Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skaneateles, NY
May 20, 2024 3:20 AM EDT (07:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 4:46 PM Moonset 2:58 AM |
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nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 422 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-200315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 422 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 422 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-200315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 422 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 200705 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
After mostly clear skies and valley fog tonight, mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected on Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
630 PM Update:
Main change with this update was to remove the slight chance PoPs for the Catskills-Poconos since it is unlikely that any showers will form. Even if something does pop up, any precipitation will likely not be measurable. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Setup looks good for radiational valley fog to form overnight.
3 PM Update
Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling and with plenty of low level moisture (low dew point depressions), valley fog will likely develop over the region.
There is some question as to how extensive the fog will be, and if if can reach some of the mid elevation locations as well. It will be seasonable overnight, with lows in the 50s.
Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm and 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 567dm.
With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep most of the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity.
Once again there is a small chance that terrain and or some lake breezes will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap, over the Central Southern Tier and SW Finger Lakes but odds are low (20%). The rest of the region will see the fog burn off by mid morning, then mostly sunny skies. The latest trends in the bias corrected guidance is increasing temperatures even more...with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the valley locations...with upper 70s to low 80s over the higher elevations. Winds will be light west-southwesterly under 10 mph.
High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night, with perhaps some patchy valley fog again. It will be milder, with lows only dipping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will move off the east coast Tuesday night. This will result in a continued warming trend through Wednesday with southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at both Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Highs Thursday trend several degrees cooler with the frontal passage.
A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. The instability part has been fairly consistent on the operational models and respective ensembles if we can get some convection in the afternoon and evening Wednesday and or Thursday. A first look at model soundings shows steep low level lapse rates with some mid-level dry air as well later Wednesday. With a fair amount of shear as well, the potential is present for some strong storms with gusty winds and hail.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Seeing some signal in the ensemble guidance along with the latest 00Z 5/20 ECMWF that the front may check up not to far south of the area Thursday night through the weekend. So while the upcoming weekend looks mainly dry, isolated showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out across NE PA closer to the front. Temperatures trend cooler with lows in the 50's and in the 70's generally.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Clear skies have lead to some fog development already that will expand through the remaining of the night. Dry air at BGM and AVP has lowered confidence in the severity of the fog so the lowest restrictions were put into a tempo rather than predominant. ELM has already seen some fog but once the high clouds moving overhead clear the fog will return. Relative humidities at ITH and SYR are already near 100% so decided to add some IFR restrictions as fog development is looking more likely.
Fog clears out by 13Z this morning with VFR conditions expected at all terminals thereafter.
Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
After mostly clear skies and valley fog tonight, mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected on Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
630 PM Update:
Main change with this update was to remove the slight chance PoPs for the Catskills-Poconos since it is unlikely that any showers will form. Even if something does pop up, any precipitation will likely not be measurable. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Setup looks good for radiational valley fog to form overnight.
3 PM Update
Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling and with plenty of low level moisture (low dew point depressions), valley fog will likely develop over the region.
There is some question as to how extensive the fog will be, and if if can reach some of the mid elevation locations as well. It will be seasonable overnight, with lows in the 50s.
Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm and 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 567dm.
With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep most of the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity.
Once again there is a small chance that terrain and or some lake breezes will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap, over the Central Southern Tier and SW Finger Lakes but odds are low (20%). The rest of the region will see the fog burn off by mid morning, then mostly sunny skies. The latest trends in the bias corrected guidance is increasing temperatures even more...with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the valley locations...with upper 70s to low 80s over the higher elevations. Winds will be light west-southwesterly under 10 mph.
High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night, with perhaps some patchy valley fog again. It will be milder, with lows only dipping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will move off the east coast Tuesday night. This will result in a continued warming trend through Wednesday with southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at both Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Highs Thursday trend several degrees cooler with the frontal passage.
A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. The instability part has been fairly consistent on the operational models and respective ensembles if we can get some convection in the afternoon and evening Wednesday and or Thursday. A first look at model soundings shows steep low level lapse rates with some mid-level dry air as well later Wednesday. With a fair amount of shear as well, the potential is present for some strong storms with gusty winds and hail.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Seeing some signal in the ensemble guidance along with the latest 00Z 5/20 ECMWF that the front may check up not to far south of the area Thursday night through the weekend. So while the upcoming weekend looks mainly dry, isolated showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out across NE PA closer to the front. Temperatures trend cooler with lows in the 50's and in the 70's generally.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Clear skies have lead to some fog development already that will expand through the remaining of the night. Dry air at BGM and AVP has lowered confidence in the severity of the fog so the lowest restrictions were put into a tempo rather than predominant. ELM has already seen some fog but once the high clouds moving overhead clear the fog will return. Relative humidities at ITH and SYR are already near 100% so decided to add some IFR restrictions as fog development is looking more likely.
Fog clears out by 13Z this morning with VFR conditions expected at all terminals thereafter.
Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 36 mi | 50 min | SSE 1G | 61°F | 29.93 | 59°F | ||
| 45215 | 39 mi | 54 min | 60°F | 62°F | 0 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY | 20 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.97 |
Binghamton, NY,
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