Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:48PM Sunday July 22, 2018 10:35 AM EDT (14:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:36PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 610 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Rain this morning, then a chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less. Occasional showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 75 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201807221500;;869007 FZUS51 KBUF 221010 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 610 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-221500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221033
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
633 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over northern pennsylvania will push northwestward across
western new york through this morning. This system will bring a soaking
rain to the majority of our region through the early morning hours...

with the steadier rain then quickly tapering off to just some widely
scattered leftover showers by early this afternoon. Some additional
showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms will then be possible
late this afternoon and tonight as a weak surface trough pivots
northwestward across our region... With humid and rather unsettled
conditions then expected to follow for much of the upcoming week.

Near term through tonight
Low pressure over north central pennsylvania will steadily track
northwestward across western new york through this morning... Before
exiting into western lake ontario early this afternoon. Out ahead
of the low... A swath of moderate to heavy rain will steadily taper
off to some leftover widely scattered showers from southeast to
northwest through midday early afternoon as the low pushes through
our region... And its attendant swath of deep moisture strong forcing
consequently gets displaced further northwestward into southern
ontario. Rainfall totals for the entire event should range from a
few tenths of an inch across the north country to an inch to inch
and a half or so across areas south of lake ontario... With the
latter areas (and especially the niagara frontier) receiving a
much-needed soaking rainfall in the process.

As we move through the afternoon hours... The compact low responsible
for our soaking rainfall will depart into southern ontario... While
a much larger vertically stacked low over the ohio valley pivots an
attendant inverted surface trough northwestward across pennsylvania
and into the western southern tier late in the day. In between these
two features... A swath of relatively drier air and general weak
subsidence should promote mainly dry weather with just some widely
separated light showers for much of the afternoon... Along with some
possible breaks of sunshine. Late in the afternoon the arrival of
the aforementioned inverted trough will then result in an general
increase in both lift and moisture across the southern tier and far
interior portions of the finger lakes... And this in tandem with some
weak diurnal instability should lead to the development of some
additional scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across
these latter areas.

Tonight the inverted trough will pivot northwestward and across the
remainder of the region... With its attendant swath of better moisture
and weak to modest forcing helping to generate some additional
scattered showers and possibly a few more isolated thunderstorms as
it passes. Outside of these... Generally dry weather should otherwise
prevail.

With respect to temperatures... Highs today will range from the mid
to upper 70s across far western new york to the lower to mid 80s
across the lower elevations of the finger lakes and north country...

where a greater potential for some afternoon sunshine and better
mixing should yield the warmest overall temperatures. Lows tonight
will then range from the mid 60s across the southern tier to the
sultry lower 70s across the lake plains... With the warm readings
supported by both an increasing southeasterly low level flow and
steadily climbing dewpoints... Which will rise into the 65-70 range
by the end of the night.

Short term Monday through Wednesday night
Muggy with frequent showers through the period...

an unusual mid summer blocking pattern should prove very beneficial
to our region during this period. An anomalously deep trough locked
in place over the eastern half of the country will provide us with
frequent showers and possibly some thunderstorms. The axis of the
stationary trough will extend from lake huron and lower michigan
southwards across the heart of the ohio valley to the panhandle of
florida. It will not be until late Wednesday and Wednesday night
that a powerful shortwave plowing across the canadian prairies will
finally dislodge the block over the eastern half of the continent.

The true block within this pattern though will be found downstream
where a strong ridge will be anchored in place over the canadian
maritimes. This is the feature that will prevent the aforementioned
trough from being naturally progressive (unlike a closed low) and
will be much more atypical in its mid summer strength and position.

The deep southerly flow generated between this robust ridge and its
counterpart trough will fuel the unsettled weather... As a steady
stream of moisture laden air will make its way northward across the
lower great lakes. Pwat values that will start off around 1.5" on
Monday will climb to 2" as a ribbon of true tropical moisture will
back across pennsylvania and eastern new york to our forecast area
by Monday night. This will not only set the stage for some heavier
showers... But it will make this entire forecast period uncomfortably
humid. Now for some day to day details.

