 40°F1021.1 hPa40°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi66 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast56°F50°F81%1020.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI12 mi65 minSSE 7 G 1610.00 miOvercast54°F50°F87%1020.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI19 mi73 minESE 610.00 miOvercast55°F48°F77%1020 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi73 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain55°F51°F88%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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W9W8NW6NW6NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4E8NE7SE9
1 day agoSE10SE12SE11S14
G19
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G36
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SW10S6SW9SW8SW9SW10SW7SW9W8W8SW7SW9SW10
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2 days agoE9E9E9E11
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SE8SE7SE11SE10SE13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.