As we open this period on Monday... A deep southeasterly flow will
advect increasing amounts of sub tropical moisture across western
and north central new york. While difficult to time jetlets moving
through a stationary axis of strong h25 winds could help to support
some passing showers during the morning and midday... The bulk of our
shower and thunderstorm activity will be diurnally based... That is
to say driven by thermodynamics. Given the wealth of cloud cover...

it will be tricky to gauge exactly how much instability will be
available for any true convection. That being said... There should be
a minimum of 500-1000 j kg of CAPE simply based on the mid levels
alone. Any significant break in the cloud coverage would allow for
upwards of 1500 j kg of sbcape. As was so astutely pointed out in
previous discussions though... This airmass will only offer tall
skinny CAPE profiles. Since the freezing level will be in the vcnty
of 15kft and there will be a lack of any true focusing boundaries in
the region... The tall skinny CAPE profiles will favor some 'heavy
rainers' and not much more. While the majority of the day will be
rain free... Will maintain the trend of higher pops during the
afternoon with likely pops being used for all but the iag frontier.

Otherwise... It will be warm and quite humid. H85 temps in the vcnty
of 17-18c will support afternoon temperatures of at least the mid
80s across the lake plains and in the valleys. Dew points in the
lower 70s will make it feel some 5 degrees warmer.

The mainly diurnally driven convection will die down during the
course of Monday evening... Although some showers will still be
possible overnight. This will mainly be the case from the finger
lakes to the eastern lake ontario region under the plume of richest
tropical moisture. It will certainly be a night for air conditioners
as the mercury will only drop into the lower 70s across the lake
plains while readings will bottom out in the mid to upper 60s across
most of the SRN tier and parts of the north country.

On Tuesday... There appears to be very little difference in the
forcing and overall thermal profiles across the region. The only
subtle change is that the tropical moisture should be a little
deeper and there could be the presence of a passing shortwave within
a more southerly flow. Again... The bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be diurnally driven with thin cape
profiles and negligible 20kt bulk shear. While this will support
likely pops for the afternoon... The majority of the day should be
rain free with plenty of clouds and uncomfortably high humidity.

As a strong shortwave crosses the canadian prairies Tuesday night...

mid level energy should start to eject out of the persistent trough.

These impulses will push across our region during the overnight and
will likely support more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Will
maintain the likely pops from continuity while forecasting basin
average QPF of a quarter to a half inch.

Wednesday should be the most unsettled day of this 'short term'
period. The once stationary trough over the ohio valley will finally
start to weaken and lift out in response to the strong shortwave
that will be approaching the upper mississippi valley. While the
various guidance packages have different solutions as to how fast
this takes place... They are all in general agreement that the
overall synoptic forcing will noticeably increase. The largest two
lifting mechanisms will be a 100kt h25 jet over quebec (positioning
us under the rr jet entrance region) and a streak of channelled
vorticity established within the axis of the transitioning mid level
trough. This deep lift will interact with the much discussed sub
tropical airmass so that increasingly widespread showers and
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce significant
rainfall. Basin averages should exceed a half inch on Wednesday...

especially for areas east of the genesee valley.

The mid level trough will continue to advance across our region
Wednesday night... While the deep moisture field will be shoved to
the east across new england and extreme eastern new york. This will
encourage the widespread showers and thunderstorms from the evening
hours to gradually taper off to just scattered showers during the
wee hours of Thursday morning... Especially over the far western
counties. Have slowed this process by some 3-6 hours from
continuity.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
The remnants of the mid level trough that was partly responsible for
the plentiful shower activity leading into this period will complete
its journey across our region on Thursday. The associated shower
activity will largely be confined to the finger lakes and eastern
lake ontario regions... As much drier air in the mid levels will
overspread the far western counties.

A strong shortwave crossing the upper great lakes Thursday night and
Friday will then drive at least one cold frontal boundary across our
forecast area. While this could touch off a few showers... Relatively
dry air in the mid levels should enable the bulk of this twenty four
hour period to be rainfree. Will thus shave back a bit on the
pops by going with low chc Thursday night and slgt chc Friday.

The synoptic pattern will have some fall like qualities to it Friday
night and Saturday. While a cyclonic flow from h925 through the
boundary layer will be found across the lower great lakes... Surface
based ridging and a swath of relatively dry air will build across
the area. This will promote dry weather to end the forecast
period... Although had to use slgt chc pops on Saturday due to some
differences in the medium range ensembles in regards to the
amplitude (depth) of the overlying mid level trough.

As far as temperatures are concerned... This period will start off
quite warm with h85 temps in the mid teens supporting Thursday
temperatures in the mid 80s f. In the wake of at least two cold
frontal passages though... H85 temps should drop to nearly 10c. This
will lead to a day to day lowering of temperatures so that we may
actually be a couple degrees below normal for Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Low pressure over north central pennsylvania will track northwestward
western new york through this morning... Before pushing on into
southern ontario this afternoon. Out ahead of the low... A swath of
moderate to heavy rain will steadily diminish from southeast to
northwest through 18z with the passage of the low center.

In terms of flight conditions... Most areas can expect a period of
ifr to MVFR conditions this morning... With any ifr being predominantly
driven by lower ceilings across the higher terrain and areas of upslope
northeasterly low level flow across far western new york. Once the
steadier rain tapers off... Flight conditions should then rebound
fairly quickly to MVFRVFR from southeast to northwest... With any
lingering MVFR receding to the higher terrain.

Following the departure of the steadier rain... Most areas will be
mainly dry this afternoon... Until another surface trough attendant
slug of moisture approaches from the southeast late in the afternoon.

Coupled with the development of some weak diurnal instability... This
could result in the redevelopment of some additional scattered showers
and possible embedded thunderstorms across the southern tier and
interior portions of the finger lakes during the late afternoon and
early evening hours.

As we move through tonight the aforementioned trough will pivot
northwestward across the area... While helping to generate some
additional scattered showers in the process. Otherwise dry weather
will prevail along with a mix of flight conditions that should
range from predominantlyVFR across the lower elevations to MVFR
renewed ifr across the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday... Scattered to occasionally more numerous showers
and thunderstorms with attendant MVFR... OtherwiseVFR.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Low pressure over northern pennsylvania will track northwestward
across western new york through this morning... Before pushing into
southern ontario this afternoon. Out ahead of the low... A brief
period of rather brisk northeasterly to easterly winds will affect
the south shore of lake ontario this morning... Before veering to
southeasterly and rapidly diminishing this afternoon. For this
reason small craft advisories remain in effect for the south shore
of lake ontario from the niagara river to mexico bay. Elsewhere
winds across the lower niagara river and eastern lake erie look
to be weaker than previously forecast owing to the closer approach
of the low center... So have dropped the advisories previously in
effect for these areas.

Looking further ahead... A prolonged period of unsettled weather
is expected for most of next week... As a warm and humid airmass
will support frequent opportunities for scattered to occasionally
more numerous showers and thunderstorms... Along with attendant
locally higher winds and waves. Outside of these... Winds and waves
will generally remain below small craft advisory levels.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
nyz003-004.

Beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
nyz001-002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
loz042>044.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi35 min ENE 7 G 11 67°F 1006.6 hPa (-0.8)58°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi35 min 66°F 1006.5 hPa (-1.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi41 min 65°F 1005.9 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 25 mi35 min ENE 7 G 13 65°F 1005.8 hPa (-2.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi35 min E 14 G 16 60°F 1006.8 hPa (-1.7)
45142 - Port Colborne 28 mi95 min E 14 G 16 66°F 73°F2 ft1005.7 hPa (-1.2)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi35 min SE 1 G 2.9 65°F 1006.3 hPa (-0.7)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 42 mi95 min NNE 21 G 25 66°F 71°F4 ft1005.9 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi41 minENE 99.00 miLight Rain65°F63°F93%1005.7 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi42 minE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1005.5 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS10S11
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2 days agoW9SW6W8S8S7SW6CalmW3SW5NE8NE9E7E8E7E5E5SE4SE5SE7SE8SE7SE8S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.